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13th November - A big draw awaits

achan88 said:
I don't think that all 19 previous draws will have much of an effect statistically. The next cut-off will most likely be affected most by the 19th draw cutoff being 489 and the longer duration between that and the 20th. The score could go higher possibly. Here is hoping for the best. :D
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Indeed. CIC is just unpredictable!
 
Statistically speaking there have been 2 draws per month except in May. If this trend continues we should see a draw happening this Friday. But then again past draws do not have anything to do with the current situation in CIC (refugees, PNPs, etc.)
 
expect 3 draws at least before end of the year .....lets see if draw comes down to 470-460 levels in next draw.
 
alex_dinou said:
Statistically speaking there have been 2 draws per month except in May. If this trend continues we should see a draw happening this Friday. But then again past draws do not have anything to do with the current situation in CIC (refugees, PNPs, etc.)
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I was wondering if it is a confirmed fact that the same staff would be processing refugee applications?
 
I think it will be the same staff processing the refugee applications. Why do I say this? Well I think that to work at CIC it takes time to recruit, train and run a background check (absolutely vital when handling large amounts of confidential data). The training of staff would take a large amount of time. You would think that processing refugee applications would require a lot more though, skill, care and foresight.

As the clock is ticking, the number of working days between now and the New Year only 33 (I assume they will not work weekends, Christmas Day and Boxing Day (brought fwd to Mon 28 Dec) as 26 Dec falls on a public holiday. That makes 757 applicants per day. As I said in another post if you were a CIC officer, would you want to process extra economic migrant applications? I think the vast majority of us (in that position) would say no.

Hence, my conclusion (in my humble opinion). No draw before the New Year. If there is one (or more) I think they pick a high number to process a minimal amount of applications.

I imagine I will get criticism for this post and am happy to eat humble pie (if I am wrong).
 
JoacRy said:
I think it will be the same staff processing the refugee applications. Why do I say this? Well I think that to work at CIC it takes time to recruit, train and run a background check (absolutely vital when handling large amounts of confidential data). The training of staff would take a large amount of time. You would think that processing refugee applications would require a lot more though, skill, care and foresight.

As the clock is ticking, the number of working days between now and the New Year only 33 (I assume they will not work weekends, Christmas Day and Boxing Day (brought fwd to Mon 28 Dec) as 26 Dec falls on a public holiday. That makes 757 applicants per day. As I said in another post if you were a CIC officer, would you want to process extra economic migrant applications? I think the vast majority of us (in that position) would say no.

Hence, my conclusion (in my humble opinion). No draw before the New Year. If there is one (or more) I think they pick a high number to process a minimal amount of applications.

I imagine I will get criticism for this post and am happy to eat humble pie (if I am wrong).
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agree
 
JoacRy said:
I think it will be the same staff processing the refugee applications. Why do I say this? Well I think that to work at CIC it takes time to recruit, train and run a background check (absolutely vital when handling large amounts of confidential data). The training of staff would take a large amount of time. You would think that processing refugee applications would require a lot more though, skill, care and foresight.

As the clock is ticking, the number of working days between now and the New Year only 33 (I assume they will not work weekends, Christmas Day and Boxing Day (brought fwd to Mon 28 Dec) as 26 Dec falls on a public holiday. That makes 757 applicants per day. As I said in another post if you were a CIC officer, would you want to process extra economic migrant applications? I think the vast majority of us (in that position) would say no.

Hence, my conclusion (in my humble opinion). No draw before the New Year. If there is one (or more) I think they pick a high number to process a minimal amount of applications.

I imagine I will get criticism for this post and am happy to eat humble pie (if I am wrong).
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I hate to say it but I think you're right .
 
Bahamas said:
The interval between the last draw and the next one was so long, the CSR score will be high. There are just so many more applicants in the pool 21 days later.
The shorter the time between draws, the better the chance the CSR will be lower. 1,500 new applicants are added every week.
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absolutely right .................. me here with 396 ;D ;D ;D ;D
 
Simply because there is a draw does not mean that they will need to process the applications immediately, right? As far as I know, those who received ITAs in the past did not submit the applications immediately and some took almost 2 months to get all the documents together.

So while I agree that in situations like this, it is better to be a little pessimistic in order not to be disappointed, there is a theoretical possibility that the draws will continue, but the applications from such draws, if submitted before the end of the year, will not be processed until 2016.

JoacRy said:
I think it will be the same staff processing the refugee applications. Why do I say this? Well I think that to work at CIC it takes time to recruit, train and run a background check (absolutely vital when handling large amounts of confidential data). The training of staff would take a large amount of time. You would think that processing refugee applications would require a lot more though, skill, care and foresight.

As the clock is ticking, the number of working days between now and the New Year only 33 (I assume they will not work weekends, Christmas Day and Boxing Day (brought fwd to Mon 28 Dec) as 26 Dec falls on a public holiday. That makes 757 applicants per day. As I said in another post if you were a CIC officer, would you want to process extra economic migrant applications? I think the vast majority of us (in that position) would say no.

Hence, my conclusion (in my humble opinion). No draw before the New Year. If there is one (or more) I think they pick a high number to process a minimal amount of applications.

I imagine I will get criticism for this post and am happy to eat humble pie (if I am wrong).
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Ok, this is a speculation thread and guys are having a field day with their crystal balls out?! :)
 
ybjianada said:
Simply because there is a draw does not mean that they will need to process the applications immediately, right? As far as I know, those who received ITAs in the past did not submit the applications immediately and some took almost 2 months to get all the documents together.

So while I agree that in situations like this, it is better to be a little pessimistic in order not to be disappointed, there is a theoretical possibility that the draws will continue, but the applications from such draws, if submitted before the end of the year, will not be processed until 2016.
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Nah, that creates a backlog. They definitely do not want backlog to grow, since there're still FSW 2014 and CEC 2014 pending.
 
Finger crossed for today!!!
 
Crazy stuff going on... From June I watched all 450+ draws passing by with tears in my eyes because I scored only 415. Now after taking second IELTS and increasing the score to 464 I have doubts that the cut off will drop to this level with all these refugees to process.

Feel really frustrated :'(
 
Russian said:
Crazy stuff going on... From June I watched all 450+ draws passing by with tears in my eyes because I scored only 415. Now after taking second IELTS and increasing the score to 464 I have doubts that the cut off will drop to this level with all these refugees to process.

Feel really frustrated :'(
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You are not alone buddy! Same thing with me, I retook the IELTS to increase my CRS from 392 up to 478.
 
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