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11,353 ITAs issued, and cap is 68,000. What is your interpretation?

H

hamoonExpressEntry

Hero Member
Jan 23, 2015
272
27
Canada
Category........
NOC Code......
2174
Job Offer........
Pre-Assessed..
Nomination.....
21-09-2015
Hi guys and gals,

The cap for CEC and FSW (not including PNP) for 2015 is set to 68,000 people. We are half way through 2015 and the number of ITAs issued stands at 11,353. Can people share their wisdom on this matter? Does this mean that we are gonna see an increase in the number of ITAs soon? Specially now that EE has passed its trial period and fixed issues and bugs?

Here is the link to caps:
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp
 
I remember I read somewhere that the cap for number of ITAs issued for 2015 is 25,000. Is that true? Can somebody post a link to this info if that's true? If true, how is it really make sense? Are there other ways for FSW and CEC to get PR other than EE? I don't think so
 
hamoonExpressEntry said:
Hi guys and gals,

The cap for CEC and FSW (not including PNP) for 2015 is set to 68,000 people. We are half way through 2015 and the number of ITAs issued stands at 11,353. Can people share their wisdom on this matter? Does this mean that we are gonna see an increase in the number of ITAs soon? Specially now that EE has passed its trial period and fixed issues and bugs?

Here is the link to caps:
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp
Click to expand...

As you can see the notification was issued on November 6, 2014 - since then there has been drastic change in Canadian Economy. In particular, the Oil and Gas industry has seen thousands of job losses. Oil production accounts for about 9 per cent of Canadian GDP - http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/12/17/canada-exposed-oil-prices-cibc_n_6337486.html

Canadian currency Loonie is performing lowest since April 2009

There is not enough jobs for people within Canada and during these circumstance how can we expect they will bring in more people to burden the economy.
 
What you are saying makes total sense. However CIC must update this list if that's Ministry's will. If the ministry issues 100,000 permanent residencies while they said it is going to be 250,000, they have to answer for that in the Parliament, don't they? Considering we are so close to an elections, the current government would do anything to evade such questions in the Parliament. So I think that page is still valid until CIC issues a new quota.

By the way, 11,000 out of 68,000 is less than 1/6th of 2015's quota!
 
Here is the link you might want to refer -

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp
 
Did you mean to post another link? Because this is the link I posted too.
 
hamoonExpressEntry said:
What you are saying makes total sense. However CIC must update this list if that's Ministry's will. If the ministry issues 100,000 permanent residencies while they said it is going to be 250,000, they have to answer for that in the Parliament, don't they? Considering we are so close to an elections, the current government would do anything to evade such questions in the Parliament. So I think that page is still valid until CIC issues a new quota.

By the way, 11,000 out of 68,000 is less than 1/6th of 2015's quota!
Click to expand...

Absolutely I agree with you. In my opinion, people within Canada as well are hoping to see a global Oil and gas price rebound any time. It all depends how OPEC takes there stance.
Rightly mentioned about elections, this the biggest reason why everybody is avoiding to comment on. There is a big majority of people who are migrants. Thus, no body wants to loose votes :)
 
Is there anybody who is sure on the following query:
Does these number (21,000 or 47,000) include depnendents (spouse or kids)?
Or is it just the applicant?
That will make a huge difference.
Thanks
 
sanybhai said:
Is there anybody who is sure on the following query:
Does these number (21,000 or 47,000) include depnendents (spouse or kids)?
Or is it just the applicant?
That will make a huge difference.
Thanks
Click to expand...

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp
We will have 51,000 (FSW) + 23,000 (CEC) + 48,000 (PNP) = 122,000 people = 122,000 / 3 = 40,666 invitations counting on 3 people per invitation average
 
sanybhai said:
Is there anybody who is sure on the following query:
Does these number (21,000 or 47,000) include depnendents (spouse or kids)?
Or is it just the applicant?
That will make a huge difference.
Thanks
Click to expand...

From what I understand, dependants fall into the family category.
 
ajanoni said:
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp
We will have 51,000 (FSW) + 23,000 (CEC) + 48,000 (PNP) = 122,000 people = 122,000 / 3 = 40,666 invitations counting on 3 people per invitation average
Click to expand...

These numbers don't make sense for several reasons:
1. The PNP number of 48,000 refers to the non-ExpressEntry PNP programs of the provinces and has nothing to do with nominations for Express Entry and associated ITAs. Express Entry is for FSW and CEC only.
2. These numbers are the number of Permanent Residencies granted this year, not the number of invitations to apply for PR. Every single person who applied in 2014 but got their application approved in 2015 counts towards that number. That is the majority of all 2014 applicants. So feel free to reduce the 122,000 by a loooot since it is eaten up by those 2014 (2013, 2012, 2011,...) applicants that get their PR this year.

So again: This number has nothing to do with the number of ITAs this year.
 
spyfy said:
These numbers don't make sense for several reasons:
1. The PNP number of 48,000 refers to the non-ExpressEntry PNP programs of the provinces and has nothing to do with nominations for Express Entry and associated ITAs. Express Entry is for FSW and CEC only.
2. These numbers are the number of Permanent Residencies granted this year, not the number of invitations to apply for PR. Every single person who applied in 2014 but got their application approved in 2015 counts towards that number. That is the majority of all 2014 applicants. So feel free to reduce the 122,000 by a loooot since it is eaten up by those 2014 (2013, 2012, 2011,...) applicants that get their PR this year.

So again: This number has nothing to do with the number of ITAs this year.
Click to expand...

1. Express Entry is for all PNP with exception to Quebec. Even though some provinces aren't connected directely in the system, at the end everybody will have to fill in a EE profile with the information of PNP invitation.
2. We have a base on the past to predict the future. One invitation is not counting as one person. In my case, one invitation will have 3 people once that my wife and daughter are going with me.
 
The way CIC is giving out ITA doesn’t look like the ITA will go above 25000 in this year.
Still so many provincial nominations to come. So, points will stay high. If there is a draw today, that will tell a lot about their planning.
This is the number of ITA they have issued in last two months:
april 1640
may 1,361
In june they have already issued 1,501. I wont be surprised if there is no more draw this month. Also, seems like they have started to stick around 1500 ITA per month. So, we might see another 9000(6*1500) ITA this year. That won’t bring the score below 460.
So total ITA will 11353(so far) +around 9000=20353 for 2015

Also agreeing with hamoonExpressEntry, I remember reading somewhere about 20000-25000 ITA to be issued this year. Very unfair to CEC candidate who were refused last year due to the CEC global cap reach. I am not one of them. But it’s pretty unfair to them.
 
ajanoni said:
1. Express Entry is for all PNP with exception to Quebec. Even though some provinces aren't connected directely in the system, at the end everybody will have to fill in a EE profile with the information of PNP invitation.
2. We have a base on the past to predict the future.
Click to expand...

1. No, Express Entry is not for all PNP. Go to this website for instance:
http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/index.htm
There you will see that Ontario has an Express Entry stream but also has a program called "Opportunities Ontario" which is their PNP program not related to EE. Thats why the list on this website:
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/skilled/index.asp
says "as a provincial nominee, IN SOME CASES"

2. I don't get what you mean with that. CIC programs change every year. Using numbers from last your to predict this year means basing predictions on numbers that don't apply. It's comparable to predicting this year's potato production based on how much chocolate was produced last year.
 
You may want to take a look at the below thread :

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/really-want-to-understand-immigration-targets-read-this-t279551.0.html

Thanks to Dan_and.
 
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