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Correct!

No firm idea, this is absolutely the business of cic

Even wid 1000 candidates of 600+ cutoff will be 460 +/-1 for 21st Aug But for 28th Aug, cutoff should be in higher 460s

Answer depends on if there is a draw on 21st Aug or not If yes, u have some chances If no, then no chance As 21st August draw is going to bring down the CRS to 460 +/- 1 459- 70% chances 460, 461- 30% chances

Next draw can happen on 21st or 28th both, below are the supporting points In favour of 21st Aug: 1. In 12th Aug draw, data shown up to 2nd Aug, means there was a plan to conduct draw on 7th Aug and then on 21st Aug, but 7th Aug draw got delayed 2. Cic could have easily conducted draw on 28th...

Considering FST in sep, elections in Oct, cic would not like to create a gap in Aug, so good possibility of draw on 21st

well, going by ur calculation, 190 per day addition of 466+, In next 9 days 190 x 9 = 1710 more such candidates will be added So after clearing these 1710 of CRS 466+ remaining ita = 3600-1710 = 1890 Now accumulation of 460 to 466 would be approx 1400 by 21 Aug So after clearing all up to 460...

Little addition in para 1 When score dropped from 465 to 462 last time , at that time accumulation was 4+2+2= 8 weeks If there is a draw on 21st accumulation would be of 4 weeks So 4 weeks lesser accumulation means a lot. However, nobody knows about PNP approvals in next 9 days, it can be 400...

Nobody knows

What was ur pnp draw date?

Majority of them still remaining

However I seriously doubt jus 500 PNP approval in next 9 days, actually no one knows, it’s a guess on basis of past 19 days

I think that batch has already started receiving 600 points and participated in today’s draw as there were 474 above 600 10 days ago on 2nd aug

So one thing is clear, if there wasn’t a 5 day delay, CRS would have fallen a little despite of approx 1000 , 600+ candidates

As u asked for rough idea, so here it is with minimum calculation: As most of the 466 are cleared so I consider CRS as 465 which means in 19 days 3600 candidates having score > 465 were added So if a draw happens after 9 days then how many 465+ would be added in 9 days as compared to 19 days=...

Moreover, most of 466 are clear, this draw is almost 465 despite below: 1. 5 days extra addition of 460+ candidates ( 5 x 185 = 925 extra candidates) 2. Approx 1000 candidates of 600+ So overall, great show

If the draw was to happen on 14th then there were lesser chances of 21st draw But a draw today is increasing the probability of draw on 21st

U r through if draw is on 21st

If cic is to conduct a draw on 28th Aug, then there was no need to have an irregular draw on Monday, so I think the draw should be on 21st Aug

Pool data of 2nd Aug means that probably cic was going to conduct a draw on 7th, but couldn’t.