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Even if you ask 10 times no one can give you a definite answer. You will hear all kinds of responses, hang in there it will, IRCC is unpredictable, anything can happen, no chance, it will stay above 440, try to improve your score to above 440 etc. Based on the current trend though, I would...

I know there is almost no chance but will wait for an hour and a half (till noon EDT) for a draw today. Would love one.

You're asking for the worst case scenario? I expected lot less people to enter the pool per day without IELTS result but that didn't happen. So, the people entering per day will be much higher next time keeping the score at 440 or may even increasing a little bit. Hey, you asked for it!! June...

It is going to help 430s but not significantly. That's the only hope though for people like us in the 430s. Score lowers couple of points each time a back to back draw happens. I see it staying at 440 and increasing back to 441 unless the draw size increases and/or back to back draw happens...

I am shocked that many people entered the pool even without the IELTS. I am worried too that it will stay at 440 or go to 441.

Absolutely right! I expected to score to be a little less but too many people entered the pool even without an IELTS result. I am worried that the score would be the same (440) or 441 in the next draw. I want a back to back draw or a higher draw size to bring it into 430s.

Good luck to you and to everyone in 430s. I hope big percent of the draw will be available to people under 440.

All 440s are good. Get your beer.

Nothing is guaranteed and with completely different trend in applications, IRCC structure, quota increase etc. we cannot just compare a scenario from last year to now. However, an IELTS free draw would reduce daily new entries thereby reducing the score. How much does it reduce the score, again...

Actually, not true. Number of people applying has increased a lot since late last year but it has been on downward trend since March. I don't see the cut off suddenly increasing to 442. It will be lower than last time for sure but how low depends on number of people entering per day. It was 150...

May I suggest getting a new husband.;)

Depending on the type of IELTS test you take, you can get the TRF number in the online report or use a online number generator. Either way, people will be in the draw. We are good for Wednesday though. Of course, there is a always a possibility of people guessing the number incorrectly or using...

Actually it is much higher than that if it happens on Wed or Thur, more like 75% which is almost a sure shot considering where we are (ROH). If it happens on Friday or later, with the IELTS result out, the chance would drop to 25%. I hope that is not the case, I want to see all 439s and even...

Even without looking at the poll, it is obvious that there are big pools on two scores between 435 and 440. I was guessing 435 and 438 (or 437) and still think that is the case. I am at 435 (and voted in your poll) and need a couple of big draws to clear those two hurdles. I think it is...

What do you mean by "job offer from own company"? You mean start a company or if the existing company you're working for in US or London etc. and they have a branch in Canada, get them to give you a job offer?

Number of PNP candidates will not be high enough to offset the people with no IELTS result. So, the overall change would be very little. I would guess that we will not see more than 200 PNP people getting ITAs in the next draw. 437 is my best case scenario. Chances of that happening are not that...

How did you get 88000 for 2018? I see only 74500 + 3%-5% for declined ITAs, total should be around 80,000. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2018.html

Why would that be a catastrophe? The total number of ITAs will be the same and will be made up by significantly increasing the draw sizes later on. That means if there is no draw for a month (which is highly unlikely), the several next draws will be around 6000 each which will bring down the...

Draw 90 on May 23rd for 3500 : Worst Case Scenario: 2100 (100 to 150 per day over 440 without IELTS result (normally 150 to 250, average 200)) 500 (100 to 500 PNP nominations) 500 (remaining people on score 441) 400 (500 to 1000 people on score 440) Cut off 440 with tie breaker. Best Case...

You're right but it takes time for all of this to happen, could be years before implemented. Most people here are hoping they would get ITA and PR soon and cannot wait several months or even several weeks. They are observing every draw carefully, making all kinds of calculations and predictions...