FSW WORLDWIDE

[suzanne456]

Hang on, the backlog for FSW is 50k persons. Can someone crunch the numbers for how 41K ITAs contributes to 50k backlog? Don't forget that the backlog also includes pre Sept 2020 AORs. I seem to be missing something here. Did a good portion of ITAs not transform to AORs?

It did, based on a sample obtained from immitracker it seems close to 80% of people who received ITAS before September 2020 have already got their PPR. So the majority of IN PERSON numbers in the 49k backlog seems to be from the ITA lot post September, also recall there was a hiatus of all program draws from march to September.

If you do a cursory check and filter for AOR sept 2020 - mar 2021, you'd see a lot of blue. as in unprocessed. if you filter for before September, its majority ~ 80-90% in the green, as in having received PPRs. But a grain of salt, immitracker represents a sample, but a good slice of the sample.

 

[suzanne456]

It's not like they haven't touched the late 2020 AORs at all. Some of them have gotten PPRs already.

Not from Ottawa, but it seems they are starting to work on this

 

[seadrag0n]

If an applicant is a person from a 3rd world country with some health issues, the remedical request is inevitable, as I think. So, the problem is WHEN this person will receive it: it could be in March, June or even tomorrow. Sitting still and waiting, I believe, is just useless wasting of priceless time. So, if I were that person, I'd go for upfront in order to have a bit of chance to expedite the process. I think $250 is a fair price for boosting an application.

In the meantime, I assume that there's a certain procedural vulnerability/weakness in IRCC's business processes which we can use as a bug in a computer program: every time IRCC gets any document from an applicant, officers have to check it and upload to his or her application. So, if they get a new medical report, I believe that IRCC's doctors have to validate it and update the application even if they planned to extend the previous medical status but still haven't done it.

But please, take into considiration that all written above is just a single man's point of view and assumtions. I could be wrong.

I am also assuming this and going for upfront re-meds, better than to sit on your ass and do nothing.

 

[suzanne456]

is there a way to export immitracker data to an excel?

 

[FurioGiunta]

Hang on, the backlog for FSW is 50k persons. Can someone crunch the numbers for how 41K ITAs contributes to 50k backlog? Don't forget that the backlog also includes pre Sept 2020 AORs. I seem to be missing something here. Did a good portion of ITAs not transform to AORs?

It did, based on a sample obtained from immitracker it seems close to 80% of people who received ITAS before September 2020 have already got their PPR. So the majority of IN PERSON numbers in the 49k backlog seems to be from the ITA lot post September, also recall there was a hiatus of all program draws from march to September.

If you do a cursory check and filter for AOR sept 2020 - mar 2021, you'd see a lot of blue. as in unprocessed. if you filter for before September, its majority ~ 80-90% in the green, as in having received PPRs. But a grain of salt, immitracker represents a sample, but a good slice of the sample.

If we start from July 2020 (when FSW restarted), we have 49400 ITAs. If we say 10% ITAs don't transform to AORs (which seems high to me) or got rejected at R10, then we have about 44k AORs. Assuming an average of 1.5 persons per application, this is about 66k persons. Which means at least 16k persons from this window have already been processed. I'm assuming this would be mostly July, August ITAs and some post Sept ITAs. However, I haven't seen a lot of July, August AORs getting approval on social media.

 

[HA1986]

If we start from July 2020 (when FSW restarted), we have 49400 ITAs. If we say 10% ITAs don't transform to AORs (which seems high to me) or got rejected at R10, then we have about 44k AORs. Assuming an average of 1.5 persons per application, this is about 66k persons. Which means at least 16k persons from this window have already been processed. I'm assuming this would be mostly July, August ITAs and some post Sept ITAs. However, I haven't seen a lot of July, August AORs getting approval on social media.

If folks at IRCC were doing their job we won't need to wreck our heads with such calculations. Just be transparent and give people a timeline so that they could manage their expectations. That's not a big ask. The bitter truth is we're not being treated as stakeholders in the process. We are being treated like cattle.

 

[Fasih Khan]

I'm a dentist and with NOC 3113. As you know that in Canada, this profession is highly regulated. Is there any chance or any PNP pathway through which I can apply?

 

[Shahrivar]

how long should an individual wait before they have a meaningful response to his submitted application?

My response-
This Canadian legend / immigration lawyer / ex ircc officer states,

Yes, they don't have to approve the application. However, they are responsible for processing and finalizing the applications and eventually notifying the applicant about the outcome. The outcome might be rejection but you could move on with your life but making the applicants wait for years is beyond ridiculous.

 

[charp]

Sorry to say but some applications would be refused as well. Some people in this forum have claimed that, even in express entry, the refusal rate is 20-30 percent but I think and HOPE that it’s in the range of 5-10 percent only. Also, I think they have set the high range of FSW at 64000 for this year so there is a high chance that every post AOR applicant may get a PPR this year as long as your application is not refused.

P.S- and just to add a small caveat: everyone would land as long as COVID, World war, another humanitarian crisis are averted and Sean Fraser doesn’t become MM’s alter ego.

 

[FurioGiunta]

Sorry to say but some applications would be refused as well. Some people in this forum have claimed that, even in express entry, the refusal rate is 20-30 percent but I think and HOPE that it’s in the range of 5-10 percent only. Also, I think they have set the high range of FSW at 64000 for this year so there is a high chance that every post AOR applicant may get a PPR this year as long as your application is not refused.

High range of FSW+CEC is 64,000, not just FSW. So we should subtract 15k CEC backlog plus whatever CEC + FSW already landed this year.

 

[IncredibleCanada]

Guys, really bad news and brutal for one's waiting for ITA.

Can someone explain -

1. TR2PR program is closed and according to the CICNEWS back in november backlog appx 17500. So not getting what is 40K for after backlog?

https://www.cicnews.com/2021/11/canada-has-a-backlog-of-nearly-1-8-million-immigration-applications-1119651.html#gs.p6j7l0

2. IRCC works round the year and they know ITA after June land in next year but draw did not stop June in a year looking at the history. So number of ITA is sent some where near to the total spots available in EE. Is there confirmed there won't be new ITA this year?

 

[Impatient Dankaroo]

Sorry to say but some applications would be refused as well. Some people in this forum have claimed that, even in express entry, the refusal rate is 20-30 percent but I think and HOPE that it’s in the range of 5-10 percent only. Also, I think they have set the high range of FSW at 64000 for this year so there is a high chance that every post AOR applicant may get a PPR this year as long as your application is not refused.

P.S- and just to add a small caveat: everyone would land as long as COVID, World war, another humanitarian crisis are averted and Sean Fraser doesn’t become MM’s alter ego.

There's a new enemy now too, the Chinook system

 

[cansha]

Guys, I’m flying to Australia tonight.

For anyone who’s wondering how I ended up here - went to Australia for bachelors but had to leave as I had no pathway for further visa. So applied for masters. Spent 10 years in Aus trying to get PR but didn’t have enough points. Left Australia and started looking at Canada, missed the Dec 2020 draw by 2 weeks and again life came to standstill. Thankfully after lot of efforts I got employer sponsored PR in Aus.

Even now I’m heading there on money I’ve borrowed from friends as I quite literally have no money nor do my parents but it’s a new start for me.

My point being don’t lose hope and do whatever u can with the time u have… we’ll eventually get to our destination.

Congrats dude! Aus is better weather wise. Plus having spent time already there you will have no problem adjusting. All the best!

 

[dankboi]

So what happens with the PNP AOR's 2022?

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

So what happens with the PNP AOR's 2022?

They are publicly executed