Based on some very rough calculations, there are 45k slots in persons left as of Feb 1 (based on 800 per week for FSWP, and 2/3*9400 CECs processed since DEC 15), there is a backlog of 49 (FSW)+15k (CEC)=64k. Based on the processing speed and available information, it can be reasonably assumed that CEC's will all be processed first and onboarded in the coming few months. That leaves 30k slots for FSWPs. 19k of this lot will get booted to 2023. If it is FIFO, then if my AOR is towards the latter of NOV DEC 2020 or early 2021. Then I should manage my expectations for a 2022 landing?
There were 34K ITAs issued from Sept 2020 to Dec 2020 before draws closed for all programs. Is it reasonable to assume that majority of the remaining 49k in the FSWP backlog are individuals who received ITAS towards NOV, DEC 2020, as their AORs most probably fall in 2021?
Let me break it down to you... Sorry if I sound a bit jaded...
Canadian processing is FIFO ONLY in its First and Last step, ie intake and finalisation. Apart from that, it is FIFO as in Fist in Fist Out and yeah it is that brutal. Basically it goes through all the steps in different places and can be held anywhere for any duration of time. So, no, it is NOT First In First Out in any sense of the word.
Rest of the steps can take random amount of time depending upon complexity of your program, if the VO is having a constipation, if the there is war in Ukraine or Afghanistan and so on and so forth. Don't try to guess how long it will take, but IRCC suggests it should take only 6 months ie if your case is simple.
Arbitrarily any application can become "complex" -- meaning it cannt be processed by a monkey who hit its head on a wall at child birth. And when that happens, for example IRCC liked your dog's photo and wanted to see more of it, and it sent an ADR for it, now your application is "complex". Complex applications have all the bets off. They can be delayed for the time frame starting from when True-Dough gets his first period to the thermal death of the universe.
So there you have it... Trying to predict your finalization or landing date is an exercise in frustration. I heard they torture Iraqi war prisoners by making them predict waiting and wait for Canadian PR applications. This was the dirty truth behind the Guatemala prison.