The issue is that my best friend back home in the UK is getting married next year in June and wants me to be his best man. I obviously want to go
OVERALL/SUMMARY: The discussion so far has fairly well covered the essence of the matter: There is no risk-free way to leave Canada while in breach of the Residency Obligation. And, meanwhile, there is no reliable way to precisely quantify the risk, that is, to calculate the probabilities, the "odds" some of us might say.
It is the OP's personal decision whether to avoid the risk of a negative RO examination upon returning to Canada, or to take the risk in order to attend festivities abroad.
As
@scylla succinctly put it, and others have emphasized and elaborated on:
The only real way to reduce risk is not to leave.
THUS . . . Leaving Canada risks a RO examination upon returning to Canada, which could result in being Reported and Issued a Removal Order, terminating PR status unless there is an appeal and the Report and Removal Order is set aside.
Not leaving Canada avoids the risk of a decision terminating PR status that could happen upon returning to Canada.
Other factors influence how much risk there is. Generally I agree with the observations by
@armoured, including reference to factors suggesting cause to apprehend elevated risks (such as the character of the previous interaction at the PoE), and some factors likely reducing or mitigating the risks, such as
Yes, you having a full time job in Canada and staying a good solid year is a positive.
and, very much so, the reference to so "
many variables" . . . making it very difficult to quantify the risks.
So, the "safe" approach, the no-risk decision, is to stay in Canada.
I have no input into discussions about what the rules should be and it does not appear to me the OP was asking about that.
Apart from that . . .
What Difference It Might Make Depending On How Long A PR Has Been A PR:
Some discussion above raised questions about why there might be a difference in approach, in RO enforcement, in regards to a "
new" PR (less than five years since landing) versus someone who has been a PR longer than that. There is, of course, no difference for purposes of eligibility for Canadian benefits, so long as the individual actually meets the eligibility requirements for the benefits. And as long as the PR complies with the PR RO, there is no direct restriction or limitations imposed on a PR based on how long they have been a PR.
What I have occasionally reminded the forum, however, is that the purpose underlying the grant of PR status is an important factor in how the rules are interpreted, applied, and enforced. Again, this is about what the law is, including its purpose, not about what some think the law should be. The purpose of the law (readily apparent in the legislative record and specifically articulated in numerous IAD and Federal Court decisions) is to facilitate a path to PERMANENT settlement IN Canada. This is not about permanent status in Canada, but about actual, physical permanent settlement in Canada. For those granted PR status to settle and live in Canada permanently.
The law does not directly require those granted PR status to actually settle and live in Canada permanently. Its purpose, nonetheless, is important and has a real impact. Among the ways in which this influences policies and practices, and especially the manner in which the rules are interpreted and enforced, two in particular loom large:
-- RO compliance and cutting-it-close--
When PRs are cutting-it-close, relative to complying with the PR RO, and they have been a PR for more than five years, that tends to indicate they have not followed through consistently with the purpose for which they were granted PR status. Those cutting-it-close after five years have been living outside Canada more than in Canada. That is inconsistent with coming to Canada to settle and live here permanently. So that invites concerns, questions, which invites increased scrutiny, potentially increased skepticism, potentially influencing CBSA or IRCC decision-makers to make less favourable inferences. Reminder: what the law allows is not necessarily concurrent with the law's objective, with its purpose. Those who fail to discern the difference, and rely strictly on what the law allows, and act inconsistent with the law's purpose, do so at their peril. They put themselves at risk of the law being strictly applied against them, strictly enforced, and close-call-issues not going their way.
-- Breach of RO and H&C Relief --
This is where a pattern of not settling in Canada permanently can really bite. Who CBSA immigration or IRCC officials or IAD decision-makers will conclude deserves an opportunity to keep PR status, despite breaching the RO, must necessarily take into consideration the purpose of the grant of PR status, which again is so the person can settle and live in Canada permanently. For someone who has been a PR more than five years, and who still remains so NOT settled in Canada, let alone permanently, that they have been outside Canada more than 3/5 of the time during the last five years, out of Canada well more than in Canada, means they have acted inconsistent, rather blatantly inconsistent, with the purpose for which they were given PR. To say this hurts the equities calculation in their H&C case is probably an understatement. Bad outcome rising (to abuse a CCR song title).
AND A Clarification:
I'm worried that I won't be able to get back in to Canada
The other comments here probably make it clear enough, but just to be sure: the risk is not that you will not be able to get back into Canada. You will be allowed entry into Canada.
Worst case scenario at the Port-of-Entry is being issued a 44(1) Report which is upheld on review by a second officer, resulting in a Removal Order being issued, which will ordinarily happen while you are still present in the PoE. Y
ou would then still be allowed to ENTER Canada, since the Removal Order is NOT enforceable for at least 30 days, and if you appeal you will be able to stay in Canada pending the appeal, since the Removal Order continues to be unenforceable as long as the appeal is pending.
This is actually significant for a PR who has established in-fact residence in Canada more or less permanently, which not only should reduce the risk (but, for emphasis, NOT eliminate the risk) of being "Reported" upon returning to Canada after a short trip abroad (emphasis on
short), but even if Reported, should also reduce the risk of a final outcome after appeal resulting in the loss of PR status.
This observation should NOT be understood to diminish any of the cautionary comments others have posted. I offer it for context. Many of us are gamblers in various ways. I suspect most immigrants have taken some fairly big gambles on their way to a life in Canada. It is one thing to say "
do not gamble." Quite another to make real life choices involving important but competing interests. Personal values, personal preferences, in conjunction with all those circumstantial variables (as
@armoured referenced), not the least of which are personal resources (if there is an appeal, it could really help if you can afford a good lawyer), not to mention some very difficult to predict contingencies, all come into play.
It is your decision to make.
Without elaborating, I would acknowledge there are some factors here mitigating the odds of being Reported. It warrants remembering, however, that the probability of a bad outcome is only part of the risk-assessment calculation. The severity of consequences is a big factor as well. After all, odds playing Russian Roulette are very favourable, actually, five to one there will be a good outcome (no bullet in the brain). But the severity of the outcome otherwise renders that gamble, well, suicidal.
Which is to say, even if the odds were good you would not be Reported and issued a Removal Order when you return, the severity of losing PR status still make it a bad bet for most.
If you were married to a Canadian who could sponsor you again if you lost PR status, even if the odds of being Reported were higher, it might not be a bad bet.
It is your decision to make. Based on your situation, your circumstances, your values and preferences.