FSW WORLDWIDE

[GandiBaat]

But most conservatives are, 54% of them feel that the immigration level is adequate. While that is lower than Liberals (75%), Bloc (70%), and NDP (81%), 54% is still a majority. In addition 80% of Canadians, in general, believe it has a positive economic impact.

https://www.cicnews.com/2021/11/canadians-remain-largely-supportive-of-immigration-new-survey-finds-1119585.html

By the way, PPC is anti-immigration, but they're still promoting a 150K immigrant target down from 401K that the Liberals are targeting.

I mean, all of a sudden something can happen and everyone in Canada can become extremely anti Immigrants. Magic and Black swan event occur and thats the real world for you. I do not discount that. But then, people totally discount that what is happening for long is likely to continue.

I am living in this country. I have seen local businesses protesting because not enough students are coming in 2020... Why? It keeps their bottom-line +ve. People are not stupid. They can certainly see which side of the bread has butter.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

It does not. If you account for fringe (massive nationalist movement in Canada similar to Trumpism in USA) and negative situation (from immigration situation) they I believe you should also atleast consider data for what is really happening right about now. Data from PEW polls, statement of mainstream parties in their election manifestos. These reflect the mood of Canada quite accurately. Especially political parties manifesto. Heck, EVEN conservatives were not inclined to reduce immigration levels. EVEN PPC, the far most right wing party in Canada was asking for lower immigration. Far right parties in likes of UK/US have asked for COMPLETE shutdown of immigration.


You DO realize that ;

1. Score is NOT priority in processing. Its only priority to be invited to apply.
2. In 2014, many folks had to wait for 3 to 5 years to get their application even looked at.
3. We had a massive pandemic till atleast May-July 2021. Heck, my office has been on complete work from home since March 2020 till date. It will be like this till Jan 2022 ATLEAST. Not saying that it is justified that Canada is no longer inviting folks even after pandemic is in control, but it is still a far cry to what used to happen in first half of 2010s.

We are arguing about different things. I never said anything about processing times. But even with regard to processing, FSW applications are rejected at the slightest mistake, and it has been implied that TR to PR is taking time because people are being given second and third chances to correct mistakes.

You said it isn't getting more difficult to immigrate. To immigrate you need to get invited. It IS without a doubt more difficult to get an invite now. It has been entirely skewed towards people rich enough to get an additional (often useless, in immigration circles) degree. Scores don't matter and that is EXACTLY my point. They designed a points based system and entirely rendered it meaningless without any official statement about it. A properly implemented system would have made an official statement about it, and PNPs would have adjusted accordingly. People are effectively being punished for having scores too high. Great system. Now it just boils down to luck and pre-existing wealth. Sounding a little more similar to the American system (although not anywhere close to being quite as bad).

 

[seadrag0n]

I mean, all of a sudden something can happen and everyone in Canada can become extremely anti Immigrants. Magic and Black swan event occur and thats the real world for you. I do not discount that. But then, people totally discount that what is happening for long is likely to continue.

I am living in this country. I have seen local businesses protesting because not enough students are coming in 2020... Why? It keeps their bottom-line +ve. People are not stupid. They can certainly see which side of the bread has butter.

Let's say Canada decided to stop immigration completely and ride out the economic fallout as a result of this, how bad things can become?

 

[kloppity]

The average Canadian doesn't even know, or care how you got to the country. Half my coworkers (and you'd assume they'd know better since there are very well read folks) assume alot of us 'foreigners' are actually Canadians. Alot don't even know there are actually temporary residents in the country.

Those are not people who will change their views in the short-term, they have no views about immigration in the first place. It would take a monumental shift in perspective for Canada to get to the anti-immigration levels of the likes of Australia.

 

[kloppity]

Let's say Canada decided to stop immigration completely and ride out the economic fallout as a result of this, how bad things can become?

I don't think the country itself will feel it completely as long as they keep funneling in temporary workers (from the litany of programs they have going) and international students. I don't have data on this but I wager both those group contribute more than their fair share to the economy.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

I always wonder..
You know, EVEN the pollsters like Nate Silver have trouble in predicting outcome of elections that are JUST couple of months to JUST FEW weeks away and here you are... telling us that Trump has a strong chance of winning in 2025. Where you get this all confidence? What data you refer to?

Let me tell you how real world works. Till Jan 2020, all was going well for Trump. Stock markets were record high, unemployment was dropping and record low. Then came the pandemic and BOOM he got pushed out. Point being, no one freakin knows what will happen in 2025. Trump may suffer a stroke and die for all you know.

The future past 1 year or so is always uncertain. Especially in political landscape.

I'm basing this on the most recent data point, the presidential election. More people turned up to vote for Trump than they did in 2016 right? Biden barely won. And this was with increased voter access. Now with the increased voting restriction laws being passed in swing states (I said this exact same thing, and you chose to ignore it), the 2025 race will be close. At the end of the day, the narrative is pushed by the winner. And Trump and his cult is loud as fuck. I wonder where you get your data of his popularity going down.

Since you mentioned Nate Silver, here you go:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/were-tracking-trumps-and-harriss-popularity-ahead-of-the-2024-presidential-election-yes-its-early/

"His popularity took a dip following the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, which meant that his overall favorability was quite low when we began tracking those numbers in February. But as you can see in the chart above, Trump’s favorability numbers have more or less returned to where his approval rating was before the insurrection.

To be sure, Trump is still more unpopular than popular with the American public as a whole. Yet, despite Trump’s overall unfavorability, as my colleague Nathaniel Rakich wrote about last week, the majority of Republicans want Trump to run for president again, with polls suggesting that Republicans overall thought Trump had a positive impact on politics. "

Again the point here was the guy implied that trump's popularity was reducing. I said it wasn't, which is what you commented on. You wanted data, here it is. There are other sources that I can look up if you want. I don't have any need to push a specific narrative. I'm just basing this on what I'm reading and trying to remain as conscious about bias.

I'm sure you'll ignore the nuance in the article (or likely not read it at all) and continue to double down. In the end, if you and that fucktard nns want to paint me the bad guy and talk shit, go for it. Good luck.

 

[GandiBaat]

We are arguing about different things. I never said anything about processing times. But even with regard to processing, FSW applications are rejected at the slightest mistake, and it has been implied that TR to PR is taking time because people are being given second and third chances to correct mistakes.

Look, you only said this : "it totally DIDN'T take me 3+ years to make zero progress despite being the top 5% of scores.". Score gets your foot in the door. Besides that, it does nothing. Nothing at all. Getting ITA is easy or atleast it was easy till 2020 beginning. So if you have top score for past 3 years, getting ITA should have been easy for you at least in 2019.

Past 2 years have been difficult for out-side canada applicants. No doubt about it. That does not mean that immigration is getting harder. Its simply pandemic and IRCC's inability to move its arse fast enough. Give it another year, and very likely it will get as easy as in 2019.

Now in terms of processing, TR to PR is a brand new stream on a brand new portal (AFAIK). It has bugs and that gave them the flexibility as a compensation. I mean FSW and CEC are treated equally like shit in terms of how hard the rules are applied on them during processing. Again, once TR to PR becomes a regular fixture (if it does), it will end up being same as CEC and FSW.

You said it isn't getting more difficult to immigrate. To immigrate you need to get invited. It IS without a doubt more difficult to get an invite now. It has been entirely skewed towards people rich enough to get an additional (often useless, in immigration circles) degree. Scores don't matter and that is EXACTLY my point. They designed a points based system and entirely rendered it meaningless without any official statement about it. A properly implemented system would have made an official statement about it, and PNPs would have adjusted accordingly. People are effectively being punished for having scores too high. Great system. Now it just boils down to luck and pre-existing wealth. Sounding a little more similar to the American system (although not anywhere close to being quite as bad).

Can you say the same till 2019? Before the pandemic hit? Very likely when they will re-start issuing invitation, in 2022, will you still be able to say the same? Exception do not define the norm. The entire pandemic has been a massive exception everywhere.

I am working from home for about 2 years now. It was unthinkable in 2019.

 

[dankboi]

 

[PRANIT01]

@dankboi is it the look waiting for PR/ITA.lol

 

[dankboi]

@dankboi is it the look waiting for PR/ITA.lol

noh, just wondering about the ongoing discussions happening here. I'm out of the loop, past few days I been chillin, sleeping, digging in for ppr folks and drinking.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Look, you only said this : "it totally DIDN'T take me 3+ years to make zero progress despite being the top 5% of scores.". Score gets your foot in the door. Besides that, it does nothing. Nothing at all. Getting ITA is easy or atleast it was easy till 2020 beginning. So if you have top score for past 3 years, getting ITA should have been easy for you at least in 2019.

Past 2 years have been difficult for out-side canada applicants. No doubt about it. That does not mean that immigration is getting harder. Its simply pandemic and IRCC's inability to move its arse fast enough. Give it another year, and very likely it will get as easy as in 2019.

Now in terms of processing, TR to PR is a brand new stream on a brand new portal (AFAIK). It has bugs and that gave them the flexibility as a compensation. I mean FSW and CEC are treated equally like shit in terms of how hard the rules are applied on them during processing. Again, once TR to PR becomes a regular fixture (if it does), it will end up being same as CEC and FSW.


Can you say the same till 2019? Before the pandemic hit? Very likely when they will re-start issuing invitation, in 2022, will you still be able to say the same? Exception do not define the norm. The entire pandemic has been a massive exception everywhere.

I am working from home for about 2 years now. It was unthinkable in 2019.

You're literally making my point for me. No it wasnt like this in 2019. I missed the boat (again luck) because they skipped draws and the scores shot up to 470, which was a very high score back then (now it's barely considered passable). I was at 456, which was comfortably above any previous scores. But this wasn't a problem. There was still a points based system, and if I had a better score, I'd get invited. Then they changed the rules without ever officially changing the rules. It will not get nearly as easy as you think.

There has already been an indication that TR to PR will come back, and that again means if you're a student in Canada, you get a free PR. So sure, it's going to be much easier for them. But the for outsiders, direct PR is always going to get more difficult. master's plus 3 years work exp is pretty much getting to be the norm. Throw in a bit of mediocre french to get a few points and get an edge. Meanwhile, Master's plus 1 year of exp was more than adequate until May 2019. May 2019 scores went to 470, then took until September 2019 to get to 457, then they skipped a draw again, and scores jumped again to 465+ (don't remember the exact number here). The average scores were already on the rise even in 2019. The pandemic just supercharged this. In other words, yes, it was already getting more difficult to immigrate to Canada as an outsider before the pandemic.

Again, we don't have to agree. Hopefully you don't need to stoop to nns' level though.

 

[GandiBaat]

Let's say Canada decided to stop immigration completely and ride out the economic fallout as a result of this, how bad things can become?

In Canada, a lot of senior people have their wealth locked in their houses and real estate. IF immigrations is stopped completely, capital gain will go negative because there is not going to be any increase in population plus no incentive for anyone outside canada to put money in the real estate. That alone will deal a death blow to people's finances in Canada. Thats cancellation of majority of Canadian retirement. It will be a blood bath.

 

[Windsor37]

Yeah but polls change quickly, and that's just over half, and that doesn't mean that there won't be lower favourability among other political groups too in the future.

I don't think immigration to Canada will ever dip below 150k, but obviously that's a big difference from almost 400k now.

I don't think immigration will ever fall out of favour completely, but the likelihood that people will want to have immigration numbers reduced is certainly possible.

Also with polls you can always find one which says different things, this is a poll which states the opposite for example:
https://toronto.citynews.ca/2021/06/28/canada-immigration-target-poll/

Technically if 39% of them are saying that it's too high, won't the remaining 61% means either they're ok with the number, or they want to raise it.

 

[Alysson]

In Canada, a lot of senior people have their wealth locked in their houses and real estate. IF immigrations is stopped completely, capital gain will go negative because there is not going to be any increase in population plus no incentive for anyone outside canada to put money in the real estate. That alone will deal a death blow to people's finances in Canada. Thats cancellation of majority of Canadian retirement. It will be a blood bath.

Property value kinda needs to go down soon though. It has become the main target for all parties this election. So I think they can't continue to delay actions for this.

 

[GandiBaat]

Property value kinda needs to go down soon though. It has become the main target for all parties this election. So I think they can't continue to delay actions for this.

IF Canadian real estate went down by 10% it won't have a single scratch on affordability nor on the capital of the old-timers who are holding houses since 2000s. Trouble is, if it goes down by 50%. And that can happen if there is population contraction in the scenario that there is a complete shutdown of immigration.

When Canadian politicians say, we should correct the house prices, they think about 5-10%. That won't matter if the prices have risen by 50% in past two years. If that is reversed, then almost everyone will be in a world of pain.