FSW WORLDWIDE

[ElvisRamaj]

Yes the but 95700 is the total raw number. That adds up all streams. But when we talk about FSW backlog, we need to focus more specifically on how that raw number is split. Lets just take 2020 ITAs and 2021 approvals.

68100 all program (FSW mainly) ITAs were given in 2020. 17245 from 2020 were approved till date in 2021 if we add up 2021's 5115 approvals and generously assume half the 2020 approvals were of 2020 applications.

If you look at CEC, 32215 and 97653 ITAs were issued in 2020 and 2021 respectively (129858 total). 87190 total were approved till date in 2021 if we add up 2021 approvals and assume half the 2020 approvals were from 2020 applications. The fact that just 32215 were given ITAs in 2020 but there are already 79795 approvals in 2021 indicates that they are working on newer CEC applications instead of clearing the FSW backlog. They have openly mentioned that they are working on finalizing March/April 2021 CECs now.

Yes, IRCC is working at faster rates. But question is what they are working on. They have decided to take the CEC route to show the 6 month processing speed and annual numbers. Going back to old FSWs will slow their current processing rates for new applications and they will see it as a vicious cycle. This strategy of making the numbers is what got marco promoted in the cabinet. Nobody knows when they will pick up FSW. So it's hard to tell from the overall raw processing numbers. The only way I see this ending next year is through some massive class action lawsuit

There is one small wrong detail in your analysis!

1 ITA is not equal to 1 admission to permanent resident, because 1 ITA can be 4 family members.

Yea, I know it sucks.

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

All I'm saying is that there is absolutely no reason for them to want or need to resume FSW. They have an endless supply of students, CECs, TFWs and now PNPs, that they will NEVER have to resume FSW again.

Well, they always had that supply. Why did they go on with all program draws for 10 years?

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Well, they always had that supply. Why did they go on with all program draws for 10 years?

The pandemic forced them to conduct CEC only draws, and they've discovered the advantages of excluding FSW. Quicker processing, faster landing, more money into the country. Yes, they've always had that supply, and the pandemic made them realize it. Simple.

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

The pandemic forced them to conduct CEC only draws, and they've discovered the advantages of excluding FSW. Quicker processing, faster landing, more money into the country. Yes, they've always had that supply, and the pandemic made them realize it. Simple.

Doubt it. I know IRCC is dumb as rocks but we're talking about one of the most popular government processes of Canada. They publish annual reports on efficiency and whatnot, it's quite unlikely they just figured out CEC was faster. They share the avg processing time on all programs every year; it has been clear that CEC is faster for 10 years.

It's just the backlog now. They don't wanna go the 2012 way because there's now EE; all the image they've built would shatter. Can't help but wait at this point. CEC isn't coming back in 2022 or later. We'll see new inland streams as the liberal party said before but that's about it.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

The data indicates that they are processing almost in the same speed CEC applications and other new streams that were introduced this year.

What the IRCC and what the new minister will do for the year 2022 we will understand it from the memo in November, hopefully.

In other words, what I am trying to say is that at the current speed, all applications submitted until now will get a decision by the end of April 2022, expect the complex ones.

So, if we will not have any new more streams announced by the minister, no CEC draws until January, then I believe the All Program draw will resume. Those ITAs sent in January, will start to get processed by the beginning of May with almost full attention of the IRCC.

Well, all I can say I appreciate your attitude towards this, and I really appreciate how it isn't nauseating naiveté masquerading as "optimism". We'll see what happens in January. Nothing would make me happier than being wrong about this. But I won't be.

 

[Windsor37]

Oh yeah of course there's some correlation between ITA numbers and PPRs (or consequently, landed immigrants). Look, I'm not making any comment on what they will or won't do. All I'm saying is that there is absolutely no reason for them to want or need to resume FSW. They have an endless supply of students, CECs, TFWs and now PNPs, that they will NEVER have to resume FSW again. They may still choose to resume it at some point, but if you think they will eventually have to, because they need FSW for some reason, you're mistaken. FSW is obsolete, and it's a matter of time before the program is abandoned.

Okay I got it. But even if they issued PPRs to 10k expired CoPRs and PNP, that still leaves the number around 40k. Which is a massive chunk of their 2022 quota.

But they will run out of CECs and TFWs, these people are being brought into Canada via LMIAs. LMIAs as of now are quite difficult to get, since it requires the company to prove that there's no Canadian skilled enough to do the job, and that would merit giving the candidate a work visa.

If they retire FSWs, they must make a mechanism that will simplify a company petitioning for an LMIA. While this is not unfathomable, it reduces the power of the feds to control the immigration policy and population growth, especially since they would be beholden to the Canadian company who petitioned the LMIA.

I think FSW cannot be removed, replaced by something, modifed or changed, yes, maybe, but as it stands there's no alternative mechanism to increase the country's population without giving too much power to private institutions.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

But they will run out of CECs and TFWs, these people are being brought into Canada via LMIAs. LMIAs as of now are quite difficult to get, since it requires the company to prove that there's no Canadian skilled enough to do the job, and that would merit giving the candidate a work visa.

If they retire FSWs, they must make a mechanism that will simplify a company petitioning for an LMIA. While this is not unfathomable, it reduces the power of the feds to control the immigration policy and population growth, especially since they would be beholden to the Canadian company who petitioned the LMIA.

I think FSW cannot be removed, replaced by something, modifed or changed, yes, maybe, but as it stands there's no alternative mechanism to increase the country's population without giving too much power to private institutions.

No, they will not run out of CECs and TFWs for the next few years. The ease of getting PRs after study will certainly drive more students to Canada. They have already indicated their desire to bring back TR to PR next year. Sure they won't retire FSW, but they'll keep it in limbo fr 3-4 more years. Pieces of shit like my will be 40 by the time we get to Canada. What once used to be something striving towards a fair system (not without its faults) is now something driven entirely by your ability to pay for university in Canada, or you already being a citizen of a first world country.

 

[dankboi]

Like I said in my post "like they did in 2020". They did CEC only draws from January to roughly July 2020. They can easily repeat that because now they have precedent. They have reduced the numbers and halted invitations because of the shift in focus to refugees, and the fact that they already have more than enough ITAs issued to meet the high end of this year's targets. Because of this temporary halt in ITAs right now, they may want to resume CEC only draws to get a head start on their 2022 targets because they're easier to process than FSW. Realize that they also have around 50k FSW applications in the pipeline already, many of them close to completion. That's already half of their 2022 targets. Once they have enough of a backlog of CECs in the pipeline, they may reluctantly resume FSW in the second half of 2022. They have absolutely NO reason whatsoever to resume FSW. They may feel sorry for us and have a couple of FSW draws, but we aren't refugees, old, or tourists from rich countries. So I doubt they'll actually do that.

The fact that they're still being sheepish about it and not giving any concrete statements is indicative of their intention to do the same thing they've done in 2020/2021.

The fact that they're still being sheepish about it and not giving any concrete statements is indicative of their intention to do the same thing they've done in 2020/2021.

This ! i believe cause that's what we have been seeing from 2020 december

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Here's the thing people don't seem to realize. We are sitting here flattering ourselves by thinking they're intentionally holding back FSW. They're not. They aren't even thinking about FSW. This stream is so irrelevant and disposable in their minds that they haven't even bothered to issue a statement about it for almost a whole year. Meanwhile it's work as usual for IECs, students, grandpas and tourists. They don't care about the status of FSW, and if you had to be honest with yourself, they have absolutely no reason to care about FSW. It is an irrelevant stream. They know it, and we know it. Some of us choose to deny it.

 

[dankboi]

Here's the thing people don't seem to realize. We are sitting here flattering ourselves by thinking they're intentionally holding back FSW. They're not. They aren't even thinking about FSW. This stream is so irrelevant and disposable in their minds that they haven't even bothered to issue a statement about it for almost a whole year. Meanwhile it's work as usual for IECs, students, grandpas and tourists. They don't care about the status of FSW, and if you had to be honest with yourself, they have absolutely no reason to care about FSW. It is an irrelevant stream. They know it, and we know it. Some of us choose to deny it.

They know it, and we know it. Some of us choose to deny it.
Now i am accepting it. i wished to have the fsw ita. was so thrilled to join the pool, back in january 2020. we not worth, we are disposable,

how it started

how it's now

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

They know it, and we know it. Some of us choose to deny it.
Now i am accepting it. i wished to have the fsw ita. was so thrilled to join the pool, back in january 2020. we not worth, we are disposable,

how it started

how it's now

tf you talking about? You're a couple of months away from an ITA.

 

[dankboi]

tf you talking about? You're a couple of months away from an ITA.

man we are disposable! i joined the pool as a fsw candidate. I am fsw , what ircc did? couple of shit away from Ita yes, but which stream bruh? it's pnp, not fsw. we are disposable and that's why they halted our draws.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

man we are disposable! i joined the pool as a fsw candidate. I am fsw , what ircc did? couple of shit away from Ita yes, but which stream bruh? it's pnp, not fsw. we are disposable and that's why they halted our draws.

Doesn't matter now. You're PNP now. You'll get your application processed, likely faster than any FSWs lol. No reason for you not to celebrate.

 

[Windsor37]

No, they will not run out of CECs and TFWs for the next few years. The ease of getting PRs after study will certainly drive more students to Canada. They have already indicated their desire to bring back TR to PR next year. Sure they won't retire FSW, but they'll keep it in limbo fr 3-4 more years. Pieces of shit like my will be 40 by the time we get to Canada. What once used to be something striving towards a fair system (not without its faults) is now something driven entirely by your ability to pay for university in Canada, or you already being a citizen of a first world country.

But it's the same, if Canada would rely on students for population growth, then it means the power to control immigration shifts from the federal government to another entity, in this case, the Canadian universities, so unless a government gives a mandate that universities must accept a minimum number of students and those students must graduate, GPA be damned, then they won't be able increase the population at the pace that they would like to be if FSW is in place.

 

[slavicgirl]

Here's the thing people don't seem to realize. We are sitting here flattering ourselves by thinking they're intentionally holding back FSW. They're not. They aren't even thinking about FSW. This stream is so irrelevant and disposable in their minds that they haven't even bothered to issue a statement about it for almost a whole year. Meanwhile it's work as usual for IECs, students, grandpas and tourists. They don't care about the status of FSW, and if you had to be honest with yourself, they have absolutely no reason to care about FSW. It is an irrelevant stream. They know it, and we know it. Some of us choose to deny it.

Why haven't they adjusted OINP CRS then? If no FSW is the decision then it would make sense to pick higher scoring candidates. This hasn't happened yet.