The process is definitely non-linear. I have two friends, one from here, another from Kitchener, who had their tests last month, and got the passport requests the day after their test status changed to passed. I think the guy from Kitchener also applied in September 2020, but despite his late test date, got his decision made status some 2 weeks before me.
About the switch to in-person, I'm basing that on many provinces having lifted most of their restrictions (under the vax-passport condition, granted), combined to no ceremony invitations since mid-September in both 2020 and 2019 spreadsheets. I know there are virtual ceremonies taking place right now, up to at least March next year. But no new ceremony appointments made for over a month is strange. I believe another factor that could be playing a role on that is that virtual ceremonies can't hold as many people as in-person ones, so they are probably waiting for other premiers to make announcements like the one Doug Ford made last week, that Ontario will gradually lift all restrictions till March. Then, you see the Federal Government ending most support programs, speculations about the Bank of Canada raising the interest rates before planned, inflation soaring, labour shortages... it seems the dire reality of poor economy is going to end the pandemic, regardless of the actual health outcome. After all, someone has to pay the healthcare professionals.
