FSW WORLDWIDE

[dxdroid]

I think that even high score CEC candidates are applying now anyway however we do not see much increase per each draw. I am just hopping that suddenly we will not be flooded with 480+ candidates

 

[oginnite]

If that does happen, what do you think would be the estimated cutoffs for the 8 all- program draws that you mentioned, considering the fact that as of now we have 28,000 people having a score of more than 460 in the express entry pool ?

I think You should be thinking of those that has 470 and above the pool. There is a very slim chance that the score dip down into the 460s even if the draw resumes as earlier as August. The reason been the fact that there would increase in the number of peopl entering into the pool once the all Programs draw resumes. Atleast 2000 people would be added biweekly and IRCC might decide to lower the number of ITA issued during these draws in order to keep the Score up above 470s.

My Opinion

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

My last post about FSW cutoffs got sent to moderator approval... Not sure why. I'll try to copy it below here, hope it doesn't get hidden again:

Once the all program draws return, many people will shift their focus from study route to FSW, which will bring some new high-score candidates into the FSW pool. What happened last year was it started at 478 in July and ended at 468 in December with roughly the same number of ITAs sent. However this year most high-score CECs are already invited, and although there will be new high-scoring CECs joining into the pool between Sept and Dec of course, we can see the all program draw cutoffs hovering around 460 by December.

The first two draws will be discouring though, no need to estimate them, just look at the pool. So, assuming 5000 invites, probably first draw will be 484+ and the second draw will be (this is where a lot of new high-score people will join in I think) 480+ or 478+. But don't worry, the scores will come down fast as you can see from the numbers. And don't forget Canada's need for more immigrants in the years to come.

A note: The demographics of the FSW pool does not change fast. 481 is the magic number because many people can be younger than 30, obtain 3 years of experience, max out English, and get a foreign master's. Beyond 481 it takes special effort like learn French or get a Canadian degree. So the cutoffs above 481 (or 478) will break fast, in a draw or two.

 

[Jaycejay]

I’m sure most of us don’t really worry so much about how many invites CIC decides to send per draw. I’ll personally just be relieved that at least the all program draw resumed again. This will resonate a great deal of hope to thousands of outlanders hoping to immigrate to Canada

 

[dxdroid]

My last post about FSW cutoffs got sent to moderator approval... Not sure why. I'll try to copy it below here, hope it doesn't get hidden again:

Once the all program draws return, many people will shift their focus from study route to FSW, which will bring some new high-score candidates into the FSW pool. What happened last year was it started at 478 in July and ended at 468 in December with roughly the same number of ITAs sent. However this year most high-score CECs are already invited, and although there will be new high-scoring CECs joining into the pool between Sept and Dec of course, we can see the all program draw cutoffs hovering around 460 by December.

The first two draws will be discouring though, no need to estimate them, just look at the pool. So, assuming 5000 invites, probably first draw will be 484+ and the second draw will be (this is where a lot of new high-score people will join in I think) 480+ or 478+. But don't worry, the scores will come down fast as you can see from the numbers. And don't forget Canada's need for more immigrants in the years to come.

A note: The demographics of the FSW pool does not change fast. 481 is the magic number because many people can be younger than 30, obtain 3 years of experience, max out English, and get a foreign master's. Beyond 481 it takes special effort like learn French or get a Canadian degree. So the cutoffs above 481 (or 478) will break fast, in a draw or two.

In theory we can improve our score to 480+ by just improving IELTS however we do not want to spend more money onto it as of now and we do not have time to prep specifically for that test. Too much work and other responsibilities. I am hopping thought that the scores will go down to low 470-472

 

[tahashanouha]

I disagree, there's really no politics on immigration. It's evident from the recent official word about the public support for immigration. As I explained a few posts back, inviting and processing outland FSWs had been a risk for IRCC because those apps don't get finalized before 8-9 months at the earliest. Imagine inviting FSWs from Jan to June 2021. This would mean, at best, IRCC would have finalized the apps from Jan to March before 2021 had ended and miss 2021 target by a large margin. See I'm not even talking about CoPR and travel restrictions because it was never really relevant. So what IRCC did was invite and prioritize CEC because they had the ability to finalize those apps within 6 months so almost "all" CEC ITAs turned into 2021 PRs which helped this year's target.

But now it's different close to the end of the year. CEC won't be fast enough after September, most CEC apps cannot be finalized in less than 3 months so IRCCs only option (especially when there's exemptions for CoPRs now) is to quickly finalize "near-the-end" FSW apps from 2020 and 2021, which are either all passed, or all passed except security, and let them come to Canada before the year ends. This is the only way they can meet 2021 target. Also, FSW will have to continue after September because why invite low CRS CECs if you know you can't finalize their apps before 2021 ends? IRCC will go back to FSW soon to prepare for 2022 target while maintaining a high CRS cutoff.

This is actually very logical. And as an outland with an approved application and just waiting for a PPR. I thank you for the hopium

 

[oginnite]

My last post about FSW cutoffs got sent to moderator approval... Not sure why. I'll try to copy it below here, hope it doesn't get hidden again:

Once the all program draws return, many people will shift their focus from study route to FSW, which will bring some new high-score candidates into the FSW pool. What happened last year was it started at 478 in July and ended at 468 in December with roughly the same number of ITAs sent. However this year most high-score CECs are already invited, and although there will be new high-scoring CECs joining into the pool between Sept and Dec of course, we can see the all program draw cutoffs hovering around 460 by December.

The first two draws will be discouring though, no need to estimate them, just look at the pool. So, assuming 5000 invites, probably first draw will be 484+ and the second draw will be (this is where a lot of new high-score people will join in I think) 480+ or 478+. But don't worry, the scores will come down fast as you can see from the numbers. And don't forget Canada's need for more immigrants in the years to come.

A note: The demographics of the FSW pool does not change fast. 481 is the magic number because many people can be younger than 30, obtain 3 years of experience, max out English, and get a foreign master's. Beyond 481 it takes special effort like learn French or get a Canadian degree. So the cutoffs above 481 (or 478) will break fast, in a draw or two.

The more reason why said it here. There would be increase in thenumber of people. The table would be this static in the higher ladder as we are seeing right now. The Higher score would become more competitive, also remember that Provinces are giving out huge numbers of ITAsout in their draw currently. So,that would add to the competetiveness in the pool too and will inturn affect the CRS Score in the ALL PROGRAM DRAW
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/fsw-worldwide.739338/post-9585605

 

[OneStepAtATime]

Thanks for all the analyses! You're making a lot of sense and I hope your predictions turn out to be right!

About the gap remaining from last year's target; I'm not sure if they can just carry it over into 2021 to extend the quota, and I'm not sure if it would make things any better because IRCC still has the risk of not meeting 2021 targets alone, let alone the gap that may be added from 2020. I think they'll revise the immigration levels of 2023 and add all gaps into that quota. It'll be the best year for immigration, increased quotas, little to no covid, good economy.

I'd like to point out one thing though:
I believe the shortfall from 2020 has already been accounted for with the bump in immigration target of 60k per year over 3 years compared to the figures in the 2020-2022 plan.
https://www.cicnews.com/2020/10/canada-to-release-2021-2023-immigration-levels-plan-1016133.html

 

[Akrial]

The more reason why said it here. There would be increase in thenumber of people. The table would be this static in the higher ladder as we are seeing right now. The Higher score would become more competitive, also remember that Provinces are giving out huge numbers of ITAsout in their draw currently. So,that would add to the competetiveness in the pool too and will inturn affect the CRS Score in the ALL PROGRAM DRAW
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/fsw-worldwide.739338/post-9585605

No impact due to PNP... PNP have the same quotas every year and PNP draws are never stopped...so the flow of pnp would remain same and would have no significant impact on CRS once all program draw resumes.

 

[Alysson]

No impact due to PNP... PNP have the same quotas every year and PNP draws are never stopped...so the flow of pnp would remain same and would have no significant impact on CRS once all program draw resumes.

PNP Outland aren’t having their applications finalized, so they don’t count towards the numbers. Only lands count towards the immigration numbers.

 

[oginnite]

No impact due to PNP... PNP have the same quotas every year and PNP draws are never stopped...so the flow of pnp would remain same and would have no significant impact on CRS once all program draw resumes.

what i mean is that those EE candidate that got ITA would end up retuning into the pool with high score and there PR processed as FSW.

Hope you understand now. Take for example those that Manitoba just gave ITA days ago. One of the conditions is that they must be active in the EE pool. SO after the Nomination, they would return into the Pool and either get federal ITA through the PNP draw or the NO PROGRAM DRAW when it resumes.

 

[Jaycejay]

Alberta to remove most COVID-19 isolation, testing requirements by mid-August

Albertans who test positive for COVID-19 will no longer be required to enter isolation starting in less than three weeks, the province's chief medical officer of health said Wednesday.

While a recent rise in COVID-19 cases has caused some anxiety, increasing vaccination rates are limiting the threat of severe outcomes and strains on the health-care system, Dr. Deena Hinshaw said during a news conference.

As a result, the province will start making COVID-19 protocols similar to those of the flu and other communicable diseases.

 

[dxdroid]

Alberta to remove most COVID-19 isolation, testing requirements by mid-August

Albertans who test positive for COVID-19 will no longer be required to enter isolation starting in less than three weeks, the province's chief medical officer of health said Wednesday.

While a recent rise in COVID-19 cases has caused some anxiety, increasing vaccination rates are limiting the threat of severe outcomes and strains on the health-care system, Dr. Deena Hinshaw said during a news conference.

As a result, the province will start making COVID-19 protocols similar to those of the flu and other communicable diseases.

I think that in countries with high level of vaccination, Covid will be treated similar to the flu It is a good sign. Most other provinces will follow up with similar protocol sooner or later.

 

[Jaycejay]

I think that in countries with high level of vaccination, Covid will be treated similar to the flu

In the long-run, we will have to get yearly shots of updated vaccines. Covid19 is here to stay for a very long time. The best strategy would be to vaccinate as much of the population especially the vulnerable category. Smart countries like UK are starting to realize this. However, I must commend Canada for its cautious approach but once at least 75% of the population is fully vaccinated they really have to open up the borders and the economy. Allowing anyone who is fully vaccinated in should be the way to go moving forward

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

In the long-run, we will have to get yearly shots of updated vaccines. Covid19 is here to stay for a very long time. The best strategy would be to vaccinate as much of the population especially the vulnerable category. Smart countries like UK are starting to realize this. However, I must commend Canada for its cautious approach but once at least 75% of the population is fully vaccinated they really have to open up the borders and the economy. Allowing anyone who is fully vaccinated in should be the way to go moving forward

If the solution to keep deaths down is through vaccines (which, it is) then eventually it comes down to what an individual thinks; since you can't quite forcefully vaccinate them. Scratching this matter more will only cause bleeding, and I'm talking about a social bleeding. As we saw, there's a certain percentage of people who want to get vaccinated and who just don't want to. This may very well mean that in some places, covid will never be tamed. Still, we will see that it is not feasible for (western/democratic) governments to base their plans on things which are, and should be, in sole decision of individuals.

One exception would be maybe North Korea. The law might say either you get vaccinated or executed, well, not very feasible...

In short, 2021 will be the last year of "pandemic politics" because it's not feasible anymore.