No problem!
For me this is kinda fun because the data doesn't lie and it's possible, with a large enough sample size, to try and figure out how the heck they're prioritizing the backlog and processing applications.
I think the problem now is that for the December onward records, there is now a mix of people who applied online
and paper-based applications. I kinda wish the Admin of the sheet had taken a stand to exclude and separate these into their own sheet (though I recognize there are problems with that approach too). It's very clear that the Online Application program, being a pilot program, is going to have a much shorter and tighter process loop than the paper-based applications because it's being scrutinized by a specific group of people on IRCC's side that is part of managing that pilot project.
Now, the numbers from those are going to muddy the metrics for all months starting December because there will effectively two sets of data mixed in one - the faster, more agile Online Application track and the traditional paper-based application track.
With regards to catching up - it's hard to say, at this point.
My only guesses are that they've done one of the following:
a) They changed up the list of activities they do before it hits a certain stage and shuffled it around (which is possible, maybe they used to do 10 activities before it hit Status A and then 3 activities before it hit Status B, but now they do 6 activities before it hits Status A and then 7 activities for Status B). This to an extent, is possible - it would massage their KPI numbers because now the apps would hit a specific stage sooner, but it
could mean delays for the subsequent status change - basically trading delays at one point for another. That's why I want to see the AOR -> In Process timelines and averages for November 2020 group before ruling this out entirely.
b) ('Really-out-there' guess) They are processing these applications differently, possibly digitally, that allows it to move faster - these applications may have been loaded into the same backend system that is now hooked up to the front-end system of the Online Citizenship Application Pilot program. So even if our applications started as paper-based applications, they've wound up in the same system as the ones currently being fed in directly from applicants through the pilot. This would mean that there is now a method for folks at home to continue to work on applications for their bits of the process.
This is just theorizing, but the patterns will become more evident as more and more data points come in. Ideally, if there was a way to have the folks on the disparate Facebook groups also add their info in here, it'd make it even more useful to everyone.
