Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[YNWA]

Hi guys i saw that CIC website Processing time update as on 08.01.2021:
"When the 6-month processing standard begins (when the application is submitted based on the application received date in the Global Case Management System)".
So does this means 6 months start from AOR ???

 

[EropbI4]

Hi guys i saw that CIC website Processing time update as on 08.01.2021:
"When the 6-month processing standard begins (when the application is submitted based on the application received date in the Global Case Management System)".
So does this means 6 months start from AOR ???

Yes.

 

[seadrag0n]

Well they certainly won’t be ok to just relax and let the apps pile up. For one thing, the mandate letters do make these guys accountable - 400K landed immigrants target can’t be ignored and they will be under pressure to deliver it. Secondly, immigration directly contributes to a non negligible part of Canada’s GDP. Each day they delay immigrant landings is a day less of wealth creation in the country.

So they certainly won’t sit back and relax, and will be actively trying to put measures in place to fix the situation.

There is a simple solution if they cannot admit 400k immigrants this year, just make another grand announcement of taking in maybe 500k immigrants per year from next year onwards and keep increasing the target year after year.

 

[EropbI4]

There is a simple solution if they cannot admit 400k immigrants this year, just make another grand announcement of taking in maybe 500k immigrants per year from next year onwards and keep increasing the target year after year.

Exactly! People don’t take their plans too serious, they have no obligations for these numbers, it’s only an indication of their intension to welcome immigrant. However, number of immigrants and exact years can be reconsidered so many times due to external factors such as COVID, employment situation, etc.

 

[Windsor37]

Correct - I knew that all along. It's just counting down 6 months from AoR, not the time left to process your application. It used to have some meaning (although limited), but now it doesn't really mean anything. Mine updated after 6 months and said, "Your application is taking us longer than usual to process".

Hmm...maybe you can try the GCMS I hear so much so you can know which part is not being assessed yet.

 

[ZAtoCD]

Hmm...maybe you can try the GCMS I hear so much so you can know which part is not being assessed yet.

Thanks! I have requested notes twice, and they show that security has not yet begun, so the app isn't moving. It's been like that since September 2020.

Lol I know I have to be patient can’t help but vent . Hope you get yours soon.

That's fair. Thank you, same to you!

Thanks again for your feedback, are you aware if the IRCC has contacted anyone that was approved lately or overall after 18/03?. I appreciate the support.

I'm not aware of such. Perhaps ask that in the month-specific AoR threads. Maybe May and June.

Well they certainly won’t be ok to just relax and let the apps pile up. For one thing, the mandate letters do make these guys accountable - 400K landed immigrants target can’t be ignored and they will be under pressure to deliver it. Secondly, immigration directly contributes to a non negligible part of Canada’s GDP. Each day they delay immigrant landings is a day less of wealth creation in the country.

So they certainly won’t sit back and relax, and will be actively trying to put measures in place to fix the situation.

It does seem like it will increase the backlog, yes. But Canada lost jobs in December again, with the second wave of COVID. So, the economy is not stable yet. Also, allowing immigrants in would increase the COVID risk in general. And bear in mind, there is politics involved with this as well. If you're a Canadian and you've lost your job due to economic decline, and you're scared of getting COVID, you may not want your government to start allowing immigrants in right now. Politics is not always based on facts, but often on feelings. The Liberals would have to choose a good time to sell that to the general population. There are so many factors involved here. We just have to wait until things are calmer.

 

[keisersausey]

Hello everyone,

I posted this in the May 2020 thread, but I thought maybe some people look here for a "Ray of Hope"


I seem to have received the golden mail
I received the "Ready For Visa" email that asks me to submit my passport... so I think it's all good !
Now left to see is how long Sydney, Australia takes to process the visa (between 4 days and 3 months they write, talk about an estimate !)

Here's my timeline:
FSW-Outland
VO: Sydney, NS
AOR: May 2nd
Medical: February 28th
Biometrics: August 3rd
Passport Request: January 10th

We're getting there people, best of luck !

 

[ZAtoCD]

Hello everyone,

I posted this in the May 2020 thread, but I thought maybe some people look here for a "Ray of Hope"


I seem to have received the golden mail
I received the "Ready For Visa" email that asks me to submit my passport... so I think it's all good !
Now left to see is how long Sydney, Australia takes to process the visa (between 4 days and 3 months they write, talk about an estimate !)

Here's my timeline:
FSW-Outland
VO: Sydney, NS
AOR: May 2nd
Medical: February 28th
Biometrics: August 3rd
Passport Request: January 10th

We're getting there people, best of luck !

Congratulations, and thanks for sharing! I'm sure the folks in this thread would also be interested to know: https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/may-2020-aor-join-here.686609/page-200#post-9112793.

 

[Islander216]

Immigration targets also have a range:
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2021-2023.html

So there is a lower limit, it's not because they say up to 400k that it absolutely must be 400k or else someone loses their job.

Immigration at this point in time is not really a priority politically for locals.

It's a long term priority to rejuvenate a shrinking and an aging population.

Also expect immigration to be a hot button issue when the elections come around.

 

[seadrag0n]

Immigration targets also have a range:
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2021-2023.html

So there is a lower limit, it's not because they say up to 400k that it absolutely must be 400k or else someone loses their job.

Immigration at this point in time is not really a priority politically for locals.

It's a long term priority to rejuvenate a shrinking and an aging population.

Also expect immigration to be a hot button issue when the elections come around.

If its not a priority then why the large number of invitations?

 

[Islander216]

It's a priority because of demographics and economic policy, that's why you have a large number of invitations and high targets. As i said the population is aging, and most of Canada's anemic population growth is due to immigration.

But does that mean the man on the street in Canada favours this level of immigration? Most likely not.

For the record, i think Canada should be focusing on 100m by 2100 like the Century Initiative think is necessary.

But that's just me.

We shouldn't forget that Harper was in power for almost 10 years before the Liberals won in 2015, and a part of that platform was reducing immigration.

With the issues with the irregular border crossings, job losses due to covid, and high targets set by the Liberals, you can expect the conservatives to make this an issue again.

 

[ZAtoCD]

If its not a priority then why the large number of invitations?

Quite possibly to assist with economic recovery after COVID subsides.

 

[seadrag0n]

It's a priority because of demographics and economic policy, that's why you have a large number of invitations and high targets. As i said the population is aging, and most of Canada's anemic population growth is due to immigration.

But does that mean the man on the street in Canada favour this level of immigration? Most likely not.

For the record, i think Canada should be focusing on 100m by 2100 like the Century Initiative think is necessary.

But that's just me.

We shouldn't forget that Harper was in power for almost 10 years before the Liberals won in 2015, and a part of that platform was reducing immigration.

With the issues with the irregular border crossings, job losses due to covid, and high targets set by the Liberals, you can expect the conservatives to make this an issue again.

I don't understand the point you are trying to make. They are giving out invitations just because and will not approve them/refuse because of COVID woes later?

 

[Islander216]

No, not at all lol. I'm making a larger point on how future targets may change based on which party is in power, and public opinion on immigration.

They aren't giving out ITAs for nothing, they want people to come. How long that elevated number for targets will be is the question i was trying to answer, and giving context on the fact that there is an acceptable range for immigration, it's not always the upper limit which needs to be reached.

 

[ns317]

Thanks! I have requested notes twice, and they show that security has not yet begun, so the app isn't moving. It's been like that since September 2020.

That's fair. Thank you, same to you!

I'm not aware of such. Perhaps ask that in the month-specific AoR threads. Maybe May and June.

It does seem like it will increase the backlog, yes. But Canada lost jobs in December again, with the second wave of COVID. So, the economy is not stable yet. Also, allowing immigrants in would increase the COVID risk in general. And bear in mind, there is politics involved with this as well. If you're a Canadian and you've lost your job due to economic decline, and you're scared of getting COVID, you may not want your government to start allowing immigrants in right now. Politics is not always based on facts, but often on feelings. The Liberals would have to choose a good time to sell that to the general population. There are so many factors involved here. We just have to wait until things are calmer.

Immigration and economy are kind of in a virtuous cycle in Canada - immigration directly contributes to boosted business for a number of Canadians working in all kinds of sectors from housing to essential services. So it's not going to be about receiving immigrants AFTER the economy recovers; because the immigrants who arrive contribute in helping the economy recover.

The economy will certainly take a while to be stable (as is the case for most countries), but everything points to majority of the population getting vaccinated by the end of summer. So the current outlook seems to be much more predictable than it was in October. In October, we didn't even know if we were anywhere near a vaccine (with some scientists even speculating that we may never get a vaccine for covid). In that climate, they decided to go with a 400K mandate - that implies an inevitability to immigration no matter how long it takes to turn the economy around. Since we are much better off now than in October, I don't see any reason to think they might not still be working to achieve that target.

I'd speculate that by Q2, we will know the landing procedures for post March 18 PPRs.

I'm not particularly worried about politics either from an economic immigration (express entry in this case) perspective, because conservatives typically are in favour of that. Non economic immigration might face risks from conservative governments, but that's a different matter.