Question. Where are you getting that in the last draw, there were 344 created per day for profiles created at 471+. I'm getting about 280 per day. The total profiles at 471+ as per Nov 23 = 2,359. The same per Nov 16 = 5,112. So now if I do 2,359 - (5,112 - 5,000) = 2,247. Then, the total number of days between the draw data = 8 days and so 2,247/ 8 = approx 280 profiles created per day at 471 and above.
On the previous draw there was 4764 candidates in the 471-600 range. I usually don't count PNPs, since the number is pretty random... sometimes we have draws with 200 PNPs, and in other occasions, 1000 PNPs. So, it's impossible to measure/predict the influx of candidates in the 600-1200 range.
The current draw showed a 2174 figure, so:
2174-(4764-(5,000-348)) = 2062 entered the pool in the 7 day period = 294 candidates/day
(Remember that the data showed on IRCC website is usually 2 days before the draw, so all the math should take the reference date in consideration for the interval period, not the actual date of the draw)
I just realized I was missing the (-348) in the calculation, since I was not taking away the PNPs invitations. By recalculating, these are the numbers from the previous draws:
| Draw | Interval | ITAs | CRS | 471-600 | 600-1200 | RATE (candidates/day) |
| 163 | 14 | 4200 | 472 | 4946 | 331 | 217 |
| 164 | 14 | 4200 | 471 | 3950 | 342 | 205 |
| 165 | 14 | 4500 | 471 | 3785 | 454 | 264 |
| 166 | 23 | 4500 | 478 | 5850 | 998 | 266 |
| 167 | 12 | 5000 | 472 | 4764 | 348 | 201 |
| 168 | 7 | 5000 | 469 | 2174 | 185 | 295 |
So, with that adjusted number, we can do an estimate: 14 days * 295 = 4130 candidates added in the 471-600 range for the next draw + PNPs... so we're probably talking around 4500-4600 candidates, which would allow for a -500 reduction in the 461-470 range. Which, currently has around 10,000 candidates.
Sure, we might see a drop in that rate, just like we saw on draw 167. But looking into the past 6 draws, it clearly indicates a trend upwards instead of downwards. That number could also easily get reduced if IELTS centres start to close again due to return of lockdowns.
Again, not my opinion, just what the numbers are showing. I kept waiting for my ITA for almost 1 entire year, and I know how stressful it is. But, I hate to be the kind of "don't worry, I'll get your ITA sitting at 461" guy. I'll always try to be show people that EE is a really hard competition, and those who sit still waiting for a miracle probably won't make it.
If someone find an error on my numbers, please point out so that I can adjust my table.
