Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[Islander216]

Very true and good points but you have to consider the trends and following points:

1. Biden got elected president and his first move will be to undo Trump's immigration reforms. His VP, Harris, as you may know; her mother is an Indian immigrant and she has expressed, numerous times, the importance of immigrants, particularly from countries like India, to the US. In short, expect the US to open up again.

2. The Canadian immigration targets are very high for 2021-2023. What we're seeing now isn't an outlier, rather its part of a regular trend. The people selected now in November, December will be able to land in 2021/2022. Maybe it won't be 5K ITA's being issued at every draw but at minimum, it will be around 4.2K-4.5K if you do the math. In addition, the number of people entering the pool with a CRS score of 470 and above has been about 2.5K - 3.5K.

IRCC didn't have to hold a b2b draw this week, they didn't have to increase the number of ITA's issued from 4.5K to 5K, they didn't even have to make any EE draws this year even as they already reached their quota, but they did.

When you consider all of this, I find it hard not to be optimistic, especially if you're in the 460's, upper 450's.

1. Valid, and i agree. I'm sure it will reduce entrants from immigrants based in the U.S trying to get PR. But by how much is a key question, it remains difficult to transition from an immigrant visa to PR status in the U.S. While i'm sure many will prefer to remain, i still there will be a lot of people who will see the the straightforwardness of EE in Canada and still apply for PR. There are many people who apply for EE despite being based and wanting to remain in the US, and they use PR in Canada as a plan B. I expect that trend to continue.

2. Yes, they are high, but expect entrants to the pool to increase as well. The numbers have spiraled for EE in the last couple of years, and i expect that to only increase, especially among the high scores. I expect that to offset the increased size of draws. IRCC also do not usually have big draws, it's a way they ensure that the pool replenishes with higher scoring candidates, and so they can keep the cut-off score high. Also, just as there are the occasional b2b draws, there are also times where they wait in excess of 2 weeks to conduct draws. They also can do program specific draws as well, so they have a wide array of methods to keep cut-off scores high. And to be honest, it's in their interest to do so because the higher scoring the candidate, the more valuable they will be as immigrants according to their criteria.

I would put it this way, if you were a candidate in January 2018, you had a chance if your score was just under 440. Do you think that is the case now? In 2019, if you score was in the low 450's, you had a good chance to qualify during the year. Do you have that chance now based this year's cut-off scores for an all program draw?

Scores are only shifting upwards not downwards, we no longer see big shifts downwards in cut-offs scores like we did before, unless it's something specifically designed like a b2b draw. Back in 2018, draws were routinely dropping significantly. That hasn't been the case in a while. So, i don't rule it out, but the trend is clear.

 

[rajatmb04]

By God’s grace you will get ITA when they do draw next month.

Thanks a lot for your wishes, it really helps in keeping me motivated. Fingers crossed

 

[GurpreetKalra23]

Quick Question

In the ITA letter, Point 6 states obtain the documents which you must submit with your application (see “checklist” for details)

Where is this Checklist ?

 

[jesse1120]

Quick Question

In the ITA letter, Point 6 states obtain the documents which you must submit with your application (see “checklist” for details)

Where is this Checklist ?

you will get it once you fill in the information under "Continue Application".

 

[GurpreetKalra23]

you will get it once you fill in the information under "Continue Application".

After filling it completely ? It would take some time as the details like 10 yr address would take some time

And does these 10 yr address need to be very accurate ? I don’t remember my house #s for 2011,12 as I was just a paying guest sort of tenant

 

[Timbuktu_14]

Don't give the exam. Give me the money instead, let me add to my POF. Hahahahahaha

lol

 

[Timbuktu_14]

By God’s grace you will get ITA when they do draw next month.

What a time to be alive. Congratulations on your ITA, saw it on nairaland yesterday.

 

[Igethope]

What a time to be alive. Congratulations on your ITA, saw it on nairaland yesterday.

Thanks a lot. Appreciate

 

[Timbuktu_14]

Thanks a lot. Appreciate

You welcome buddy. All the best for the rest of the journey!

 

[May5ive]

Lol the same way you said B2B would never happen, and I actually believed you and panicked.

Forget these people abeg. Their arguments are never substantial.

 

[jrossi]

Lol the same way you said B2B would never happen, and I actually believed you and panicked.

I indeed said a b2b was unlikely (never said impossible, btw), and I had a basis for my argument. Yet, My argument was all based on the idea that we would have a normal draw on December 2nd, and then another normal draw on December 16th.
No one really predicted a B2B on November. After all, we were all discussing whether or not there would be a B2B in December. Now, with that B2B draw in November (which, btw, is a first), it's really hard to predict which path IRCC will follow:

Another draw on December 9th and a B2B in December 16th
Or a draw in December 9th and an unprecedented draw on December 30th (since I bet they hardly would do a draw just 2 days before Xmas).

Besides all of that, my answer to the post was pretty straight forward and correct: the influx of candidates in the pool with 471+ points during that 1 week gap between draws was unchanged, or as matter of fact, it actually INCREASED.
During the last 3 previous draws, the influx in the 471-600 range was, respectively, 288/285/285 candidates/day.
For the last draw, the b2b one, the influx was 344 candidates/day. If that rate persists, 14 days would bring around 4,800 candidates to the 471-600 range on the next draw. 4,800 for the 471-600, we still need to count the PNPs (which, frankly, is impossible to predict).

Unless IRCC starts random (and pretty frequent) B2Bs, there's just no data to support the idea that we'll be reaching 460 by February. As always, I say to those that are sitting in the lower 460 (and even higher 460's): go after a plan to increase your score. Don't have "hopes" for a draw that might never come. If it happens, great, but don't just sit still hoping for a miracle.

Finally, unless you have some math to debunk these numbers, I kindly ask you to stop with "LOLs". I'm just presenting the data we can extract from the numbers.

 

[jrossi]

Fun fact about this draw, btw: if I hadn't learned french, I would have received my ITA this Wednesday, since I was seating at 469 before getting the 45 extra points.
Was I willing to take that risk? Hell no.

 

[sun2088]

I indeed said a b2b was unlikely (never said impossible, btw), and I had a basis for my argument. Yet, My argument was all based on the idea that we would have a normal draw on December 2nd, and then another normal draw on December 16th.
No one really predicted a B2B on November. After all, we were all discussing whether or not there would be a B2B in December. Now, with that B2B draw in November (which, btw, is a first), it's really hard to predict which path IRCC will follow:

Another draw on December 9th and a B2B in December 16th
Or a draw in December 9th and an unprecedented draw on December 30th (since I bet they hardly would do a draw just 2 days before Xmas).

Besides all of that, my answer to the post was pretty straight forward and correct: the influx of candidates in the pool with 471+ points during that 1 week gap between draws was unchanged, or as matter of fact, it actually INCREASED.
During the last 3 previous draws, the influx in the 471-600 range was, respectively, 288/285/285 candidates/day.
For the last draw, the b2b one, the influx was 344 candidates/day. If that rate persists, 14 days would bring around 4,800 candidates to the 471-600 range on the next draw. 4,800 for the 471-600, we still need to count the PNPs (which, frankly, is impossible to predict).

Unless IRCC starts random (and pretty frequent) B2Bs, there's just no data to support the idea that we'll be reaching 460 by February. As always, I say to those that are sitting in the lower 460 (and even higher 460's): go after a plan to increase your score. Don't have "hopes" for a draw that might never come. If it happens, great, but don't just sit still hoping for a miracle.

Finally, unless you have some math to debunk these numbers, I kindly ask you to stop with "LOLs". I'm just presenting the data we can extract from the numbers.

Question. Where are you getting that in the last draw, there were 344 created per day for profiles created at 471+. I'm getting about 280 per day. The total profiles at 471+ as per Nov 23 = 2,359. The same per Nov 16 = 5,112. So now if I do 2,359 - (5,112 - 5,000) = 2,247. Then, the total number of days between the draw data = 8 days and so 2,247/ 8 = approx 280 profiles created per day at 471 and above.

 

[MK00004]

Hey guys, congratulations to everyone who made , just want to get an idea what timeline we are looking at after the ITA till ppr considering everything is smooth thanks

 

[huyypeter]

It

Question. Where are you getting that in the last draw, there were 344 created per day for profiles created at 471+. I'm getting about 280 per day. The total profiles at 471+ as per Nov 23 = 2,359. The same per Nov 16 = 5,112. So now if I do 2,359 - (5,112 - 5,000) = 2,247. Then, the total number of days between the draw data = 8 days and so 2,247/ 8 = approx 280 profiles created per day at 471 and above.

it’s the data of nov 16 and nov 23, so it’s 1 week, 7 days man. Around 328 ppl entered per day. And this is not the number from only this draw, it has been like that for a while