Well, we can probably base ourselves in the last 2 changes to the citizenship act and how much time between the first reading in the House of Commons and the actual coming into force.
1) C-24 under a majority Harper government :
First reading in February 2014. The government went lightning fast with the legislative process, with a royal assent 4 months later.
https://www.parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/41-2/bill/C-24/first-reading
The coming into force of the new regulations regarding the physical presence, intent to reside in Canada, age range for language requirements took a full year after royal assent, see this program delivery update from June 2015 :
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/operational-bulletins-manuals/updates/2015-06-11.html
IRCC processed all applications between the royal ascent and the coming into force of the new law the way it was before...
2) C-6 under a majority Trudeau government :
First reading in February 2016 and royal ascent in June 2017.
https://www.parl.ca/LegisInfo/BillDetails.aspx?Language=E&billId=8117654
Then a coming into force in October 17, 2017.
In both cases, it took more than a year, if we start counting from the moment of the first reading. Let alone if we take T=0 at the moment of the new government's appointing.
Si le passé est garant de l'avenir...
You give a microscopic answer and expand too much on a small detail ... To the point of moving away and forgetting the essential. With respect, you have to know how to read between the lines.
Yet I have clearly said that even if this estimate of one year is true, it is very likely that we do not have this timeframe, and that the situation will remain blocked for so long, that this `` safety period '' of a year is not enough and has passed very quickly, and that it will be too late even when this year or a little more will have completely passed.
Let me explain, I will try to simplify things: As I often say:
'' Si vis pacem, para bellum '' *
* (Latin adage translated as "If you want peace, prepare for war".)
This precautionary principle leads me to consider all scenarios, even the worst.
According to several health specialists, and according to their best estimates, the global epidemological situation will not be completely resolved ... Only from the year 2023, and that for their most otpimistic projections.
Okay, now back to our case: We are going to assume the worst, that is to say that IRCC continues to maintain the status quo, by making promises to calm people's expectations (As the Honorable Minister did recently) , but without doing anything concrete, and simply maintaining the status quo situation until '' things are better '', to hope to resume tests in person ...
Of course, IRCC and their union will go out of their way to maintain the status quo as well, and will argue that it is unthinkable to consider an in-person recovery until after a worldwide daily infection rate of zero ... and time will pass, will pass ...
When the situation has settled down to such an extent that they will no longer be able to pretend the covid risk (i.e. in 2023 according to the most optimistic forecasts), there will already have been early elections for a while, and it will be very likely that by then that O'toole has been at the head of a conservative majority government for quite a while already ... Even the `` safety period '' of a year or a year and a little more will have already collapsed, and the damage will already be done.
In short, all this to say that waiting passively and gently not only will not get things done, but may lead us towards the disaster scenario more quickly and more brutally.
I wouldn't wait nicely by remaining a spectator. Not me.
, Piotr.