There is a third scenario - that PR is not sent for secondary review but just waved through. A few days out of compliance with RO might be just ignored or only with a question or two. And certainly right now, saying return to Canada was delayed by covid - even without any specifics at all or the most basic explanation like 'hard to find flights' (true in many countries) or 'planning return and respecting isolation requirements took extra time' - would likely be considered reasonable H&C circumstances.
I concur in these observations with some emphasis, and the rest of the post in large part.
Even if referred to Secondary, prospect of a waive through without being questioned much as to RO compliance seems good.
Of course this depends on WHEN the trip to Canada happens. The longer it goes, the more that pushes down the sliding scale of odds.
But, even if arriving SOON, being given an admonition about RO compliance would be no surprise . . . along with a note or flag to the client's GCMS. I am not sure, but I think this can result from the PIL (Primary Inspection Line) examination even if there is no referral to Secondary.
Further, In General Note:
In browsing IAD decisions recently I noticed how many RO appeal cases involve Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness, rather than Citizenship and Immigration (CIC remains the official name of IRCC for legal proceedings). Not all of the RO cases involving Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness are PoE 44(1) Report appeals but a high percentage are . . . and it is readily apparent there are more of these cases compared to appeals of Visa Office decisions denying a PR TD than there were in previous years . . . meaning it appears that enforcement of the RO at the PoE has probably increased over the last 3 to 5 or more years.
In contrast, for example, 5 to 10 years ago it was very common to see anecdotal reports about PRs being waived through the PoE examination, with minimal screening for RO compliance, as long as the PR presented a valid PR card. During that time, 5 to 10 years ago, we did see an increase in the number of PRs Reported at the PoE when there was a combination of (1) obviously having been abroad for a long time upon arrival, and (2) the PR was arriving in Canada with only a few months or less before the PR card expired. Overall, it appeared that PRs had fairly good odds of not getting reported at the border UNLESS it was fairly obvious they had EGREGIOUSLY breached the RO.
And back then, as best I recall, the reported IAD decisions (regarding PR RO cases) were mostly about appeals from Visa Office decisions denying a PR TD. At a glance, this has not been the pattern in the last two years. PoE enforcement appears to have been increased significantly.
Thus, while it appears to me that
@armoured is more accurately describing the odds for someone NOW (in the wake of covid) arriving within a few weeks or months of the third year anniversary of their landing, but already in breach of the RO, overall the trend tends to be in the direction of what
@IndianBos describes:
(Most likely) Since you are only a few days short on residency obligation, you will be sent to secondary review. They will ask you a lot of questions about your intent to settle in Canada
