Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[wmsimon]

I know. It's gonna be 4200 invites and 469 cut off. Remember almost 2000 candidates were still in d pool above 471 when the cut off dropped from 472 to 471. Now, just 189 were left after the last draw with 471.....

Note that the tier breaking rule for last draw was in March. I don't think since March, there're only 189 people with 471 in the pool because the calculation here assumed all people above 471 will accept the ITA which may not be true. Some people have to decline.

 

[Pyruvate1]

Note that the tier breaking rule for last draw was in March. I don't think since March, there're only 189 people with 471 in the pool because the calculation here assumed all people above 471 will accept the ITA which may not be true. Some people have to decline.

Remember activities ended in March as there were virtually NO ielts nor ECA issuance until late June/July. For sure, some persons will reject the ITA while some are even fake profiles. But on the average, 3,300 persons join the pool biweekly above 471 since July

 

[wmsimon]

I believe the cutoff will be 470, or even 471.
It's important to remember that the previous draw had a cutoff of 472, and then the next one was 471. The lower the score gets, the more people are within that score. So, it's reasonable to imagine that there are more candidates with 471 than 472, more candidates with 470 than 471, more candidates with 469 than 470, and so on. Just think about... we had 475, then 472 (-3 points), and now 471 (-1 point). What are the chances of the score dropping -3 again, when the 471-468 has WAYYYYYY more people than the 475-472? It's important to manage your expectations.
So, I don't see the score going below 470 for the next draw. For last draw of October? Maybe (but yet, unlikely). The real chance is probably lying at the first draw of November, IF the influx of candidates doesn't increase.

But as I always advise: don't sit still waiting for a miracle. Start to build a plan to improve your score NOW. Not tomorrow, NOW.
I was sitting at 469 for almost 8 months, and no ITA. I was only able to get mine because in January I understood (ok, I woke up and accepted the reality) that without improving it, I wouldn't make it.
There's a real chance that the influx of candidates will met the demand of ITAs before the score drops to 468 (just like the pre-pandemic scenario). You must be prepared to have a plan B to overcome this situation.

Good analysis but you forgot the structure of CRE scores. It's not linear but more like "stairs". For example, a typical profile (single <29yr old master degree IELTS 8777 3yr experience) will give you 469 and every CLB10 achieved will add 3 points, but you cannot come up with 470/471 (only unusual profiles due to age...etc). This means fewer people are standing at 470/471 and more people are clustering at 469, 472, 475, 478... Looks very close to the cut-off points of previous draws, right? This can explain why there was 3 points drop from 475 to 472.

 

[jrossi]

8 months? But there was 469 draw in December

I entered the pool in mid January. I received my ITA in early September. So, about 8.5 months of waiting.
And even when I increased my score to 475 (which was useless, because it happened during the CEC/PNP phase, and I returned to 469 once my 31-yr birthday arrived 3 months later), I continue to study to improve it even more. It was that “I can’t rest on my laurels” strategy that allowed my to get the ITA.

 

[jrossi]

The truth is that its not everyone that has the ability to take up another language considering the investments that have been pulled into this journey.

You can literally spend zero dollars to learn a new language. Within 3 months of solo studies, I earned 6 points due to French knowledge. For many people, that could guarantee them an ITA.
It’s much more a matter of “am I willing to dedicate 100% of my free time to guarantee my ITA in the future?” than a financial question. Not everyone has the determination to do it. But it’s definitely not a financial matter.
Also, there are other ways to improve your score, other than French, but then in that case I would agree that all other solutions rely on spending money.

 

[Timbuktu_14]

You can literally spend zero dollars to learn a new language. Within 3 months of solo studies, I earned 6 points due to French knowledge. For many people, that could guarantee them an ITA.
It’s much more a matter of “am I willing to dedicate 100% of my free time to guarantee my ITA in the future?” than a financial question. Not everyone has the determination to do it. But it’s definitely not a financial matter.
Also, there are other ways to improve your score, other than French, but then in that case I would agree that all other solutions rely on spending money.

Apt.

 

[Sensation80]

You can literally spend zero dollars to learn a new language. Within 3 months of solo studies, I earned 6 points due to French knowledge. For many people, that could guarantee them an ITA.
It’s much more a matter of “am I willing to dedicate 100% of my free time to guarantee my ITA in the future?” than a financial question. Not everyone has the determination to do it. But it’s definitely not a financial matter.
Also, there are other ways to improve your score, other than French, but then in that case I would agree that all other solutions rely on spending money.

Do you know if the speaking test can be skipped. Like if i want to appear for just the reading writing and listening will they give me the results.

 

[Timbuktu_14]

Note that the tier breaking rule for last draw was in March. I don't think since March, there're only 189 people with 471 in the pool because the calculation here assumed all people above 471 will accept the ITA which may not be true. Some people have to decline.

You can't be so sure that there was only 189 people left. They culled those figures two days before the draw and as we all know, new people enters the pool everyday. Safe to assume that there are about 1k people left in the upper echelons of 470.

Here's what I think, if they maintain the 4200 invitation in the next draw and we see an estimate of 3k people joining the pool with 471+, we might see 470 cut off in the next draw. The lower the number of people joining the pool the lower the cut off will be.

 

[jrossi]

Do you know if the speaking test can be skipped. Like if i want to appear for just the reading writing and listening will they give me the results.

It can’t be skipped. But you can simply say “Bonjour, je ne parle pas Français”
And you’ll receive in your TCF report a “niveau A1 non-atteint” for that skill. I did that on my first attempt for both Speaking and Writing. But managed to get a C1 (CLB8) for the Reading and Speaking, which gave me a total of 6 extra points.

 

[jrossi]

Good analysis but you forgot the structure of CRE scores. It's not linear but more like "stairs". For example, a typical profile (single <29yr old master degree IELTS 8777 3yr experience) will give you 469 and every CLB10 achieved will add 3 points, but you cannot come up with 470/471 (only unusual profiles due to age...etc). This means fewer people are standing at 470/471 and more people are clustering at 469, 472, 475, 478... Looks very close to the cut-off points of previous draws, right? This can explain why there was 3 points drop from 475 to 472.

The reason for the 475-472 is probably because there are way fewer people between 475-472 than between 472-469. Just like it’s probably easier to go 480-475 (-5 points) than it is to go 475-472 (-3 points).
Regarding the steps, I kinda agree with you. I remember when I was at 469 I did A TON of simulations to get an idea of my chances in future draws (specially because at that time we did not had any information about the breakdown of the pool between 450-500).
Yet, I simply did not arrived at any conclusion. Simply because there are MANY variations that are quite common. For FSWs it might be pretty straight forward, but for CECs there are different levels of certificate, different amount of years of experience, age (I might be wrong, but I believe a considerable amount of CECs are over 30).
For example: as a common profile, you mentioned someone with a masters. Yet, this is not the most common profile of candidates invited, in accordance with the 2019 EE Report. Myself, for example, don’t have a masters, but 2 diplomas. In that profile of a 29yr, with 3 CLB10 and 1 CLB9, the candidate would achieve 471. And I don’t think this is an unusual profile.

In the end, I gave up trying to understand that, because I realized there’s a reasonable common profile for every single score.

 

[zainab.p]

My crs score was 465, because my ielts result was L: 8.5 R: 8.5 W: 6.5 S: 8, so I redo my ielts test last week.

The result is released today, and my Crs score drops to 459 because L: 8 R: 8.5 W: 7 S: 6.5

I wouldn’t believe that I would score 6.5 in speaking......... now I applied for remark....

Hi I'm in a similar situation. I wrote on 30 Aug L- 8 R -9 W-6. 5 S -8. I'm applying for revaluation today. Did they increase your score?

 

[Timbuktu_14]

Canada seems to have taught every country how to effectively use a point based immigration system. UK now uses a point based system for their study visa plus they now offer 2years post study permit (could be up to 4years) to live and work in the UK.

The world economy is bleeding. The story might change for those in the US as well if Trump loses in the next election.

https://www.businessinsider.in/education/news/uks-new-visa-rules-make-it-easier-for-international-students-to-study-and-work-now/articleshow/78127748.cms

 

[Hopeful20]

Hello all! Does anyone know the number to call IRCC with outside Canada? If there’s none, is it possible for someone inland to call and make enquiries on your behalf? Thank you..

 

[Pyruvate1]

Canada seems to have taught every country how to effectively use a point based immigration system. UK now uses a point based system for their study visa plus they now offer 2years post study permit (could be up to 4years) to live and work in the UK.

The world economy is bleeding. The story might change for those in the US as well if Trump loses in the next election.

https://www.businessinsider.in/education/news/uks-new-visa-rules-make-it-easier-for-international-students-to-study-and-work-now/articleshow/78127748.cms

This will also reduce tension on Canada immigration.

 

[ZAtoCD]

Hello all! Does anyone know the number to call IRCC with outside Canada? If there’s none, is it possible for someone inland to call and make enquiries on your behalf? Thank you..

To my knowledge, there is only a number for those in Canada. Not sure about the second question.