Ray of Hope - 161st Draw - CEC

[shomaro]

"My Viewpoint"

Well, there were 5000+ people (above 470) into the pool right before the "PNP & CEC specific draws" which held on *19-20 Aug* and the data shows the influx of applications available into the pool till 18th Aug !

So, considering the data we should deduct the number of applications which received ITAs in the previous draws!

Particularly, ITAs received in the previous rounds of invitations were:
PNP+CEC: 600+3300= 3900

However, 470+ Applications in the pool till 18 Aug were: 5672

So, (Available applications - ITAs received)
5672-3900= 1772

Thus, after the previous draws the 470+ applications left into the pool were approx 1772 + few additional applications (which might haved entered the pool on/or after the draw).

Hence, majority of CEC applicants have received the ITA and out of the pool. Therefore, the the remaining applications into the pool would be of FSW folks. Consequently, the very next draw could be a general All Program Specific draw and there would be a decrease of 1-3 points for sure making the cut-off at 473-475 !

Stay forever hopeful. Good luck guys.

[Edit to my previous post]
I forgot to consider the 450s and 460s initially.

So, lets consider nearly half the number of 450s and all of the 460s applications:

5000 + 8506 + 5672= 19178 were the applications which were considered during the previous PNP & CEC draws respectively. Out of which 3900 got the ITAs.

So, 19178 - 3900 = 15278 are the applications still there within the range of 455 - 470s. As, all of the CEC applicants from 480-600 have already got the ITA!

Apparently this analysis is over-interpreted and thus is inserted with significant personal anticipation that obfuscated the very simple reality:

(TL; DR): every 4 weeks there are approximately 3300-4000 or more profiles with CRS score higher than the previous round are entering the EE pool, which could be either new profiles or old profiles with updated CRS scores due to one more year Canadian work experience.

We just need to look at the previous three CEC-specific invitations, which had a 4-week gap between each other.

June 25, cut-off score 431, 3508 people invited.

July 23, cut-off score 445, 3343 people invited.

Aug 20, cut-off score 454, 3300 people invited.

The number of invitations in each round is quite similar, especially for the ones in July and the one in August. Every day there are people celebrating their work anniversaries thus meeting the minimum eligibility requirements of CEC, or gaining more CRS points. The 4-week gap seems to gain approximately 3300-4000 or even more profiles with CRS score higher than the previous round that push the cut-off score, which seems to be more reasonable for the overall immigration system. Remember: the EE system will add the score for one more year Canadian work experience on the first date of each month.

 

[BlindGoku]

Apparently this analysis is over-interpreted and thus is inserted with significant personal anticipation that obfuscated the very simple reality:

(TL; DR): every 4 weeks there are approximately 3300-4000 or more profiles with CRS score higher than the previous round are entering the EE pool, which could be either new profiles or old profiles with updated CRS scores due to one more year Canadian work experience.

We just need to look at the previous three CEC-specific invitations, which had a 4-week gap between each other.

June 25, cut-off score 431, 3508 people invited.

July 23, cut-off score 445, 3343 people invited.

Aug 20, cut-off score 454, 3300 people invited.

The number of invitations in each round is quite similar, especially for the ones in July and the one in August. Every day there are people celebrating their work anniversaries thus meeting the minimum eligibility requirements of CEC, or gaining more CRS points. The 4-week gap seems to gain approximately 3300-4000 or even more profiles with CRS score higher than the previous round that push the cut-off score, which seems to be more reasonable for the overall immigration system. Remember: the EE system will add the score for one more year Canadian work experience on the first date of each month.

I think CEC specific draws will stabilize around the mid 460s and All program will be around low 470s

 

[Saahil VD]

Hey guys! Posting for the first time. I have an active express entry profile with CRS 468 FSW category. What are my chances of getting an ITA considering all program draws happening once a month now and my profile will also expire in Jan 2021 . Please let me know your thoughts!

 

[Furri.6]

Hey guys! Posting for the first time. I have an active express entry profile with CRS 468 FSW category. What are my chances of getting an ITA considering all program draws happening once a month now and my profile will also expire in Jan 2021 . Please let me know your thoughts!

In my opinion, I don't think the crs scores might go below 470s until January. Although 468 is a good score, the alternating draws have made it difficult for crs to drop. Anyway, I wish you good luck!!

 

[NikSharma01]

Apparently this analysis is over-interpreted and thus is inserted with significant personal anticipation that obfuscated the very simple reality:

(TL; DR): every 4 weeks there are approximately 3300-4000 or more profiles with CRS score higher than the previous round are entering the EE pool, which could be either new profiles or old profiles with updated CRS scores due to one more year Canadian work experience.

We just need to look at the previous three CEC-specific invitations, which had a 4-week gap between each other.

June 25, cut-off score 431, 3508 people invited.

July 23, cut-off score 445, 3343 people invited.

Aug 20, cut-off score 454, 3300 people invited.

The number of invitations in each round is quite similar, especially for the ones in July and the one in August. Every day there are people celebrating their work anniversaries thus meeting the minimum eligibility requirements of CEC, or gaining more CRS points. The 4-week gap seems to gain approximately 3300-4000 or even more profiles with CRS score higher than the previous round that push the cut-off score, which seems to be more reasonable for the overall immigration system. Remember: the EE system will add the score for one more year Canadian work experience on the first date of each month.

When did I say there ain't new applications added !! If you would have paid attention, I also pointed this out that within the draws every fortnight a few additional applications enter into the pool. I believe you missed that !

I have specifically targeted a CRS range of the applications for now. So, after issuing the ITAs on 19-20 Aug, there were 0 applications left from the range 480/490-1200 because all of those folks were considered already for the draws.

Obviously, many more applications would have entered the pool like always. Therefore what I mentioned was; nearly 19k applications were there from 455-1200, but after the ITAs this figure dropped to about 15k on/after 20 Aug.

However, now there would be a few more applications into the same range. I believe approx 20k from 455 onwards /or 15k from 460-1200 !

Well, I believe your calculation could also be insignificant, because...

"As you mentioned many applicants would be upgrading their CRS scores with their responsible skill factors. So, there would also be many applicants whose CRS might be going to reduce due to birthdays /or no improvements into the CRS as well."

 

[shomaro]

When did I say there ain't new applications added !! If you would have paid attention, I also pointed this out that within the draws every fortnight a few additional applications enter into the pool. I believe you missed that !

I have specifically targeted a CRS range of the applications for now. So, after issuing the ITAs on 19-20 Aug, there were 0 applications left from the range 480/490-1200 because all of those folks were considered already for the draws.

Obviously, many more applications would have entered the pool like always. Therefore what I mentioned was; nearly 19k applications were there from 455-1200, but after the ITAs this figure dropped to about 15k on/after 20 Aug.

However, now there would be a few more applications into the same range. I believe approx 20k from 455 onwards /or 15k from 460-1200 !

Well, I believe your calculation could also be insignificant, because...

"As you mentioned many applicants would be upgrading their CRS scores with their responsible skill factors. So, there would also be many applicants whose CRS might be going to reduce due to birthdays /or no improvements into the CRS as well."

Apparently your original post was mixing CEC and FSW while there were many CEC-specific draws. It is impossible to estimate FSW in this situation.

The sentence you underscored is another over-interpretation, or resort to sophistry. The point gain by one more year is apparently significantly more than the loss of another birthday. Besides, the overall CRS of a profile is a net score considering all the factors of the applicant and their dependents.

By the way, I would suggest you use fewer exclamations as they won't make your points powerful but only incurring scrutiny of your words.

 

[NikSharma01]

Apparently your original post was mixing CEC and FSW while there were many CEC-specific draws. It is impossible to estimate FSW in this situation.

The sentence you underscored is another over-interpretation, or resort to sophistry. The point gain by one more year is apparently significantly more than the loss of another birthday. Besides, the overall CRS of a profile is a net score considering all the factors of the applicant and their dependents.

By the way, I would suggest you use fewer exclamations as they won't make your points powerful but only incurring scrutiny of your words.

Yes, I was considering both FSW and CEC applicants in my calculations amd still doing that. However, I have emphasized more on the CRS range as the type of applicants directly relies on it. No doubt, FSW folks would be next to 0 within the range of 480-1200. As, this range is either occupied by CEC applicants or PNP ones.
Whereas, the FSW folks usually have a CRS up to 480 and considering the previous draws I focused on the range from 455-480 which has a combination of CEC and FSW folks.

Besides, considering the improved points /or decreased ones, both affect the applicants. However, CEC ones have plus point here with more points addition, and for the FSW ones, even 5 point makes a huge difference.

Buddy, the maximum number of exclamations I used is 4! I didn't use much. I don't know what made you think like that.

 

[shomaro]

Yes, I was considering both FSW and CEC applicants in my calculations amd still doing that. However, I have emphasized more on the CRS range as the type of applicants directly relies on it. No doubt, FSW folks would be next to 0 within the range of 480-1200. As, this range is either occupied by CEC applicants or PNP ones.
Whereas, the FSW folks usually have a CRS up to 480 and considering the previous draws I focused on the range from 455-480 which has a combination of CEC and FSW folks.

Besides, considering the improved points /or decreased ones, both affect the applicants. However, CEC ones have plus point here with more points addition, and for the FSW ones, even 5 point makes a huge difference.

Buddy, the maximum number of exclamations I used is 4! I didn't use much. I don't know what made you think like that.

I used zero exclamation (smile)

 

[abhishek_89]

Any predictions for the next fsw draw and the cut off score?

The most likely scenario for express entry draw # 162 would be an all program draw on Sept 2nd with 3900 ITAs issued and a CRS cut off score around CRS 474.

 

[Shawan]

Anyone from CEC here? I have a biometric request about to due in few days. However, none of the service canada location is opened. The IRCC website says we do not have to contact them to extend the BIL due date. Should i just wait and doing nothing until they start to open service canada again?

 

[navinball]

Yes, I was considering both FSW and CEC applicants in my calculations amd still doing that. However, I have emphasized more on the CRS range as the type of applicants directly relies on it. No doubt, FSW folks would be next to 0 within the range of 480-1200. As, this range is either occupied by CEC applicants or PNP ones.
Whereas, the FSW folks usually have a CRS up to 480 and considering the previous draws I focused on the range from 455-480 which has a combination of CEC and FSW folks.

Besides, considering the improved points /or decreased ones, both affect the applicants. However, CEC ones have plus point here with more points addition, and for the FSW ones, even 5 point makes a huge difference.

Buddy, the maximum number of exclamations I used is 4! I didn't use much. I don't know what made you think like that.

You have been wrong pretty much everytime you make an 'analysis'. A cauliflower makes better predictions.

 

[EscoBlades]

Anyone from CEC here? I have a biometric request about to due in few days. However, none of the service canada location is opened. The IRCC website says we do not have to contact them to extend the BIL due date. Should i just wait and doing nothing until they start to open service canada again?

Yes

 

[Shawan]

Yes

Thanks, are you also waiting for biometric collection?

 

[snehalrv]

Hi Folks,

I am entering into express entry pool with 456 points (CEC). What are the chances of getting ITA in CEC specific draw?

Thanks

 

[hakweye]

Hi Folks,

I am entering into express entry pool with 456 points (CEC). What are the chances of getting ITA in CEC specific draw?

Thanks

With consistent CEC only draws happening , you should be able to get it before year end I think.