Ray of Hope - 161st Draw - CEC

[princebabu]

Date and time of round: August 20, 2020 at 11:10:05 UTC
CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 454
Tie-breaking rule: July 27, 2020 at 17:05:11 UTC.
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Date I submitted my profile: August 11, 2020 with score 460. Am I eligible or not-eligible?

 

[armaanwadhwa]

I think score will go down, but not significantly, only ~2 points at the time. Remember there is a backlog of FSWs of 475 and below that have been stuck for like 6 months in the pool. At the same time, it seems that there is not a heavy influx of new FSWs with high scores.
My prediction is 474 for next draw in two weeks. My advise, is that everyone with scores in the 460s should look into ways to increase their score, because as things go back to normal (more IELTS centere open, and ECA done quicker), I would expect CRS scores of 470+ only going forward.

What makes you think majority of the people are at 475? It all depends on what the real depth is and at which score. If it's at 471, the score may drop to that levels. Let me know if I'm wrong in my reasoning

 

[junro]

Date and time of round: August 20, 2020 at 11:10:05 UTC
CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 454
Tie-breaking rule: July 27, 2020 at 17:05:11 UTC.
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Date I submitted my profile: August 11, 2020 with score 460. Am I eligible or not-eligible?

Hey bud! Yes youre eligible. You will receive your ITA soon. I was invited last CEC draw and I received the email at 5pm EST.

 

[BlindGoku]

What makes you think majority of the people are at 475? It all depends on what the real depth is and at which score. If it's at 471, the score may drop to that levels. Let me know if I'm wrong in my reasoning

I'm not saying the majority of people are on 475, just saying that all of the 475 FSWs (and below) have been stuck in the pool since March.

 

[BlindGoku]

I just received mine. Sometimes it may take upto 24 hours.

Congrats on the ITA!

 

[armaanwadhwa]

I'm not saying the majority of people are on 475, just saying that all of the 475 FSWs (and below) have been stuck in the pool since March.

Correct but there aren't many. The influx is not that much when it comes to FSW only. CEC and PNP are inflating the pool at the moment and any draws happening even alternate is a good news to keep this moving. If majority of the density is at 471 472, the next cut off will be that. Just hope the density is at that and not 474 475 (which I highly doubt). As from October 2019, the cutoffs were always 469 470 471 472, which suggests that major density is around those points only.

 

[princebabu]

Got ITA

 

[pzzz23]

I sub

Got ITA

Congrats..I'm still waiting but I submitted on 14th Aug.

 

[princebabu]

I sub

Congrats..I'm still waiting but I submitted on 14th Aug.

Hope, you will get soon.

 

[Mehroj]

The time in the announcement is in UTC, just convert to your time zone to see if your profile entered/updated before that.

2:21 pm UTC

 

[shomaro]

2:21 pm UTC

Then that's later than the ITA time, you may need to wait for the next round.

 

[Mehroj]

Then that's later than the ITA time, you may need to wait for the next round.

Oh I meant I received my ITA that time

 

[Sharanm7]

Correct but there aren't many. The influx is not that much when it comes to FSW only. CEC and PNP are inflating the pool at the moment and any draws happening even alternate is a good news to keep this moving. If majority of the density is at 471 472, the next cut off will be that. Just hope the density is at that and not 474 475 (which I highly doubt). As from October 2019, the cutoffs were always 469 470 471 472, which suggests that major density is around those points only.

Makes sense. I wish for the same

 

[Jeet94]

Read this interesting article and studied the data as well. If the immigration levels are to stay like this, there is a chance that the points could drop down to mid 460s. Trying to stay positive.


https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...o-canada-drops-64-threatening-economic-growth

 

[ns317]

Correct but there aren't many. The influx is not that much when it comes to FSW only. CEC and PNP are inflating the pool at the moment and any draws happening even alternate is a good news to keep this moving. If majority of the density is at 471 472, the next cut off will be that. Just hope the density is at that and not 474 475 (which I highly doubt). As from October 2019, the cutoffs were always 469 470 471 472, which suggests that major density is around those points only.

471-472 is where inflow meets outflow. That's the point from which it'll be difficult for the cut-off to drop, even with regular draws.

Right now however, there are a lot of candidates still in 475 which is going to be a reasonable barrier to overcome.

By my reckoning, around 1,500 candidates join the pool above 480 every two weeks. In addition, above 480, around 400-500 are leftover in the pool who were FSW and didn't get called during the PNP/CEC draw. So if there's an all programs draw on Sep 2nd, half of the 3,900 invites would go to those above 480.

The same numbers (fresh joinees from last two weeks + FSW leftover from the two weeks prior) for 475 to 480 is around 700-800 based on last few months' trends.

So by the time we get to those stuck at 475 since March, there are only around 1,200 invites left. It's difficult to estimate the density at 475, but it could well be upwards of 800 as well. So once those guys get called in the next draw, only a few hundred invites will be leftover and that's likely to finish in the 474 range or if we are lucky, a bit into 473.