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Ray of Hope - 132nd Draw

Ramsha Bukhari

Star Member
Sep 23, 2019
174
66
I've been tracking the number of OINP nominations being issued between each draw, taking the myimmitracker site as a proxy. There has been no end to the continuous flow of nominations as yet. There were 22 nominations reported at this site in the period between Nov 13 and Nov 27, which is even more than there were between Oct 30 and Nov 13. Some of these are even from the August 1 NOI group, and not from the August 15 NOI group.

myimmitracker is just a proxy, but I strongly suspect OINP continues to be the main reason behind the high cut-off. There were plenty of nominations issued on November 25th and 26th. The pool had 709 candidates with 600+ points on November 23rd. This could easily have exceeded 1,000 by the 27th.

So I'd stay calm and wait for another two draws for the OINP effect to completely mitigate. The score should come back to the early 460s after that.
I read somewhere the at the start of the year the effect of PNP's is minimum.Why is that?do the PNP's get reset at the start of the year?Sorry for my lesser knowledge about PNP's , i am just starting.
 

akwadhwa08

Member
Nov 14, 2019
17
2
Hello Guys,

I have some doubts regarding documents submission post ITA.

1. My HR can not give all the details like joining date, number of hours per week, my job duties etc.(because of organisational policies).
My manager is ready to give all these details but on plain paper as he is not authorized to use the company letterhead.
What should I do in this case ?

2. Also, I read that it is necessary to upload pay slips along with the employment proof, I have almost 40 payslips. How am I supposed to combine these much into one pdf file ?

3. For proof of funds, I transferred a huge amount from my father's account into mine in November only. How will I submit the proof of fund because it will not be reflected in average balance of last 6 months ?

Can anyone help please ?
 

ns317

Hero Member
Aug 29, 2019
264
262
I read somewhere the at the start of the year the effect of PNP's is minimum.Why is that?do the PNP's get reset at the start of the year?Sorry for my lesser knowledge about PNP's , i am just starting.
There's no trend here really.. Express Entry is a young program and each year has seen changes. So we can't conclude anything.

However in this particular case, Ontario last issued NOIs on July 12, August 1 and August 15. Between the three sets, there were a total of 4,393 NOIs issued. After this, these 4,393 candidates had to submit their applications to Ontario and they had to go through an assessment process which typically lasts 2-3 months. After this assessment, the candidates are issued an extra 600 points (this step is the 'nomination') and they get ITAs in the next express entry draw. The nominations started flooding in from the first draw in October and this led to a spike in the 600+ points candidates.

So these 4,393 NOIs in July and August have almost all been nominated now. There are still maybe 10-15% left who should get nominated before the next 2 EE draws.

This is why you hear people saying the effect of PNPs will minimize at the start of the year. The next set of NOIs are expected only by the middle of 2020. So from the January draw onwards, there should be significantly less 600+ points candidates in the pool.
 
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mostt

Newbie
Nov 29, 2019
5
2
First time here, Just wanted to ask experts around, do I stand a chance with 466 before losing age marks on March 2020?
 

aikay

Star Member
Aug 8, 2019
159
91
There's no trend here really.. Express Entry is a young program and each year has seen changes. So we can't conclude anything.

However in this particular case, Ontario last issued NOIs on July 12, August 1 and August 15. Between the three sets, there were a total of 4,393 NOIs issued. After this, these 4,393 candidates had to submit their applications to Ontario and they had to go through an assessment process which typically lasts 2-3 months. After this assessment, the candidates are issued an extra 600 points (this step is the 'nomination') and they get ITAs in the next express entry draw. The nominations started flooding in from the first draw in October and this led to a spike in the 600+ points candidates.

So these 4,393 NOIs in July and August have almost all been nominated now. There are still maybe 10-15% left who should get nominated before the next 2 EE draws.

This is why you hear people saying the effect of PNPs will minimize at the start of the year. The next set of NOIs are expected only by the middle of 2020. So from the January draw onwards, there should be significantly less 600+ points candidates in the pool.
But Saskatchewan doesn't seem to have any pattern . It's just like they issue NOI like 3 times in a month ..and they do that in large numbers ....
 

Lazybug

Star Member
May 1, 2019
148
124
Hello Guys,

I have some doubts regarding documents submission post ITA.

1. My HR can not give all the details like joining date, number of hours per week, my job duties etc.(because of organisational policies).
My manager is ready to give all these details but on plain paper as he is not authorized to use the company letterhead.
What should I do in this case ?

2. Also, I read that it is necessary to upload pay slips along with the employment proof, I have almost 40 payslips. How am I supposed to combine these much into one pdf file ?

3. For proof of funds, I transferred a huge amount from my father's account into mine in November only. How will I submit the proof of fund because it will not be reflected in average balance of last 6 months ?

Can anyone help please ?
1/2. In that case, provide all the supporting documents for your case and explain it in the LOE. If you get a letter from your manager, include visiting cards and his contact info so that they can verify its authenticity. I'm not sure if you would require an affidavit in this case.

The payslips will definitely help you make your case stronger, and it is not mandatory to upload them. In my case, I will only upload the first and last one but you can upload from a year each additionally just to prove continuation of your work experience and payment.

3. Get a gift deed made, notarized and signed by you and your father. Include the transaction details so that CIC knows where the money came from. For gift deeds, 6months of bank statement having the fund requirement is not necessary.

Just helping with what I know and these are not full-proof suggestions.
 

ns317

Hero Member
Aug 29, 2019
264
262
But Saskatchewan doesn't seem to have any pattern . It's just like they issue NOI like 3 times in a month ..and they do that in large numbers ....
Saskatchewan average processing time is some 40 weeks (as opposed to 8 weeks for Ontario). So they won't hit the pool that quickly. Eventually, yes those NOIs will also lead to a spike in the CRS score.
 

Ramsha Bukhari

Star Member
Sep 23, 2019
174
66
There's no trend here really.. Express Entry is a young program and each year has seen changes. So we can't conclude anything.

However in this particular case, Ontario last issued NOIs on July 12, August 1 and August 15. Between the three sets, there were a total of 4,393 NOIs issued. After this, these 4,393 candidates had to submit their applications to Ontario and they had to go through an assessment process which typically lasts 2-3 months. After this assessment, the candidates are issued an extra 600 points (this step is the 'nomination') and they get ITAs in the next express entry draw. The nominations started flooding in from the first draw in October and this led to a spike in the 600+ points candidates.

So these 4,393 NOIs in July and August have almost all been nominated now. There are still maybe 10-15% left who should get nominated before the next 2 EE draws.

This is why you hear people saying the effect of PNPs will minimize at the start of the year. The next set of NOIs are expected only by the middle of 2020. So from the January draw onwards, there should be significantly less 600+ points candidates in the pool.
ahhh alright.it makes sense to me now.thanks
 
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naija2canadapr

Full Member
Jul 17, 2019
44
48
Dear @Tousif_27 ,
Below is my calculation estimation for 11th Dec draw:

After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)

441-450= 9,135


Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.


I pray your predictions are spot on like the November 27th draw. Have you gotten ITA yet or PNP? Would love to know because you have been so helpful in calculating all this. You are appreciated.
 

naija2canadapr

Full Member
Jul 17, 2019
44
48
Based on what i observed in the last 9 months, due to Federal Skilled Trades only draws, there is a longer break in between invites. Hence accumulation is of 450+ is higher. Additionally, there were 3,350 invited (rather than 3600 or 3900) from Jan to May, which also enabled accumulation of higher pointers. Therefore, i believe that as we go into 2020 and if draws will be fixated on on 3600 for 2-6 draws the score will go down 450 or so.

You can clearly observe impact of FST:

Draw 128 Oct 16 500 (Federal Skilled Trades only) 357 (Federal Skilled Trades only)
Draw 129 Oct 30 3,900 475 (high)
Draw 130 Nov 13 3,600 472 (lower)
Draw 131 Nov 27 3,600 471 (lower)

Next draw: 467 or so... next draw.



I say a loud and resounding amen to this.