Ray of Hope - 131st Draw

[yg96]

Hi, this is my take on future draws. Just my analysis...


October 2:

Taking into consideration the calculation done by fellow members:

601-1200 = 905

451-600 = 9941


After 3900 ITAs on October 2nd, the pool as on October 3rd would have been:

601- 1200 = 0

465 - 600 = 0

451- 464 = 6964(9941-2995)- Since CRS was 464, remaining 6964 belongs to this range.


October 11

Total addition of candidates with CRS range 451-600 between October 3 & 11 = 9632- 6964 = 2686.

Among these additions, I strongly feel that around 70% are above 464 and 30% are below 464. Considering this the pool as on October 11 published by IRCC was:

601-1200 = 509

464- 600 = 1880 ( 70% of new addition i.e 2686)

451- 464 = 6964 + 805 = 7751 (30% of new addition i.e. 2686)


October 25

Total new addition of candidates with CRS range 451- 600 between October 12 & 25 = 12999 - (7751+1880) = 3367

Again, around 70% of these additions are above 464 and 30% are below 464 and above 451. Considering this and the data of IRCC, the pool as on October 25 was:

601- 1200 = 1255

465- 600 = 1880 + 2356 = 4236 ( 70% of new addition i.e 3367)

451- 464 = 7751 + 1010 = 8761 ( 30% of new addition i.e 3367)


October 30

Considering the past trends and recent trends, on average around 200 to 300 people with CRS between 451-600 enter into the pool per day. So we will take this matter into consideration for calculating number of new profiles.

Pool as on October 30: (considering 200 candidates per day for 5 days above 451 to 600)

601- 1200 = 1255 + 250 (50candidates per day for 5days ) = 1505

465- 600 = 4236 + 750 ( 150 candidates per day for 5 days) = 4986

451- 464 = 8761 + 250 ( 50 candidates per day for 5 days) = 9011


After the draw on October 30 with CRS of 475 with 3900 ITAs, the pool on October 31st might have been:

601- 1200 = 0

476- 600 = 0

465- 475 = 2591 (4986 - remaining 2395 ITAs)

451 - 464 = 9011


November 8:

Total new addition of candidates with CRS range 451- 600 between October 31 & Nov 8 = 14180 - (9011+2591) = 2578

Considering 280 candidates per day between 451-600 for 9 days from Oct 31 to Nov 8, the pool might have been:

601- 1200 = 757

476- 600 = 900 (100 candidates per day for 9 days)

465- 475 = 2591 + 958 = 3549 (100 candidates per day for 9 days rounded off to tally the pool published by IRCC)

451 - 464 = 9011 + 720 = 9731 ( 80 candidates per day for 9 days rounded off to tally the pool published by IRCC)


November 13:

Considering 255 candidates per day between 451-600 for 5 days from Nov 9 to Nov 13, the pool might have been:

601 - 1200 = 757 + 275 = 1032 (55/day)

476 - 600 = 900+ 500 = 1400 (100 candidates per day for 5 days)

465 - 475 = 3549 + 500 = 4049 (100 candidates per day for 5 days)

451 - 464 = 9731 + 275 = 10006 (55 candidates per day for 5 days)


After the draw on November 13 with CRS of 472 with 3600 ITAs, the pool on November 14th might have been:

601- 1200 = 0

473- 600 = 0

465- 472 = 2881 (4049 - remaining 1168 ITAs)

451 - 464 = 10006


November 27

Considering 220 candidates per day between 451-600 for 14 days from Nov 14 to Nov 27, the pool might be:

601- 1200= 900 ( I believe that PNPs now will slow down a bit but will still remain above the number of PNPs in September i.e around 500).

473- 600 = 1400 (100 candidates per day for 14 days)

465- 472 = 2881+980 = 3861 (70 candidates per day for 14 days)

451- 464 = 10006 + 700 =10706 (50 candidates per day for 14 days)


Considering the draw on November 27 with CRS of 470 with 3600 ITAs, the pool on November 28th might be:

601- 1200 = 0

471- 600 = 0

465- 470 = 2561 (3861 - remaining 1300 ITAs)

451 - 464 = 10706



December 11

Considering 250 candidates per day between 451-600 for 13 days from Nov 28 to December 11, the pool might be:

601- 1200= 800

471- 600 = 1400 (100 candidates per day for 14 days)

465- 470 = 2561+700= 3261 (50 candidates per day for 14 days)

451- 464 = 10706 + 700 =11406 (50 candidates per day for 14 days)


Considering the draw on December 11 with CRS of 468 with 3600 ITAs, the pool on December 12th might be:

601- 1200 = 0

469- 600 = 0

465- 468 = 1861 (3261 - remaining 1400 ITAs)

451 - 464 = 11406


December 18

Considering 250 candidates per day between 451-600 for 7 days from December 12 to December 18, the pool might be:



601- 1200= 350

469- 600 = 840 (120 candidates per day for 7 days)

465- 468 = 1861+350= 2211 (50 candidates per day for 7 days)

451- 464 = 11406 + 350 =11756 (50 candidates per day for 7 days)


Considering the draw on December 18 with CRS of 464 with 3600 ITAs, the pool on December 19th might be:

601- 1200 = 0

465- 600 = 0

451 - 464 = 11756 -199 = 11557



January 8 2020


Considering 250 candidates per day between 451-600 for 20 days from December 18 to January 8, the pool might be:


601- 1200= 900

465- 600 = 4000 (200 candidates per day for 20 days)

451- 464 = 11557 + 1000 =12557 (50 candidates per day for 20 days)


Considering 3600 ITAs the score might shoot upto 472 or more again!!

hmm i think u r right but what if there is no b2b draw as u mentioned on dec 18 and CIC is better than the last year so far and has issued 1100ish more ITAs as compared to last year and they are close on achieving their yearly target is there anyone who thinks that they will go more than their target this year i highly doubt it. :-?

 

[Ria-sharma]

Yes we do give them permission but they do not have the permission to ask from the bank directly as the bank cannot disclose this information to anyone calling and saying I am the visa officer from Canada. (that's what I think logically) and I have few frndz working in bank! They said the same. The thing is that I have an investment opportunity which will come most likely between this time! So I was wondering if I can do both together I.e do the investment and show cic the funds in account as well.

Even though they can't check your balance by calling your bank, they can always ask for updated bank statement from you at any given date during the processing of your application

 

[Wrath]

If there is no b2b draw , then?

Well in that case it's hard to guess. My score is 468. At the present scenario it might be touch and go whose score is around 467-468 by end of December. But personally I feel like we should get ita by last draw in 2019. If u have chance to work on your score I would say do it or just be positive for few more weeks. Good luck

 

[Vvek]

hmm i think u r right but what if there is no b2b draw as u mentioned on dec 18 and CIC is better than the last year so far and has issued 1100ish more ITAs as compared to last year and they are close on achieving their yearly target is there anyone who thinks that they will go more than their target this year i highly doubt it. :-?

I believe there will still be three draws. I have not seen months without two draws from 2015. The logic of conducting one draw would have been feasible if they had conducted three draws on November, which they didn't and also if they decide not to conduct draws on 18th October then only possible future date would be 9th of Jan. So I don't think that will happen(1-month gap). IRCC has so far not done anything unusual so there is no reason to not conduct three more draws this year, at least. It's just the number of applicants is increasing and it is a steady increase, not a drastic one. The only thing that is costing us 2 CRS point on each draw is PNP. Prior September, the maximum number of PNP per draw would be around 305 to 400, but now it is around 1000-1200, means decrease in 600 to 700 application, would have easily covered two CRS drop.

 

[Wrath]

Hi guys, I strongly feel CRS below 465 should start looking for alternative ways to increase CRS. I believe there are three more draws left this year with probably one back to back on December 18. This way the CRS might drop down to 464 or 465 but not below that. After that, there is 3-week gap and CRS would probably reach 472 and above.(Last year with 3-week gap score rose up by 10 points). If IRCC decides to do 4 draws which means two back to backs, then CRS might touch 460, but that is unlikely considering the decrease in ITA this week.
My predictions if IRCC conducts three draws with 1 back to back (Best case):
November 27: 470
October 11 : 468
October 18: 464

My predictions if IRCC conducts three draws with 1 back to back (Worst case):
November 27 : 471
October 11 : 469
October 18: 466

My detailed analysis is posted below. Discussions are welcome!

Looks pretty fair analysis. I feel like we might end up with worst case scenario .

 

[Ria-sharma]

With 469 CRS at present( IELTS LRWS 9,9,7,7)...I'm thinking to sit for IELTS again on Nov 23(though it's exhausting).. what you guys think should I resit or there are positive chances of getting an invitation with my present score?

 

[Wrath]

With 469 CRS at present( IELTS LRWS 9,9,7,7)...I'm thinking to sit for IELTS again on Nov 23(though it's exhausting).. what you guys think should I resit or there are positive chances of getting an invitation with my present score?

You have pretty decent score to get ITA in next 2-3 draws if not next draw

 

[Rockybee]

Hi guys, is my express entry profile eligible if my open work permit expires 3 days before the next draw? If I receive an ITA in the next draw should I apply and submit my docs?

 

[GG12345]

Score 471. Hopefully will get ITA in the next draw. Hope they will reduce the cut-off score drastically.

 

[Ria-sharma]

You have pretty decent score to get ITA in next 2-3 draws if not next draw

Thanks, just thinking to give it a fight one last time in case of the worst-case scenario..hoping that everyone above 460 gets their ITA this year

 

[Ria-sharma]

Hi guys, is my express entry profile eligible if my open work permit expires 3 days before the next draw? If I receive an ITA in the next draw should I apply and submit my docs?

yes, ofcourse, your profile will be eligible as it has nothing to do with your open work permit.. but don't know about what your status will be in Canada after your OWP expires.

 

[GG12345]

With 469 CRS at present( IELTS LRWS 9,9,7,7)...I'm thinking to sit for IELTS again on Nov 23(though it's exhausting).. what you guys think should I resit or there are positive chances of getting an invitation with my present score?

Wow, R9 and L9 is amazing score!! I I do not want to discourage but getting 7.5 or above in writing is bit tough, but speaking score can get improved. You will have to maintain R and L scores higher in next exam. It's still a gamble but wish you very good luck if you take an exam.

 

[terez1]

Hi all,
I am trying to explore all options, can i apply for PNP while awaiting ITA my score is currently 460 but i stand a good chance for SINP... If ITA comes before SINP conclusion can i accept the ITA while SINP is processing. Bearing in mind Saks takes 27 to 29 weeks to process.
Having hope that scores drop but SINP as a backup plan.

 

[Ria-sharma]

Wow, R9 and L9 is amazing score!! I I do not want to discourage but getting 7.5 or above in writing is bit tough, but speaking score can get improved. You will have to maintain R and L scores higher in next exam. It's still a gamble but wish you very good luck if you take an exam.

Thanks, nd best of luck for ur application as you are definitely getting an invitation in the next draw.

 

[GG12345]

Hi guys, is my express entry profile eligible if my open work permit expires 3 days before the next draw? If I receive an ITA in the next draw should I apply and submit my docs?

I guess it would be safe to remain in implied status. I guess It's a risk to accept ITA because points you would have claimed on date of ITA are not actually justified. Better to check with immigration experts.