Hi, this is my take on future draws. Just my analysis...
October 2:
Taking into consideration the calculation done by fellow members:
601-1200 = 905
451-600 = 9941
After 3900 ITAs on October 2nd, the pool as on October 3rd would have been:
601- 1200 = 0
465 - 600 = 0
451- 464 = 6964(9941-2995)- Since CRS was 464, remaining 6964 belongs to this range.
October 11
Total addition of candidates with CRS range 451-600 between October 3 & 11 = 9632- 6964 = 2686.
Among these additions, I strongly feel that around 70% are above 464 and 30% are below 464. Considering this the pool as on October 11 published by IRCC was:
601-1200 = 509
464- 600 = 1880 ( 70% of new addition i.e 2686)
451- 464 = 6964 + 805 = 7751 (30% of new addition i.e. 2686)
October 25
Total new addition of candidates with CRS range 451- 600 between October 12 & 25 = 12999 - (7751+1880) = 3367
Again, around 70% of these additions are above 464 and 30% are below 464 and above 451. Considering this and the data of IRCC, the pool as on October 25 was:
601- 1200 = 1255
465- 600 = 1880 + 2356 = 4236 ( 70% of new addition i.e 3367)
451- 464 = 7751 + 1010 = 8761 ( 30% of new addition i.e 3367)
October 30
Considering the past trends and recent trends, on average around 200 to 300 people with CRS between 451-600 enter into the pool per day. So we will take this matter into consideration for calculating number of new profiles.
Pool as on October 30: (considering 200 candidates per day for 5 days above 451 to 600)
601- 1200 = 1255 + 250 (50candidates per day for 5days ) = 1505
465- 600 = 4236 + 750 ( 150 candidates per day for 5 days) = 4986
451- 464 = 8761 + 250 ( 50 candidates per day for 5 days) = 9011
After the draw on October 30 with CRS of 475 with 3900 ITAs, the pool on October 31st might have been:
601- 1200 = 0
476- 600 = 0
465- 475 = 2591 (4986 - remaining 2395 ITAs)
451 - 464 = 9011
November 8:
Total new addition of candidates with CRS range 451- 600 between October 31 & Nov 8 = 14180 - (9011+2591) = 2578
Considering 280 candidates per day between 451-600 for 9 days from Oct 31 to Nov 8, the pool might have been:
601- 1200 = 757
476- 600 = 900 (100 candidates per day for 9 days)
465- 475 = 2591 + 958 = 3549 (100 candidates per day for 9 days rounded off to tally the pool published by IRCC)
451 - 464 = 9011 + 720 = 9731 ( 80 candidates per day for 9 days rounded off to tally the pool published by IRCC)
November 13:
Considering 255 candidates per day between 451-600 for 5 days from Nov 9 to Nov 13, the pool might have been:
601 - 1200 = 757 + 275 = 1032 (55/day)
476 - 600 = 900+ 500 = 1400 (100 candidates per day for 5 days)
465 - 475 = 3549 + 500 = 4049 (100 candidates per day for 5 days)
451 - 464 = 9731 + 275 = 10006 (55 candidates per day for 5 days)
After the draw on November 13 with CRS of 472 with 3600 ITAs, the pool on November 14th might have been:
601- 1200 = 0
473- 600 = 0
465- 472 = 2881 (4049 - remaining 1168 ITAs)
451 - 464 = 10006
November 27
Considering 220 candidates per day between 451-600 for 14 days from Nov 14 to Nov 27, the pool might be:
601- 1200= 900 ( I believe that PNPs now will slow down a bit but will still remain above the number of PNPs in September i.e around 500).
473- 600 = 1400 (100 candidates per day for 14 days)
465- 472 = 2881+980 = 3861 (70 candidates per day for 14 days)
451- 464 = 10006 + 700 =10706 (50 candidates per day for 14 days)
Considering the draw on November 27 with CRS of 470 with 3600 ITAs, the pool on November 28th might be:
601- 1200 = 0
471- 600 = 0
465- 470 = 2561 (3861 - remaining 1300 ITAs)
451 - 464 = 10706
December 11
Considering 250 candidates per day between 451-600 for 13 days from Nov 28 to December 11, the pool might be:
601- 1200= 800
471- 600 = 1400 (100 candidates per day for 14 days)
465- 470 = 2561+700= 3261 (50 candidates per day for 14 days)
451- 464 = 10706 + 700 =11406 (50 candidates per day for 14 days)
Considering the draw on December 11 with CRS of 468 with 3600 ITAs, the pool on December 12th might be:
601- 1200 = 0
469- 600 = 0
465- 468 = 1861 (3261 - remaining 1400 ITAs)
451 - 464 = 11406
December 18
Considering 250 candidates per day between 451-600 for 7 days from December 12 to December 18, the pool might be:
601- 1200= 350
469- 600 = 840 (120 candidates per day for 7 days)
465- 468 = 1861+350= 2211 (50 candidates per day for 7 days)
451- 464 = 11406 + 350 =11756 (50 candidates per day for 7 days)
Considering the draw on December 18 with CRS of 464 with 3600 ITAs, the pool on December 19th might be:
601- 1200 = 0
465- 600 = 0
451 - 464 = 11756 -199 = 11557
January 8 2020
Considering 250 candidates per day between 451-600 for 20 days from December 18 to January 8, the pool might be:
601- 1200= 900
465- 600 = 4000 (200 candidates per day for 20 days)
451- 464 = 11557 + 1000 =12557 (50 candidates per day for 20 days)
Considering 3600 ITAs the score might shoot upto 472 or more again!!