Ray of Hope - 129th Draw

[journey21]

It's such keen competition now!

 

[laypang]

My current score is 460
Is it possible for me to be invited before Sep 2020?

 

[Ilyushin76]

It's such keen competition now!

i would rephrase that to "positive struggle for betterment"

 

[Manishprasher]

451-600

on sept 27
601-1,200 579
451-600 8,946

on oct 11
601-1,200 509
451-600 9632

I think still this is a good sign, there isn't significant increase, So of draw happens next and next next Wednesday, still it will come down as we expected. Fingers crossed

There were almost 4516 new applications in the pool above 451+ range within this period. ~322 profiles per day!!
Even with this pace the score should come down if we look at quarterly trend comparing with last few years!! Elections could impact the quality of applicants they wish to intake more than reducing the number of immigrants. The scores will come down but not in the range that we saw in previous years! Every year a new benchmark is set especially by the increased interest and awareness of people opting to settle in Canada.
450+ will have a chance but not nearby!

 

[mrs.Saifee]

451-600


There were almost 4516 new applications in the pool above 451+ range within this period. ~322 profiles per day!!
Even with this pace the score should come down if we look at quarterly trend comparing with last few years!! Elections could impact the quality of applicants they wish to intake more than reducing the number of immigrants. The scores will come down but not in the range that we saw in previous years! Every year a new benchmark is set especially by the increased interest and awareness of people opting to settle in Canada.
450+ will have a chance but not nearby!

i guess 460s will be the new 450s now

 

[Manishprasher]

i guess 460s will be the new 450s now

I am sorry but I tend to disagree with this slightly, immigration is not only dependent on the number of people but also economic conditions globally. There’s a slowdown everywhere, US is in a trade war with China and other factors which make the overall situation fragile for any economy. this means that you need people to cover up for those who might leave when such instances happen. Hence I said the quality of people might be preferred, say blue collar jobs, skilled trade worker etc., over highly paid qualified personnel in the short run. Rest you never know what’s there plan!
My journey over past one year has been see-saw lol, but yeah optimism pulled me so far, Let’s hope it’s favourable to all!

 

[Ilyushin76]

I am sorry but I tend to disagree with this slightly, immigration is not only dependent on the number of people but also economic conditions globally. There’s a slowdown everywhere, US is in a trade war with China and other factors which make the overall situation fragile for any economy. this means that you need people to cover up for those who might leave when such instances happen. Hence I said the quality of people might be preferred, say blue collar jobs, skilled trade worker etc., over highly paid qualified personnel in the short run. Rest you never know what’s there plan!
My journey over past one year has been see-saw lol, but yeah optimism pulled me so far, Let’s hope it’s favourable to all!

The high rise in crs wont drop rapidly.

 

[Ilyushin76]

The high rise in crs wont drop rapidly.

and neither is it going below 460 this year.

 

[robin6869]

and neither is it going below 460 this year.

after Jan they will reduce ITA to 3300 then it would be worst, It wont ever come down at 455-450-445. What are these guys up to. If they don't want people in easily, can just announce like other countries "you're not welcome" but this game is killing us from inside. It is hard to decide, Shall i have faith or not !!!

 

[EnthuChap]

after Jan they will reduce ITA to 3300 then it would be worst, It wont ever come down at 455-450-445. What are these guys up to. If they don't want people in easily, can just announce like other countries "you're not welcome" but this game is killing us from inside. It is hard to decide, Shall i have faith or not !!!

You must keep actively monitoring PNPs and be open to proceed through this route.

 

[Ilyushin76]

You must keep actively monitoring PNPs and be open to proceed through this route.

Not all professions can take that option

 

[Ilyushin76]

after Jan they will reduce ITA to 3300 then it would be worst, It wont ever come down at 455-450-445. What are these guys up to. If they don't want people in easily, can just announce like other countries "you're not welcome" but this game is killing us from inside. It is hard to decide, Shall i have faith or not !!!

In my opinion it wont go below 460 at all. From the way things are going.

 

[shergill12]

Hi dear, below is my calculation after 30th Oct draw:

By 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))

Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/26=338profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 470-471
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-338 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-338 (of 475 newly added score)
-338 (of 474 newly added score)
-338 (of 473 newly added score)
-338 (of 472 newly added score)
-338 (of 471 newly added score)
-280 (of 338 of 470 newly added score)


After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 471, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =13,290(15,598-2,308)
441-450= 9,023

Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only. Let's assume that 13,290 are distributed equally to 451-471 score range. Thus, it makes 13,290/21= 633 profiles per score.

So, by 13th Nov, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,686(13,290+4,396(314x14d)
441-450= 9,163(9,023+140(10x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 4,396 profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600). Thus,it will make 4396/26=169profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 469
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-169 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-169 (of 475 newly added score)
-169 (of 474 newly added score)
-169 (of 473 newly added score)
-169 (of 472 newly added score)
-633 (of 471 left from 30th Oct draw)
-169 (of 471 newly added score)
-633 (of 470 left from 30th Oct draw)
-169 (of 470 newly added score)
-633 (of 469 left from 30th Oct draw)
-20 (169 of 469 newly added score)

After 13th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 469, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900-798)
451-600 =14,584(17,686-3,102)
441-450= 9,163

Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only. Let's assume that 13,290 are distributed equally to 451-469 score range. Thus, it makes 14,584/19= 767 profiles per score.

Let's assume that after 13th Nov draw,the influx of candidates in the range of 451-600 will be decrease to 200 profile per day.

So, by 27th Nov, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,384(14,584+2,800(200x14d)
441-450= 9,303(9,163+140(10x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,800 profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600). Thus,it will make 2800/26=108profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 467
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-108 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 475 newly added score)
-108 (of 474 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-767 (of 469 left from 13th Nov draw)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-767 (of 468 left from 13th Nov draw)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-596 (of 467 left from 13th Nov draw)

Let's say that after 30th October draw, the CRS cut off score keeps on decreasing by 2 points. Thefore, the cut off should reach 460 on 1st Jan or 15th Jan 2020.

Hey Mate, You're into Data science or anything similar or you do it just for sake of it?

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

Hi dear, below is my calculation after 30th Oct draw:

By 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))

Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/26=338profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 470-471
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-338 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-338 (of 475 newly added score)
-338 (of 474 newly added score)
-338 (of 473 newly added score)
-338 (of 472 newly added score)
-338 (of 471 newly added score)
-280 (of 338 of 470 newly added score)


After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 471, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =13,290(15,598-2,308)
441-450= 9,023

Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only. Let's assume that 13,290 are distributed equally to 451-471 score range. Thus, it makes 13,290/21= 633 profiles per score.

So, by 13th Nov, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,686(13,290+4,396(314x14d)
441-450= 9,163(9,023+140(10x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 4,396 profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600). Thus,it will make 4396/26=169profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 469
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-169 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-169 (of 475 newly added score)
-169 (of 474 newly added score)
-169 (of 473 newly added score)
-169 (of 472 newly added score)
-633 (of 471 left from 30th Oct draw)
-169 (of 471 newly added score)
-633 (of 470 left from 30th Oct draw)
-169 (of 470 newly added score)
-633 (of 469 left from 30th Oct draw)
-20 (169 of 469 newly added score)

After 13th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 469, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900-798)
451-600 =14,584(17,686-3,102)
441-450= 9,163

Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only. Let's assume that 13,290 are distributed equally to 451-469 score range. Thus, it makes 14,584/19= 767 profiles per score.

Let's assume that after 13th Nov draw,the influx of candidates in the range of 451-600 will be decrease to 200 profile per day.

So, by 27th Nov, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,384(14,584+2,800(200x14d)
441-450= 9,303(9,163+140(10x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,800 profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600). Thus,it will make 2800/26=108profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 467
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-108 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 475 newly added score)
-108 (of 474 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-767 (of 469 left from 13th Nov draw)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-767 (of 468 left from 13th Nov draw)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-596 (of 467 left from 13th Nov draw)

Let's say that after 30th October draw, the CRS cut off score keeps on decreasing by 2 points. Thefore, the cut off should reach 460 on 1st Jan or 15th Jan 2020.

Oh I just love the way to explain your predictions. Although a small factor to consider. Given ONIP/other pnps will have Utilised most of their nominations Qouta isnt PNP supposed to Reduce Significantly for next Two months? You should probably factor this in for post October Draws. There wont be a draw next week or Monday(Election Day) that is for sure. If a normal draw has to happen it has to happen today or tomorrow. In past years friday and thursday draws have indeed happened. Lets just pray this happens and the disaster is averted.

 

[gabriel900]

Oh I just love the way to explain your predictions. Although a small factor to consider. Given ONIP/other pnps will have Utilised most of their nominations Qouta isnt PNP supposed to Reduce Significantly for next Two months? You should probably factor this in for post October Draws. There wont be a draw next week or Monday(Election Day) that is for sure. If a normal draw has to happen it has to happen today or tomorrow. In past years friday and thursday draws have indeed happened. Lets just pray this happens and the disaster is averted.

Why does the gov shut down next week for elections? I always believed elections aren't a reason for anything to stop .. but maybe Canada is different.