Ray of Hope - 128th Draw

[Yemjim]

In the same context I want to ask, supposedly, if a candidate receives NOI from a particular province today. Is it possible to hold the NOI and not accept it for few months just to see possible chances to get picked in normal EE draw. If for some reason the general EE draw doesn’t favour, he/she can accept the NOI and go through PNP.
Thanks

Most NOIs (well I speak for Ontario )have a period in which you have to respond to their invitation. This is usually 30-45days,it is expected you submit your supporting documents before this period elapsed.however if you dont respond (and you simply wait while hoping the federal draw scores come down),then it's a no brainer that you dont want the NOI and it no longer becomes valid after the grace period expires.if your CSR scores are pretty reasonable..say 462 and above,you may choose not to take the NOI but if your scores are well below 460,why take the risk

 

[rajapanesar]

In the same context I want to ask, supposedly, if a candidate receives NOI from a particular province today. Is it possible to hold the NOI and not accept it for few months just to see possible chances to get picked in normal EE draw. If for some reason the general EE draw doesn’t favour, he/she can accept the NOI and go through PNP.
Thanks

Yes, one can wait. NOIs have some deadline within which we have to accept it or not. Usually 60 days (in case of OINP, I'm not sure about others). One can observe the pool draws if they are in their favour or not, then decide on acting on the NOI.

 

[VKA]

Most NOIs (well I speak for Ontario )have a period in which you have to respond to their invitation. This is usually 30-45days,it is expected you submit your supporting documents before this period elapsed.however if you dont respond (and you simply wait while hoping the federal draw scores come down),then it's a no brainer that you dont want the NOI and it no longer becomes valid after the grace period expires.if your CSR scores are pretty reasonable..say 462 and above,you may choose not to take the NOI but if your scores are well below 460,why take the risk

Thank you for your reply @Yemjim. I am sitting at 456 currently, and thinking of applying for SINP, however, I don’t have any NOI yet, so just testing the waters on both sides.
Thank you for your prerogative though.

 

[VKA]

Yes, one can wait. NOIs have some deadline within which we have to accept it or not. Usually 60 days (in case of OINP, I'm not sure about others). One can observe the pool draws if they are in their favour or not, then decide on acting on the NOI.

I heard its 6 months, but not sure thats for OINP or SINP. Thanks for your your reply @rajapanesar

 

[rajapanesar]

I heard its 6 months, but not sure thats for OINP or SINP. Thanks for your your reply @rajapanesar

6 months are usually for the processing of SINP, whether they accept it or not. NOI has a shorter date of expiry, lasting anywhere between 45 and 90 days, depending on the province. Although maximum 120 days is my guess, it most certainly should not be over 90 days in any case.

Edit : changed NOI days of expiry.

 

[VKA]

6 months are usually for the processing of SINP, whether they accept it or not. NOI has a shorter date of expiry, lasting anywhere between 40 and 120 days, depending on the province. Although 120 days is my guess, it most certainly should not be over 90 days in any case.

Yes, makes sense @rajapanesar. Thanks dear.

 

[VKA]

I joined the pool with 445 in February and was confident I was going to be invited based on last year's scores.Imagine my horror with the high scores all year.i had maxed out my options ( I have a Master degree and my IELT scores are S8.5L8.5R9W7).Then an unexpected NOI from Ontario in August came, which was quite heaven sent and i promptly applied and hoped for the best.just got my nomination on friday (Oct 11) and now have a score of 1045.
The reason for this epistle is to advice you to take all the opportunities available via PNP, Apply for SINP and PEI and keep on researching the web for more information.thats what I did.
Best of luck with your canada dreams.

Thats some journey @Yemjim. Kudos to your patience and confidence. You deserve to be wherever you are, and I wish you all the very best for your future endeavours in Canada. I’ll value your advice and will continue my persistence through PNP’s as well
Cheers

 

[Limitless]

Okay. Let's do the estimation for CRS cut off for 16th Oct again as there is new high score of 474 in thr range 451-600.


After 18th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -655)
451-600 =7,277(10,222-2,945)
441-450= 8,645

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of September 27, 2019 CRS score range
Number of candidates
601-1,200 =579
451-600 =8,946
441-450 =8,704

It means in 9 days from Sep 18th to Sep 27th, there where:
601-1,200 = 64 profile/day (579/9days)

451-600 = 185 prof/day (8,946-7277 = 1,669/9days)

441-450 = 7prof/day(8,704-8,645= 59/9days)

So, by 2nd October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=839(579+260(47x 5days))
451-600=9,871(8,946+925(185x5days))
441-450= 8,739 (8,704+35(7x5days))

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

So, by 16th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=658(47x14days)
451-600=9,400(6,810+2,590(185x14d)
441-450= 8,837 (8,739+98(7x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,590 profile from 2nd Oct to 16th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 474 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 2,590/24=108profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461-462
3,900 minus:
-658(601-1200)
-108 (of 474-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-108 (of 467 newly added score)
-108 (of 466 newly added score)
-108 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 462 newly added score)
-380 (of 486 of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)



If there will be around 1,000 of people sitting at score range of 601-1200 before the next draw,then

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461-463
3,900 minus:
-1,000(601-1200)
-108 (of 474-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-108 (of 467 newly added score)
-108 (of 466 newly added score)
-108 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 462 newly added score)
-38 (of 486 of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)

Whichever way I look @ it, all I see is a decrease in point no matter how small... This is indeed a ray of hope. While I sit and sip coffee on my 457, I believe we will get there someday. Thanks for the analysis @Dheana90

 

[Limitless]

I joined the pool with 445 in February and was confident I was going to be invited based on last year's scores.Imagine my horror with the high scores all year.i had maxed out my options ( I have a Master degree and my IELT scores are S8.5L8.5R9W7).Then an unexpected NOI from Ontario in August came, which was quite heaven sent and i promptly applied and hoped for the best.just got my nomination on friday (Oct 11) and now have a score of 1045.
The reason for this epistle is to advice you to take all the opportunities available via PNP, Apply for SINP and PEI and keep on researching the web for more information.thats what I did.
Best of luck with your canada dreams.

You OINP Candidates have started again . Always coming so close to the draw... @Yemjim congratulations to U.

 

[EEBANKER]

Dears,
I had a GC KEY and EE profile back in 2015 but never received ITA or anything. I havent log in since then and when i tried to reset the password it says account revoked. Can I create new GC KEY and profile or i have to restore the old one by contacting CIC?
Thanks

 

[Dheana90]

Thumbs up for your analysis

Thank you,dear..

 

[Yemjim]

You OINP Candidates have started again . Always coming so close to the draw... @Yemjim congratulations to U.

thank youbut
I was also realistic with my score not getting a chance this year,also I was gonna lose 5 points while sitting in the pool.i had an urgent choice to make (either PNP or learning French )

 

[Dheana90]

Whichever way I look @ it, all I see is a decrease in point no matter how small... This is indeed a ray of hope. While I sit and sip coffee on my 457, I believe we will get there someday. Thanks for the analysis @Dheana90

Yes, dear..The cut off score will come down eventually.

 

[Yemjim]

You OINP Candidates have started again . Always coming so close to the draw... @Yemjim congratulations to U.

thank youbut
I was also realistic with my score not getting a chance this year,also I was gonna lose 5 points while sitting in the pool.i had an urgent choice to make (either PNP or learning French )

 

[Limitless]

thank youbut
I was also realistic with my score not getting a chance this year,also I was gonna lose 5 points while sitting in the pool.i had an urgent choice to make (either PNP or learning French )

Nice... with my score of 457 and NOC 1221 am still hoping to be pick by any province but I have not received any... French is no go for me... coz I wud have to start from the scratch and that can be time consuming.