Okay. Let's do the estimation for CRS cut off for 16th Oct again as there is new high score of 474 in thr range 451-600.
After 18th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -655)
451-600 =7,277(10,222-2,945)
441-450= 8,645
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of September 27, 2019 CRS score range
Number of candidates
601-1,200 =579
451-600 =8,946
441-450 =8,704
It means in 9 days from Sep 18th to Sep 27th, there where:
601-1,200 = 64 profile/day (579/9days)
451-600 = 185 prof/day (8,946-7277 = 1,669/9days)
441-450 = 7prof/day(8,704-8,645= 59/9days)
So, by 2nd October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=839(579+260(47x 5days))
451-600=9,871(8,946+925(185x5days))
441-450= 8,739 (8,704+35(7x5days))
After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739
Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.
So, by 16th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=658(47x14days)
451-600=9,400(6,810+2,590(185x14d)
441-450= 8,837 (8,739+98(7x14days))
Suppose that from the newly added 2,590 profile from 2nd Oct to 16th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 474 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 2,590/24=108profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461-462
3,900 minus:
-658(601-1200)
-108 (of 474-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-108 (of 467 newly added score)
-108 (of 466 newly added score)
-108 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 462 newly added score)
-380 (of 486 of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)
If there will be around 1,000 of people sitting at score range of 601-1200 before the next draw,then
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461-463
3,900 minus:
-1,000(601-1200)
-108 (of 474-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-108 (of 467 newly added score)
-108 (of 466 newly added score)
-108 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 462 newly added score)
-38 (of 486 of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)