Ray of Hope - 124th Draw

[Sudeshna14]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on August 12):-

• 460+ (Total 03): | Harsha009: 463 | Sumedh: 462 | Rose1207: 460 |

• 455-460 (Total 61) – | nogachan301185: 459 | ExpressMan: 459 | Punit Singh: 459 | atuls: 459 | mehr_ibrahim: 459 | jaibajrangbali: 459 | imusi: 458 | Khanstan: 458 | Barinderpal: 458 | Kathy.m: 458 | SimAneja: 458 | hungta: 458 | MuibKhan: 458 | chirkut: 458 | Kenneth89: 458 | Herlo: 458 | vivi153: 458 | Dhaval Trivedi: 458 | jollystripes: 458 | jjk505: 458 | bhanu1986: 458 | Canucksrajiv: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | jamlabhai: 457 | #EEC: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | diaju:457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | yg96: 457 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | Teenz: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Angel1113: 456| missusd:456 | Akshay10: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | yigitsk: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 |

• 454-450 (Total 48) - nadal87: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | SG1507: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | thatguy1: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | vivosvoco: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Woqi114: 451 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | tonydlaw24: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 |

• 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | ssimmigration19: 449 | os32: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | ArsheyaBegum: 447 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | prince_lords:445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445

• 441-444 (Total 40)- Shaanoh: 444 | NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | nns14: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Lena32: 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | tonyzz: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | Sony K Koshy: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441

• 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435

• Below 435 (Total 6) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

Hi.. My score is 460.

 

[rajapanesar]

445/448/450/452 to 955/948/950/952

445 448 450 452
To
1045 1048 1050 1052
Actually

 

[Twindream]

Feeling so disappointed
But can’t stop myself from asking ,what are the chances of 457 score before November?
The tie break has now moved from June to August, is this a significant change?

 

[Ilyushin76]

Feeling so disappointed
But can’t stop myself from asking ,what are the chances of 457 score before November?
The tie break has now moved from June to August, is this a significant change?

Same question.

 

[Punitsingh]

Feeling so disappointed
But can’t stop myself from asking ,what are the chances of 457 score before November?
The tie break has now moved from June to August, is this a significant change?

Answer depends on if there is a draw on 21st Aug or not
If yes, u have some chances
If no, then no chance

As 21st August draw is going to bring down the CRS to 460 +/- 1
459- 70% chances
460, 461- 30% chances

 

[EnthuChap]

My cut off score estimation for 21st Aug based on the CRS score distribution.

After 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-407=3,193)
451-600 = 3,990 (7,183- 3,193)
441-450 =7,711

Note : As the cut off on 24th July draw was 459, it means the 3,990 profiles left in the pool are those who have score of 451-459 only.

Aug 2nd CRS distributions were:
601-1,200 =474
451-600 =6,827
441-450 =7,821

It means, in 10 days from 24th July to 2nd Aug, there were:

601-1,200 = 47profile/day (474/10)
451-600 =283pr/day(6,827-3,990=2,837/10)
441-450 =11profile/day (7,821-7,711=110/10)

By 12th Aug, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =944 (474+ 470(47x10days))
451-600 =9,657(6,827+ 2830(283x10))
441-450 = 7,931(7,821+ 110(11x10))

Note: 9,657 - 3,990 = 5,667 profile added between 2nd and 12th August are those who have score 466-600.

After 12th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-944=2,656)
451-600 = 7,001(9,657- 2,656)
441-450 =7,931

Note: 7001 includes 3,990 candidates who have score 451-459 left from 24th July draw. As the cut off score was 466, it mean 7001-3,990 =3,011 other remaining profiles are those who have score 466-600.

So, by 21th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 = 423(47x9days)
451-600 =9,548(7,001+2,547(283x9days))
441-450 = 8,030(7,931+ 99(11x9days))

Assume that from 2,547 newly added profile between 12th-21th Aug in 451-600 score range, half are those who have score 451-465 and half have 466-600.

If CIC issues 3,600 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 465-466
3,600 minus:
423 (601-1200)
3,011 ( 466-600 left from 12th August draw)
166 ( of 1.274 from 466-600 newly added profile)

If CIC issues 3,900 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 464-466.
3,900 minus:
423 (601-1200)
3,011 ( 466-600 left from 12th August draw)
466( of 1,274 from 466-600 newly added profile up to 21st Aug).

If CIC issues 4,000 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 464-466.
4,000 minus:
423 (601-1200)
3,011 ( 466-600 left from 12th August draw)
566( of 1,274 from 466-600 newly added profile up to 21st Aug).

Note: There is a big chance of more nomination from OINP will be approved from today and before the next draw so, the number of 1000+ scores will increase as well.

U r basically forecasting the same cutoff for 21st Aug draw. Unless there are more than 1000+ OINP nominations issued, I feel it is unlikely that cutoff will remain that high. Instead, I do think that there will be lesser PNP applicants on 21st draw and therefore, the drop in cutoff could be more.

 

[Midnight Blessing]

My cut off score estimation for 21st Aug based on the CRS score distribution.

After 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-407=3,193)
451-600 = 3,990 (7,183- 3,193)
441-450 =7,711

Note : As the cut off on 24th July draw was 459, it means the 3,990 profiles left in the pool are those who have score of 451-459 only.

Aug 2nd CRS distributions were:
601-1,200 =474
451-600 =6,827
441-450 =7,821

It means, in 10 days from 24th July to 2nd Aug, there were:

601-1,200 = 47profile/day (474/10)
451-600 =283pr/day(6,827-3,990=2,837/10)
441-450 =11profile/day (7,821-7,711=110/10)

By 12th Aug, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =944 (474+ 470(47x10days))
451-600 =9,657(6,827+ 2830(283x10))
441-450 = 7,931(7,821+ 110(11x10))

Note: 9,657 - 3,990 = 5,667 profile added between 2nd and 12th August are those who have score 466-600.

After 12th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-944=2,656)
451-600 = 7,001(9,657- 2,656)
441-450 =7,931

Note: 7001 includes 3,990 candidates who have score 451-459 left from 24th July draw. As the cut off score was 466, it mean 7001-3,990 =3,011 other remaining profiles are those who have score 466-600.

So, by 21th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 = 423(47x9days)
451-600 =9,548(7,001+2,547(283x9days))
441-450 = 8,030(7,931+ 99(11x9days))

Assume that from 2,547 newly added profile between 12th-21th Aug in 451-600 score range, half are those who have score 451-465 and half have 466-600.

If CIC issues 3,600 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 465-466
3,600 minus:
423 (601-1200)
3,011 ( 466-600 left from 12th August draw)
166 ( of 1.274 from 466-600 newly added profile)

If CIC issues 3,900 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 464-466.
3,900 minus:
423 (601-1200)
3,011 ( 466-600 left from 12th August draw)
466( of 1,274 from 466-600 newly added profile up to 21st Aug).

If CIC issues 4,000 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 464-466.
4,000 minus:
423 (601-1200)
3,011 ( 466-600 left from 12th August draw)
566( of 1,274 from 466-600 newly added profile up to 21st Aug).

Note: There is a big chance of more nomination from OINP will be approved from today and before the next draw so, the number of 1000+ scores will increase as well.

According to your calculations, the cutoff ll always stay at 466 or higher for the rest of the year and a simple biweekly draw ll also increase cutoff instead of the drop. This is absolutely illogical and there is fault in the latter part of your calculations. Pls check it again and hopefully you can give us a much better estimate.

 

[Punitsingh]

U r basically forecasting the same cutoff for 21st Aug draw. Unless there are more than 1000+ OINP nominations issued, I feel it is unlikely that cutoff will remain that high. Instead, I do think that there will be lesser PNP applicants on 21st draw and therefore, the drop in cutoff could be more.

Even wid 1000 candidates of 600+ cutoff will be 460 +/-1 for 21st Aug
But for 28th Aug, cutoff should be in higher 460s

 

[eusouocristian]

Next draw can happen on 21st or 28th both, below are the supporting points

In favour of 21st Aug:
1. In 12th Aug draw, data shown up to 2nd Aug, means there was a plan to conduct draw on 7th Aug and then on 21st Aug, but 7th Aug draw got delayed

2. Cic could have easily conducted draw on 28th by conducting last draw on 14th, why was there a need to have draw on Monday

3. If we consider last draw as a delayed draw of 7th Aug , then next is on 21st

4. If we consider last draw as an advanced draw of 14th Aug then it is a 3 week gap likely to be followed by b2b draw

5. There are below events approaching:
FST draw in Sep
Elections in Oct

If cic has a margin for a 3 week gap then it would be better to save it for above mentioned 2 events rather than wasting it in Aug

In favour of 28th Aug:
1. Cic has an habit to create a gap after 4-5 regular draws,
Apart from this habit, Don’t see any logic, this would be an unnecessary gap without achieving FST or handling election busy schedule

Two queries:
Is that sure we are going to have a FST draw in September?
How exactly the Elections could affect the pool?

 

[EnthuChap]

Even wid 1000 candidates of 600+ cutoff will be 460 +/-1 for 21st Aug
But for 28th Aug, cutoff should be in higher 460s

Great. As @NikSharma01 also mentioned previously that 21 Aug won't witness large inflow of 600+ scores, so all those spots will be available for 450+ candidates and then the real weight of 3600 will come to the fore.

Also, sort of a conspiracy theory here, CIC and PNP working in tandem are keeping the scores artificially high by enforcing gaps. They decided to withhold the draw so the larger PNP candidates could get the ITAs. Maybe, the nominations were on the way.

 

[Punitsingh]

Two queries:
Is that sure we are going to have a FST draw in September?
How exactly the Elections could affect the pool?

No firm idea, this is absolutely the business of cic

 

[chirkut]

Another reason is also the demand for tech in Toronto. So they want more tech people coming in ..

 

[Dheana90]

U r basically forecasting the same cutoff for 21st Aug draw. Unless there are more than 1000+ OINP nominations issued, I feel it is unlikely that cutoff will remain that high. Instead, I do think that there will be lesser PNP applicants on 21st draw and therefore, the drop in cutoff could be more.

According to your calculations, the cutoff ll always stay at 466 or higher for the rest of the year and a simple biweekly draw ll also increase cutoff instead of the drop. This is absolutely illogical and there is fault in the latter part of your calculations. Pls check it again and hopefully you can give us a much better estimate.

Haha..

Did u guys actually read the whole calculation or just skipped and find the cut off score on the bottom of my post?

If you guys read the whole calculation, you guys should understand why I estimated that the cut off score will stay high.

Anyway, this is my personal estimation. I can be wrong and right. It's only estimation.

I'm not trying to dissapoint anyone here. I just do the calculation based on the CRS distribution published. I do not just simply made up the number.

If you see the calculation and "note" properly. It is estimated that after Monday draw. There were 7001 candidates left in the pool in the score range of 451-600. For which, 3,990 are those left from 24th July draw eho have score 451-459 and as the cut off was 466, it means the remaining 3,011 profiles were those having 466-600.

And "NO", my calculation is for 21st Aug only @Midnight Blessing, every draw have different published CRS distribution so my estimation calculation will be different as well.

That's find if you guys are not happy with my calculation. You guys can show us your calculation too. The more input, the better.

 

[Kenneth89]

If draw happens in the 21st the CRS score will drop to 460+-1..

 

[Dheana90]

U r basically forecasting the same cutoff for 21st Aug draw. Unless there are more than 1000+ OINP nominations issued, I feel it is unlikely that cutoff will remain that high. Instead, I do think that there will be lesser PNP applicants on 21st draw and therefore, the drop in cutoff could be more.

No need of 1000 number of PNP applicants in order for score to stay high.

If you see my calculation properly, the estimations of PNP applicants is only 423. But because there will be approximately 3,011 of 466-600 applicants left from 12th Aug draw and around 1,000 more added from 12th -21st Aug, that's why cut off score will stay in the range of 465-466 with the current 3,600 ITA issued. Even 400more ITAs won't make much different in cut off score if the density of 465+ is still high.