Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw

[NikSharma01]

As the draw didn't take place yesterday. I will calculate the estimation of CRS score distribution in pool until next Wednesday.

So, by 14th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 =609 (29x21days)
451-600 =8,148(3,990+4158(198x21days))
441-450 = 8,299(7,711 + 588(28x21days))

With 3,600 ITA the cut off score will approximately 459-460
3,600 minus:
609(601-1200)
2500(of 4158 may have score 600-461)
491(of 558 from 4158 (may have 460 score)


with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 458-459.
3,900 minus:
609(601-1200)
2500(from 4158 maybe have score 600-461)
558(of 558 from 4158 may have score 460)
233(of 550 from 24th July draw with 459score)

Note: there might be more of OINP PNP candidates who will receive nomination before the next week's draw (score 1,000+). Therefore, the cut off score will be much higher as well.

Very good calculations dear as always! However, talking about the predictions, I highly doubt that the cut-off will be 459-460 considering the 3 weeks long gap. I wish I could be wrong, but unfortunately this another delay of odd weeks in the draws will shoot the cut-off to 464+ with 3600 ITAs.

The primary reason is the growing density of 460+ applicants, which is being accumulated consistently every other day! Also the pending nominations of May 2019, being approved, may have another effect, albeit slight.! CIC is really playing around with us!!

 

[EnthuChap]

Very good calculations dear as always! However, talking about the predictions, I highly doubt that the cut-off will be 459-460 considering the 3 weeks long gap. I wish I could be wrong, but unfortunately this another delay of odd weeks in the draws will shoot the cut-off to 464+ with 3600 ITAs.

The primary reason is the growing density of 460+ applicants, which is being accumulated consistently every other day! Also the pending nominations of May 2019, being approved, may have another effect, albeit slight.! CIC is really playing around with us!!

I concur and even if we have to take a rough estimate of a CRS Rise historically, 1 week = 5 CRS points if a draw is skipped. I think it will be 464-465, but I will be happy to be wrong and witness an increase in draw size to 3900.

 

[Dheana90]

Very good calculations dear as always! However, talking about the predictions, I highly doubt that the cut-off will be 459-460 considering the 3 weeks long gap. I wish I could be wrong, but unfortunately this another delay of odd weeks in the draws will shoot the cut-off to 464+ with 3600 ITAs.

The primary reason is the growing density of 460+ applicants, which is being accumulated consistently every other day! Also the pending nominations of May 2019, being approved, may have another effect, albeit slight.! CIC is really playing around with us!!

Let's just hope the accumulation of 461+ scorer will be much less,dear...Don't wanna imagine another disaster in cut off score.

 

[Sasalban]

Guys who thinks the score will be 465+ on next draw..... Please chill out.

If a draw is going to happen on 14th August
based on statics and on the influx of applicants during last months we will have these possibilities.

3600 ITA's issued
CRS Score 462-463 (70%-30%)

3900 ITA's issued
CRS Score 461-462(30%-70%)

Now in my opinion the real issue might be if the draw is postponed for the 21st August. This would be really a hope killer for most of us.

 

[Teenz]

I appeared for computer DELIVERED IDP IELTS general test on 30/07/2019, the results of which were online on 02/08/2019. Its been 10 days, but my result was not declared. When I called IELTS toll free number, I came to know that my result is withheld for additional quality purpose. I didnt get any email regarding this matter. I tried messaging and calling IELTS numerous time, but they are not providing me any timeline when to expect my result.

Does anyone know why is this happening to me and when can I expect my result?
Please help!

 

[vgm10689]

I concur and even if we have to take a rough estimate of a CRS Rise historically, 1 week = 5 CRS points if a draw is skipped. I think it will be 464-465, but I will be happy to be wrong and witness an increase in draw size to 3900.

The chances of having a 3900 draw size is very high for the rest of the year. How?

ITAs issued-

Target for 2019: 81400

Current for 2019: 49000

Actual for 2019: 89000+?

Target for 2018: 74900

Actual for 2018: 89800

That leaves IRCC with 32,400 ITAs to be issued to meet 2019 target, however historically they have always issued more ITAs than previous years. Even if they only want to issue 88000 which is 1000 under last year, there would be 39000 ITAs left to issue for this year.

Now, we have approximately 10 draws left this year since 20 weeks left.

If IRCC were to meet just the target then they would just do 3300 draw sizes for the rest of the year
If they were to meet the actuals of 2018 then they would have to issue 3900 draw size rest of the year without missing any draws like Aug7 and May gap.
To exceed, they could increase the draw size to new levels like 4000+

 

[Naxwell]

Please what are the chances of 454 crs score before December 2019 if things go the way they are going right now? Hoping they dont miss any biweekly draws again

 

[Midnight Blessing]

Guys who thinks the score will be 465+ on next draw..... Please chill out.

If a draw is going to happen on 14th August
based on statics and on the influx of applicants during last months we will have these possibilities.

3600 ITA's issued
CRS Score 462-463 (70%-30%)

3900 ITA's issued
CRS Score 461-462(30%-70%)

Now in my opinion the real issue might be if the draw is postponed for the 21st August. This would be really a hope killer for most of us.

What is the logic behind your estimation? Is it just a wild wish?

 

[journey21]

CRS should be around 466 to 468

 

[Sudeshna14]

Hi Guys,
I am a new member to this group. My current score is 460. Any chance of getting ITA on 14th Aug?

Also, can anyone let me know if the age score changes with 6 months +/- calculation?
For example, my current age is 29 years (May born), thus if my profile doesn't get locked by November this year; does that mean they will consider 29 years 6 months as 30 years from December onwards?
Thanks in advance!

 

[Punitsingh]

Hi Guys,
I am a new member to this group. My current score is 460. Any chance of getting ITA on 14th Aug?

Also, can anyone let me know if the age score changes with 6 months +/- calculation?
For example, my current age is 29 years (May born), thus if my profile doesn't get locked by November this year; does that mean they will consider 29 years 6 months as 30 years from December onwards?
Thanks in advance!

No chance on 14th aug
29 years + 364 days is counted as 29years

 

[deed]

may I ask about location of your education? for both Bcome and MBA?

Lahore Pakistan

 

[Sudeshna14]

No chance on 14th aug
29 years + 364 days is counted as 29years

Thanks!

I hope the cut-off reduces by month end at least.

 

[ripul]

I appeared for computer DELIVERED IDP IELTS general test on 30/07/2019, the results of which were online on 02/08/2019. Its been 10 days, but my result was not declared. When I called IELTS toll free number, I came to know that my result is withheld for additional quality purpose. I didnt get any email regarding this matter. I tried messaging and calling IELTS numerous time, but they are not providing me any timeline when to expect my result.

Does anyone know why is this happening to me and when can I expect my result?
Please help!

It happens. For me, I got the result in 20 days. So just wait.

 

[Teenz]

It happens. For me, I got the result in 20 days. So just wait.

Was it 20 days after the test date? Is it due to major difference of bands between 2 modules? Can you please tell me your ielts scores for reference?