Ray of Hope - 120th Draw

[13nitinsharma]

Guys, I have checked on several websites that NOCs for IT professionals are in high demand for ONIP PNP. Is it true?
But in last ONIP near 31st May, I guess there was no noc of IT professionals

Skilled Workers include IT and Non-IT professionals both the categories. Not sure, why people are confused with unrealistic fact that only IT jobs are in demand in Canada currently.

Please understand every state has their own way of analyzing the current job market and requirements. Then only, they come up with PNP program to fulfill the shortage of skilled workers.

 

[13nitinsharma]

So my first draw did not have anything fruitful for me. Fingers crossed for next one, hopefully, as some expert analysts here have predicted score between 460-462, I do really have a ray of hope!

You’ll be through in the next round of draw (June 26)

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

Skilled Workers include IT and Non-IT professionals both the categories. Not sure, why people are confused with unrealistic fact that only IT jobs are in demand in Canada currently.

Please under every state has their own way of analyzing the current job market and requirements. Then only, they come up with PNP program to fulfill the shortage of skilled workers.

Realistically speaking, this 'Job in Demand' thing is absurd to calculate a person's job prospects once he lands.
Now that does give you an idea about straight off the bat employability, but to say that it constitutes the entire picture is downright foolish.

As for IT guys, sure that is a hot segment. But you ever saw long haul drivers? That has been continuing since 1980's and I bet there hasn't been a single day since the advent of trucks on Canadian roads that a Punjabi guy has landed in Canada searching for a truck and hasn't found one!

The point is, that if you are determined nuff, no matter the saturation of the market, you ll land a job.

 

[skg1988]

Estimation for 26th June CRS score distribution based on previous CRS datas:
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 24, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 729
451-600 4,624
441-450 5,872

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 10, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 317
451-600 1,668
441-450 5,360

Means in 14 days from May 10th to May 24th there were about:

601-1,200: (729-317= 412/14days = 29profile/day

451-600: (4624-1668=2957/14days = 211profile/day)

441-450: (5872-5360 = 510/14days = 36profile/day

So, by 29th May, the distribution will be approximately:

600-1200: 729 + 145 (29profile x 5days) = 874

451-600: 4,624 + 1055(211profilex5days ) = 5679

441-450: 5872 + 180(36profilex5day) =6052

Number of nvitation issued on 29th May is 3350. So, the 874profile with 600+points would have all received ITA. (3350-874 =2476)

Remaining 2476 will be taken from 451-600point range. So 5679-2476= 3203.

Therefore, after the invitation round on 29th May,the score distribution would be:

600+ = 0
451-600 =3203
441-450=6052

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 7, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646
441-450 6,315

It means, in 9 days from 29th May to 7th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (288/9)
451-600 =271profile/day(5,646-3203 = 2443/9)
441-450 =29profile/day (6,315-6052=263/9)

By 12th June, the score distribution would be:
601-1,200 =448 (288 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7001 (5,646 + 1355(271x5))
441-450 = 6460 (6,315 + 145(29x5))

After the 12th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution should be:

601-1,200 = 0 (3350-448=2902)
451-600 = 4,099 (7001 - 2902)
441-450 =6460

By 26th June, the scores will be:

601-1,200 = 448 (32 x14days)
451-600 = 7893 (4099 +(271x14=3794))
441-450 = 6866 (6460+ (29x17=406))

I think cutoff score will still be above 460 for 26th June draw.

Hey buddy, excellent work. But, your assumption that 271/day (451-600) for the next 14 days might be wrong. I have seen as a month starts, from feb onwards, number of 450+ candidates increses and this might be due to the increase in the points for work experience of inpand applicants. So for the next 14 days, 451-600 candidates would low, may be 220-240.

 

[skg1988]

No. They cannot achieve their target with 3350 ITA's. The high target for this year is 86000 and low is 76000. They have issued only 38450 as of now, that's almost 50% of the low target.
Now in a perfectly closed system, that would be neck to neck, however since there is always wastage of ITA's (around 12-13% fail to convert into PR's), they won't be able to meet their target at this speed.

Also, it is quite unlikely that CIC ll actually be aiming at the low target, since they have previously shown an appetite for the high one.

Worst case, they 'd aim at the median which is 81400. Add to that the excess number of ITA's that ll be issued to compensate for ITA's lost and you are looking at a figure close to 90000.
A b2b draw or a raise in ITA's is inevitable. The real question is 'When'.

Absolutely, and also the 600+ candidates (more than 12%) come under pnps.

 

[13nitinsharma]

Realistically speaking, this 'Job in Demand' thing is absurd to calculate a person's job prospects once he lands.
Now that does give you an idea about straight off the bat employability, but to say that it constitutes the entire picture is downright foolish.

As for IT guys, sure that is a hot segment. But you ever saw long haul drivers? That has been continuing since 1980's and I bet there hasn't been a single day since the advent of trucks on Canadian roads that a Punjabi guy has landed in Canada searching for a truck and hasn't found one!

The point is, that if you are determined nuff, no matter the saturation of the market, you ll land a job.

This rule applies to all individuals in any part of this world.

If you're determined to work as per your skill set, then definitely you'll end up with a good job in your hand. Punjabi's who opt to drive trucks is altogether different topic. I'm talking about skilled professionals here and that's why we've EE system in place.

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

This rule applies to all individuals in any part of this world.

If you're determined to work as per your skill set, then definitely you'll end up with a good job in your hand. Punjabi's who opt to drive trucks is altogether different topic. I'm talking about skilled professionals here and that's why we've EE system in place.

But well, truck driving sure is tempting lol

And I wasn't arguing

Just reasserting your point that no matter the saturation of the market, determination, luck and skill create their own demand.

 

[Nsidhu]

Question senior folks.. wes provides pdf version of ECA and they send the original copy by mail as well. Question is can I use the pdf they provided ? For my ECA I checked it was same as paper mail of course .. however, for my spouse I called to ask for paper copy and they also told me I CAN’T use the pdf version ??? Seriously??

 

[13nitinsharma]

Question senior folks.. wes provides pdf version of ECA and they send the original copy by mail as well. Question is can I use the pdf they provided ? For my ECA I checked it was same as paper mail of course .. however, for my spouse I called to ask for paper copy and they also told me I CAN’T use the pdf version ??? Seriously??

Both ways its fine.

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

Question senior folks.. wes provides pdf version of ECA and they send the original copy by mail as well. Question is can I use the pdf they provided ? For my ECA I checked it was same as paper mail of course .. however, for my spouse I called to ask for paper copy and they also told me I CAN’T use the pdf version ??? Seriously??

You can use the pdf version since both the hard copy and the electronic copy sent by them have no difference whatsoever. They are the same thing.

In fact, a couple months ago, I, having misplaced my WES report, panicked and called the WES guys to confirm whether i can use the electronic copy for any IRCC purposes. They replied in affirmative.

 

[bhargava.sg]

Guys, I have a question on work experience.

Will IRCC consider the exact date of joining and leaving to calculate work experience or just the month?

Right now, I have 2 years and 11 months of work experience. Can I create a profile saying I have 3 years experience and get into next draw and by the time I submit the documentation, I will have 3 years of experience?

Or, should I wait for 1 more month and then create the profile so that I have 3 years experience on the day of creating my profile?

My score is coming down to 459 without 3 years experience and it is 481 when I add it.

 

[Nsidhu]

You can use the pdf version since both the hard copy and the electronic copy sent by them have no difference whatsoever. They are the same thing.

In fact, a couple months ago, I, having misplaced my WES report, panicked and called the WES guys to confirm whether i can use the electronic copy for any IRCC purposes. They replied in affirmative.

Both ways its fine.

oh thank you. then its fine

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

Guy, I have a question on work experience.

Will IRCC consider the exact date of joining and leaving to calculate work experience or just the month?

Right now, I have 2 years and 11 months of work experience. Can I create a profile saying I have 3 years experience and get into next draw and by the time I submit the documentation, I will have 3 years of experience?

Or, should I wait for 1 more month and then create the profile so that I have 3 years experience on the day of creating my profile?

My score is coming down to 459 without 3 years experience and it is 481 when I add it.

EE calculates the duration of experience automatically. It ll take into account your date of joining and count the period from then. In order to construe that as 3 years as of now, you ll have to push back your date of joining by a month.
So, s'pose you do that and get an ITA before you complete your 3 years of experience. What then?
Your experience will be invalidated by the VO and you ll be up for misrepresentation and being banned for 5 years!

Takeaway - Losing a month > Losing 5 years.

Rest, up to you. Some people like the daredevil approach to life. Do you?

 

[imusi]

Guy, I have a question on work experience.

Will IRCC consider the exact date of joining and leaving to calculate work experience or just the month?

Right now, I have 2 years and 11 months of work experience. Can I create a profile saying I have 3 years experience and get into next draw and by the time I submit the documentation, I will have 3 years of experience?

Or, should I wait for 1 more month and then create the profile so that I have 3 years experience on the day of creating my profile?

My score is coming down to 459 without 3 years experience and it is 481 when I add it.

You should create your EE profile right now. When inputting your work history you will be asked to provide specific year and month of which you started to work for each work experience. (But of course you should provide the actual year and month! EE will do the calculation automatically.)

 

[bhargava.sg]

Thanks, @Not_Your_Donkey_Kong , @imusi for your inputs. I will create my profile and my work experience will increase automatically next month and my score will increase. It is okay.

@Not_Your_Donkey_Kong, I was thinking we have to select how many years of work experience I have from a drop-down menu hence, my question. I haven't checked the website yet as I am waiting for WES to complete, so did not know how the website will get my work experience.