Ray of Hope - 120th Draw

[navjotbindra]

Any chances for 461 in next two draws?

Very good chance.. If not on 26th June (which is also very much possible), you will surely get there on 10th July.

 

[night1234]

I'll say 460-462 for the next draw.
Usually degrees are awarded in September/ October, ECA ~ 4-6 months, Pool ~ 2-3 months.
Takes us to decrease in intake of number of high scoring candidates by this time of the year.
At 3350 invitations, CRS cutoff will remain high, not expected to come down to <450 any time soon.
If the numbers increase to 3900-4200, we can see 440 by the end of 2019.

Students completing studies in Canada don't need WES evaluation and will get head start plus bonus points.
By August is the cutoff remains above 455. It will remain above that through out the end of year.

 

[navjotbindra]

Why??Any specific reason??

Back to back draws make very little sense right now. They can easily meet their target by giving 3350 invitations every 2 weeks for the rest of the year (they will in fact reach the target even if they miss a week in between)

 

[nyiable]

Hi there, I’m new to this forum. Is there any hope for my 451? T.T

The latest 2 draws almost freak me out.

 

[sarak1812]

Few questions

1.
How did you get this? "now there are 5934 - 3350 = 2580 in the pool for 451-600"

5934 is the number of profiles on June 7, Did you make an assumption that there were no profiles created from June 7 to today?

Hi, 2580 till 7th June and I am assuming 260 per day from 8th June to 22 June which is 14 days
which is 260 X 14 = 3640
Now please note 260 per day is predicted here can be maximum 300 also
which is why quite possible the next draw to be 464 or worst case 465.

Also, I said earlier we dont know how many are 455+,460+, 450+ or people between 460-465

2.
Can you explain this? "On 29th May there were 2003 people left"
Edit : Did you do 5353 (Score from May 24) - 3350?

yes if 3350 people got ITA then it is very clear that those people are removed leaving 2003 in the pool still there on 29th May

Clubbing together :
we get (2580 + 3640) = 6220 in the pool by 22nd June

3640 is varying if 300 per day ...

This is my prediction please feel free to comment or advise

 

[Punitsingh]

So my prediction was correct for 465.

Congratulations to all who made it

@SithLord , as your prediction was most accurate in this forum, cud you suggest that are there any chances for 459 candidate? Assuming fortnightly draws of 3350 ITA
Or should I focus on increasing ielts

 

[Angel1113]

With folks at 460's worried about their chances, my 449 look so bleak!

Hoping and praying for a back to back draw.

Hey! Try not to worry too much about it. I know easier said than done. Trust me I feel your pain. Waiting is brutal.

Even though with current cut off score 449 seems very low to recieve ITA but it is not impossible to get an ITA with 449. I feel like score will drop down to this in November/ December because one month of gap in draw resulted in this high score but gradually it will come down.

In mean time work hard to improve your score and don't let negativity bring you down. I wish you all the best.

 

[ajangbar001]

1.
How did you get this? "now there are 5934 - 3350 = 2580 in the pool for 451-600"

5934 is the number of profiles on June 7, Did you make an assumption that there were no profiles created from June 7 to today?

Hi, 2580 till 7th June and I am assuming 260 per day from 8th June to 22 June which is 14 days
which is 260 X 14 = 3640
Now please note 260 per day is predicted here can be maximum 300 also
which is why quite possible the next draw to be 464 or worst case 465.

Also, I said earlier we dont know how many are 455+,460+, 450+ or people between 460-465

2.
Can you explain this? "On 29th May there were 2003 people left"
Edit : Did you do 5353 (Score from May 24) - 3350?

yes if 3350 people got ITA then it is very clear that those people are removed leaving 2003 in the pool still there on 29th May

Clubbing together :
we get (2580 + 3640) = 6220 in the pool by 22nd June

3640 is varying if 300 per day ...

This is my prediction please feel free to comment or advise

On May 24th

601-1,200 729
451-600 4,624

On June 7th

601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646

Does this mean that more people around 451-465 were added to the pool than 465+? If the distribution was the same then the cut-off should've been higher than 465? Right?

Can we expect the same when we move towards a 26th June draw?

 

[indpnv]

yes if 3350 people got ITA then it is very clear that those people are removed leaving 2003 in the pool still there on 29th May

2003 remaining on 29th May would be incorrect right? Because 5353 is from May 24th and you need to factor in the profiles created from 24th May to 29th May.

 

[Div_newbie]

Hey! Try not to worry too much about it. I know easier said than done. Trust me I feel your pain. Waiting is brutal.

Even though with current cut off score 449 seems very low to recieve ITA but it is not impossible to get an ITA with 449. I feel like score will drop down to this in November/ December because one month of gap in draw resulted in this high score but gradually it will come down.

In mean time work hard to improve your score and don't let negativity bring you down. I wish you all the best.

Thank you for the kind words!

 

[sarak1812]

On May 24th

601-1,200 729
451-600 4,624

On June 7th

601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646

Does this mean that more people around 451-465 were added to the pool than 465+? If the distribution was the same then the cut-off should've been higher than 465? Right?

Can we expect the same when we move towards a 26th June draw?

not sure but extreme case better to assume more people between 460-465 being added and a few of them added with 465+

 

[13nitinsharma]

Chances of 456 in July 10th draw??? Anybody??

Draw on July 24th, you'll get it for sure.

 

[EnthuChap]

m here man.. I probably will be here when you are gone.. @441

I'll stick around. Worry not mate.

 

[navinball]

looks like my prediction came true.
ill be crunching the numbers and come up with a prediction for the next draw shortly. hang tight.....

 

[SG1507]

Stats is of 7th June, between 7th June and 12th June(today), 230 applicants per day entered.

So 5646 + 288 + (230 X 5) = 7084
This draw will minus 3350
7084 - 3350 = 3734 applicants above 450 are still dre.

I have a question- when we are assuming applicants being added everyday, the CRS distribution table is as of June 7th, i.e. after the tie breaker day, but there are people above the cut-off who applied after June 7th who will receive ITAs in this draw, they should not be included in the applicants in pool as of today, right? I mean if we don't know the number of people who entered the pool above 465 after June 7th, we would not have a clear estimate of people(451 plus) being there in the pool as on June 12th.
Sorry I'm not really familiar with the calculations, just confused about this.