Ray of Hope - 118th Draw

[mayjuly]

News just in: Prince Edward Island has issued 104 PNP invites.

In addition to the draw 5 days ago? https://www.cicnews.com/2019/05/prince-edward-island-issues-104-invitations-to-immigration-candidates-in-may-16-draw-0512298.html#gs.db7nfv

 

[Agarwalparesh26]

Their target of 81000 is for people to be immigrated, not for the ITAs to be issued. Obviously, the number of ITAs will be much more than the target they've set.

Hi Nik,

How do they know when to increase ITAs ? As you have mentioned 81000 is expected immigrants not ITAs. But, as I understand to know exactly how many ITAs will become actual immigrant landing in Canada is tedious and the process itself takes more than 6 months after ITA for a person to land.

So, how IRCC decide on increasing the ITA ?

 

[LKRYA]

In addition to the draw 5 days ago? https://www.cicnews.com/2019/05/prince-edward-island-issues-104-invitations-to-immigration-candidates-in-may-16-draw-0512298.html#gs.db7nfv

No I refer to the same. It seems news came so late to me. Sorry peeps

 

[indpnv]

Let me know if anyone here from India got a POF letter from ICICI bank.

 

[royalking]

hi friends one doubt ...

i am currently working assistant professor for last 1 year may 2018 -current, noc 4021
previous to that i was doing my PHD research full time research scholar full paid by UGC 2013-2018 ( no pay slips but my grant was credited directly to my bank account, i do have job reference letter from my director clealy mentioning my fellowships , jobs and responsiblities) and completed my phd
previous to that i was working as assistant professor from 2006-2011

i have used NOC 4012 in EE (Research assistant) because its 4 years and 11 months exact
based on following quote
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/eligibility/federal-skilled-workers.html

• paid work (This means you must have been paid wages or earned commission. Volunteer work or unpaid internships don’t count.) as mine is full time paid internships , kindly advice.... or should i use 4021

 

[simranj72]

Friends please advise, i will lose 5 points in July 22, right now i am at 453, what are the chances of getting ITA before 22nd july 2019.

There are high chances that you will get an ITA before July 22 since your score is pretty good.

 

[NikSharma01]

I guess no validation would require if CIC levies a registration fee of 100$ to create an Express entry profile. Genuine people would not mind paying it and obvioulsy those fake idiots would not spen 100$ to create a fake profile.

Completely valid point!

CIC seriously needs to impose a fee restriction for the creation of EE-Profiles, in order to mitigate the adverse effects of fake profiles on the system.

Hi Nik,

How do they know when to increase ITAs ? As you have mentioned 81000 is expected immigrants not ITAs. But, as I understand to know exactly how many ITAs will become actual immigrant landing in Canada is tedious and the process itself takes more than 6 months after ITA for a person to land.

So, how IRCC decide on increasing the ITA ?

There isn't any source revealing the actual number of ITAs to be issued in 2019. However, I've come across several articles, in which experts have explicitly claimed that the increasing trend of the ITAs from the previous years is highly anticipated to be continued.

Here is one example by the Canada's one of the renowned immigration firm "Campbell Immigration Law Firm":

“This aggregate figure is higher by 6,750 when compared with the number of invites issued at this same point in 2018,” points out David Cohen, senior partner at the immigration law firm of Campbell Cohen.
During 2018, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), issued 89,800 invitations to apply (ITA) to Express Entry candidates, it was the highest to be issued in a single year, adds Cohen. To add, this figure was nearly 5% higher than the 86,023 invites that were issued in 2017. Immigration attorneys expect the rising trend to continue.

 

[NikSharma01]

Hi Nik,

How do they know when to increase ITAs ? As you have mentioned 81000 is expected immigrants not ITAs. But, as I understand to know exactly how many ITAs will become actual immigrant landing in Canada is tedious and the process itself takes more than 6 months after ITA for a person to land.

So, how IRCC decide on increasing the ITA ?

Well talking about the IRCC's tactics, as we know they have a clear picture of the current database of applications into the pool.

So, they would be having an exact record of how many applications of 2019 have been processed already!

During the second half/by the end of 2019, they probably would make an assessment regarding the Applications under processing as well as the Declined/rejected rate of ITAs.

After knowing the actual figures, they will get to know how many ITAs need to be increased to meet the traget of immigrating 81000 people in 2019?

These are my assumptions!

 

[CNP]

Let me know if anyone here from India got a POF letter from ICICI bank.

I submitted letter from ICICI bank as POF.

 

[indpnv]

I submitted letter from ICICI bank as POF.

DMed

 

[Agarwalparesh26]

Well talking about the IRCC's tactics, as we know they have a clear picture of the current database of applications into the pool.

So, they would be having an exact record of how many applications of 2019 have been processed already!

During the second half/by the end of 2019, they probably would make an assessment regarding the Applications under processing as well as the Declined/rejected rate of ITAs.

After knowing the actual figures, they will get to know how many ITAs need to be increased to meet the traget of immigrating 81000 people in 2019?

These are my assumptions!

Thanks Nik

 

[_Harry_]

I'm feeling hopeful too; an increase in draw size or frequency is inevitable:

• Target for 2018: 74900
• Invites sent in 2018: 89600
• % over target: 19.62%

• Target for 2019: 81400
• Predicted invites sent in 2019: 19.62% x 81400 = 97375
• Invites already sent in 2019: 31750
• Invites remaining to send in 2019: 65625

Assuming one more draw in May and two draws per month until the end of the year, let's say we have at least 15 draws remaining. The average draw size in this case needs to be 4375 for CIC to meet its target.

The 19.62% additional ITA were sent because of the number of rejection. We are assuming the same rejection percentage for this year which can or can not be true. Furthermore, here the profiles getting PNP are missed. Those folks will have CRS of 1000 or more and will be part of the same pool count. I think draw size of 4000 seems like more realistic figure here.

 

[Shishir Chandra Kumar]

Is it true? In second IELTS, I wrote 250 in Essay 1 and 400 in Essay 2... That's why I got only 7.

20 words extra is ok, without any harm. That's what i had followed.

 

[NikSharma01]

The 19.62% additional ITA were sent because of the number of rejection. We are assuming the same rejection percentage for this year which can or can not be true. Furthermore, here the profiles getting PNP are missed. Those folks will have CRS of 1000 or more and will be part of the same pool count. I think draw size of 4000 seems like more realistic figure here.

Regardless of this, rate of fake profiles has also surged gradually! Due to which the ITAs are being wasted, as such profiles are unable to prove their eligibilty, so prone to the rejection!

Yes, rejection rate has considerably declined because the folks have become more aware as they were back in 2017-2018. Taking everything into consideration, it can be said that the ITA number will forever be higher than the set target. Probably, in the range of 90000-95000.

The bottomline is that the declined/wasted ITAs will be reused during the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2019.

 

[Shishir Chandra Kumar]

I guess no validation would require if CIC levies a registration fee of 100$ to create an Express entry profile. Genuine people would not mind paying it and obvioulsy those fake idiots would not spen 100$ to create a fake profile.

That's a damn good technique.