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Ray of Hope - 118th Draw

LKRYA

Hero Member
Mar 8, 2018
263
241
PREDICTION FOR NEXT DRAW I.E., ON MAY 22, 2019

DATA FACTS:
  • 451 & above Applicants on May 10 – Total 1,985 (317+1,668)
  • Around 145 Applicants (451+) addition on daily basis by looking the last draws trends
  • Expected new additions of 451+ Applicants from May 10 to May 22 = 145*12 = 1,740
  • 451 & above Applicants on May 22 (Projected) – Total 3,735 (1,985+1,750)
PREDICTION:
3350: Cut off will be 454 +/- 1
3500: Cut off will be 452 +/- 1
3900: Cut off will be 450 / 449
Wow this looks very optimistic
 

13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,568
3,163
Canada
(Updated till 11:30 AM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:
  • 460+ (Total 6) - | Ali1122: 479 | indpnv: 473 | KayPi: 468 | ashwin863: 462 | ajangbar001: 461 | meet0708: 461
  • 455-460 (Total 7) – ryeCatcher: 460 | #EEC: 457 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Nsidhu: 455
  • 450-454 (Total 22) - Folaroyal: 453 | Suhasrs: 452 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | 13nitinsharma: 450 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | DreamITA: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450
  • 445-449 (Total 50) - Shaanoh: 449 | Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | Tivativalu: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | : 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | Ranjitrip: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | LKRYA: 447 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | SASH8288: 446 | Sreedev83: 446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | Yiss: 445 | IeltsDream2019: 445
  • 441-444 (Total 32) - NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | ravinder_singh:443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Eddiesol: 433 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441
  • 435-440 (Total 14) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 5) - Life79: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421
Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.
 
Last edited:

sriguru12

Star Member
Jul 8, 2017
74
76
The only way this can be curbed is by putting in validation at the time of profile submission / update.

With everything digital these days, why it's so difficult to validate whether or not an IELTS score is valid.
I guess no validation would require if CIC levies a registration fee of 100$ to create an Express entry profile. Genuine people would not mind paying it and obvioulsy those fake idiots would not spen 100$ to create a fake profile.
 

13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,568
3,163
Canada
Hi All,
I got the below data from one website

Express Entry quick facts, from January 1, 2015 to May 15, 2019
  • Launch date: January 1, 2015
  • First draw from the pool: January 31, 2015
  • Most recent draw from the pool: May 1, 2019
  • Minimum CRS points required for selection in the Federal Skilled Trades Class (FSTC): 199 (May 26, 2017)
  • Minimum CRS points required for selection in the Federal Skilled Worker Class (FSWC): 413 (May 31, 2017)
  • Minimum CRS points required for selection in the Canadian Experience Class (CEC): 413 (May 31, 2017)
  • Largest number of invitations to apply issued in any one draw: 3,923 (April 12, 2017)
  • Fewest invitations to apply issued in any one draw: 143 (May 26, 2017. Note: This draw invited candidates with a provincial nomination only.)
  • Largest decrease in CRS points required between two consecutive draws: 273 (from May 22, 2015 to June 12, 2015 draws)
  • Smallest decrease in CRS points required between two consecutive draws: 0 (on three occasions)
  • Longest gap between dates of two consecutive draws: 35 days (from April 17, 2015 to May 22, 2015 draws)
  • Shortest gap between dates of two consecutive draws: 5 days (from May 26 to May 31, 2017)
  • Total number of ITAs issued in 2015: 31,063
  • Total number of ITAs issued in 2016: 33,782
  • Total number of ITAs issued in 2017: 86,023
  • Total number of ITAs issued in 2018: 89,800
  • Total number of ITAs issued in 2019 (to date): 31,750
  • Total number of ITAs issued since system was launched: 272,418
As per the above data in 2018, 89800 ITA's were issued even though they had plan to issue around 76000.

As per my understanding for this year target is around 81000. If they keep the last year's trend then we should expect atleast 93000 ITAs ( it can increase also)
this year.

So, I guess they will have to increase number of ITA's because 15 * 3350 = 50250 (to be issued in 2019)+ 31750 (already issued Itas) = 82000 ITAs are less by atleast 10000.

If they don't give more that 81000 ITAs which is their current year's target then nobody can help...

Hope they continue last years trend..


Please correct me if I have missed something
Thanks for sharing the above historic data, this is helpful!

One of the major thing that we can notice here is - CIC begins the major changes (be it consecutive draws, changes to ITA's, minimum CRS or others) in the month of May only. The current draw (May 15th) has happened the same way like they did FST draw on May 26, 2017. Then, in the following week, a regular draw was conducted on May 31, 2017.

So, it's quite evident that the remaining two Wednesday are really crucial in terms of increased ITA's or back to back draws.

Something is definitely good going to happen in this month. Let's wait & watch!
 

mayjuly

Star Member
Apr 11, 2019
65
33
I'm feeling hopeful too; an increase in draw size or frequency is inevitable:

  • Target for 2018: 74900
  • Invites sent in 2018: 89600
  • % over target: 19.62%
  • Target for 2019: 81400
  • Predicted invites sent in 2019: 19.62% x 81400 = 97375
  • Invites already sent in 2019: 31750
  • Invites remaining to send in 2019: 65625

Assuming one more draw in May and two draws per month until the end of the year, let's say we have at least 15 draws remaining. The average draw size in this case needs to be 4375 for CIC to meet its target.
 

LKRYA

Hero Member
Mar 8, 2018
263
241
(Updated till 11:30 AM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:
  • 460+ (Total 6) - | Ali1122: 479 | indpnv: 473 | KayPi: 468 | ashwin863: 462 | ajangbar001: 461 | meet0708: 461
  • 455-460 (Total 7) – ryeCatcher: 460 | #EEC: 457 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Nsidhu: 455
  • 450-454 (Total 22) - Folaroyal: 453 | Suhasrs: 452 | matteis:452 | cdddelhi: 451 | 13nitinsharma: 450 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | DreamITA: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450
  • 445-449 (Total 48) - Shaanoh: 449 | Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | Tivativalu: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | : 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | Ranjitrip: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | SASH8288: 446 | Sreedev83: 446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | Yiss: 445 | IeltsDream2019: 445
  • 441-444 (Total 32) - NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | LKRYA: 443 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | ravinder_singh:443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441
  • 435-440 (Total 14) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 6) - Eddiesol: 433 | Life79: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421
Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.
Please update my new score to 447
 

13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,568
3,163
Canada
I'm feeling hopeful too; an increase in draw size or frequency is inevitable:

  • Target for 2018: 74900
  • Invites sent in 2018: 89600
  • % over target: 19.62%
  • Target for 2019: 81400
  • Predicted invites sent in 2019: 19.62% x 81400 = 97375
  • Invites already sent in 2019: 31750
  • Invites remaining to send in 2019: 65625
Assuming one more draw in May and two draws per month until the end of the year, let's say we have at least 15 draws remaining. The average draw size in this case needs to be 4375 for CIC to meet its target.
To some extent this makes sense, let's see how CIC run the show in the remaining year.
 
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Bageshree

Member
May 13, 2019
14
4
(Updated till 11:30 AM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:
  • 460+ (Total 6) - | Ali1122: 479 | indpnv: 473 | KayPi: 468 | ashwin863: 462 | ajangbar001: 461 | meet0708: 461
  • 455-460 (Total 7) – ryeCatcher: 460 | #EEC: 457 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Nsidhu: 455
  • 450-454 (Total 21) - Folaroyal: 453 | Suhasrs: 452 | cdddelhi: 451 | 13nitinsharma: 450 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | DreamITA: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450
  • 445-449 (Total 50) - Shaanoh: 449 | Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | Tivativalu: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | : 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | Ranjitrip: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | LKRYA: 447 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | SASH8288: 446 | Sreedev83: 446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | Yiss: 445 | IeltsDream2019: 445
  • 441-444 (Total 32) - NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | ravinder_singh:443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Eddiesol: 433 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441
  • 435-440 (Total 14) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 5) - Life79: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421
Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.
Bageshree-451