Ray of Hope - 116th Draw
- Thread starter NikSharma01
- Start date
Hi, could you share the method of calculting how many 450+ candidates entering into the pool each day? that'd be very helpful to predict the flow. thanks!
It's v simple. Take stats from previous draw, current draw, adjust with 3350 and there it is !!!
Lol...CIC has made us experts in predicting draws since I’ve been waiting from the last 5 draws.
I dont feel to bother anymore since with time, we all will witness so many obvious changes in the upcoming draws (increase no. of ITAs, draw happening on 1 week gap, CRS cut-off in 440s again). It’s just a matter of time, we’re so close to the next phase.
Forget about the flow of applicants everyday, this will not always remain the same. Be positive!!
there will be a gradal decrease in the CRS point cut-off. It seems quite odd to have a the same number of 450+ applicants everyday. Hopefully, the tie-break was in April for the last draw, meaning that the number of 450+ applicant have been decreasing slightly. Be positive then!
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of February 14, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 438
451-600 2,927
401-450 31,252
441-450 1,276
431-440 8,88
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of April 12, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 273
451-600 1,903
401-450 34,909
441-450 4,410
431-440 9,539
So, isnt it a good sign?
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 438
451-600 2,927
401-450 31,252
441-450 1,276
431-440 8,88
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of April 12, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 273
451-600 1,903
401-450 34,909
441-450 4,410
431-440 9,539
So, isnt it a good sign?
(Updated till 1:00 PM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:
- 460+ (Total 3) - Teeceem7: 1063 | yumirdci: 464 | Nikeobi5: 477
- 455-460 (Total 0) - 0
- 450-454 (Total 17) - 13nitinsharma: 450 | Yiss: 450 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | matteis:450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | reddermorel: 454 | AlejandroMP: 451 | karanshah2410: 451 | ekta29: 450 | | skg1988: 450 | Suhasrs: 450 | Adaodu: 452 | DreamITA: 450
- 445-449 (Total 38) - Shaanoh: 449 | Ali1122: 447 | Sara890: 447 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | D'trox: 447 | Div_newbie:449 | vmsanthosh.chn:446 | Kk1234:446 | aloobharta01:448 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445 | veritas1994: 449 | frightenedpanda: 445 | patel_d07: 448 | Noopur_23: 447 | dawak: 445 | dappy9: 449 | itsram: 448 | Ravi_15: 447 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Manru:449 | msgill88:445 | SASH8288: 446 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | v_nitesh_k: 449 | Sreedev83: 446 | Tivativalu: 448 | Queenslander88: 445 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | MynameisMTS: 446 | MittalM: 445 | | Flowerview: 447 | RochelleAlford: 446 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | siataheri:445 | Meer85: 447 | MV18: 447
- 441-444 (Total 24) - NikSharma01:444 | ghvijay: 443 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | JamesRodriguez: 440 | LKRYA: 443 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Ram89: 441 | cdddelhi: 444 | Life79: 441 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | Kiamin: 442 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | intels: 441 | pursuit: 443 | ravinder_singh:443 | sidra91: 443 | | kadeed:444 | rharmon: 443 | Jms_16: 444 | Maalee: 441
- 435-440 (Total 11) - Siddharth-BOM: 438 | ppa: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Nidsy: 438 | Sam0301: 437 | bluehorse:440
- Below 435 (Total 5) - moto90: 424 | Day2203: 431 | Sdabas: 421 | AND IND: 423 | Eddiesol: 433
Good sign for 451+ but not for those applicants who fall under 441-450.
Range 441-450 is keep on adding and has gone up enormously since January 30th draw (CRS 457). So, applicants with 450 & below scores are still waiting for their turn since they didn't get a chance to smile (except shocks) since last 5 draws (including ME)
Well, yes. But I think it will be decreasing in the future gradually since 450+ pool will be diminished. there were some reasons why a huge number of applicants rushed to the pool, and it cant remain the same, I suppose.Good sign for 451+ but not for those applicants who fall under 441-450.
Range 441-450 is keep on adding and has gone up enormously since January 30th draw (CRS 457). So, applicants with 450 & below scores are still waiting for their turn since they didn't get a chance to smile (except shocks) since last 5 draws (including ME)
Of course YES. Like I mentioned earlier, you'll witness so many obvious changes with increased number of ITA's, surprise draws with 1 week gap, low CRS cut-offs.
The current trend of CRS cut-off is just a temporary phase. This shall pass soon and it has been started decreasing now. Once applicants with 450 score are through, CIC will increase the number of ITAs and draw with 1 week gap to clear applicants till 444-445 scores.
You can see the stats & trend for previous year too, CIC is almost running the show same way. Under Draw#5, they raised the score to 456 from 442. This year, Draw#4 is the evident of increased CRS score at 457. See below:
Great. So you think that it will be decreasing!Of course YES. Like I mentioned earlier, you'll witness so many obvious changes with increased number of ITA's, surprise draws with 1 week gap, low CRS cut-offs.
The current trend of CRS cut-off is just a temporary phase. This shall pass soon and it has been started decreasing now. Once applicants with 450 score are through, CIC will increase the number of ITAs and draw with 1 week gap to clear applicants till 444-445 scores.
You can see the stats & trend for previous year too, CIC is almost running the show same way. Under Draw#5, they raised the score to 456 from 442. This year, Draw#4 is the evident of increased CRS score at 457. See below:
Hoping to happen that soon ! Fingers are crossed...Great. So you think that it will be decreasing!
Although, the system has evident an effective decrease in the 450+ applicants since the last draw. However, we cannot avoid the figure of 234.5 profiles per day. If the same trend is followed, the number of applicants with 450+ CRS is very likely to rise again into the pool within this 2 week period, thus making the situation more intense.
234.5*14=3283
Honestly, I want these calculations of mine to be proved wrong! Good luck everybody.
234.5*14=3283
Honestly, I want these calculations of mine to be proved wrong! Good luck everybody.