Ray of Hope - 115th Draw

[hakweye]

Have been thinking the same...the only possibility is that around 1200 ppl who got invited in this draw are those with crs >= 451 before Jan 9 and who have been declining invitations so far + those with >= 451 who got added in pool between 29th March and April 3.

hi, thx for the reply...
I understand what u have said but the number of people cancelling their invite must b very very less.
Also as per 29th March 2019 CRS distribution, there were 1961 candidates having a score between 451-600 and 246 candidates having score above 600. So total candidates were 2207 candidates in No. 114 draw, and IRCC gives ITA to around 3400 candidates every time, then why the cut-off was 451, I believe it should have been lower than this to have a draw size of 3400.

This means 1100+ candidates got added into pool after Mar 29 who were above 451+.
As mentioned by @keyur sharma below factors play huge factor in deciding this number. Next draw is mid of the month draw so "Inland applicants adds there experience" won't be there

QUOTE="keyur sharma, post: 7722188, member: 642856"]People are telling my predictions negetive but they are rite. Without any ielts result CRS was 451 and reason for that are

1. Inland applicants adds there experience
2. Computer based IELTS
3. PNP
4. CELPIP Exam
5. There will be some new inland or Outland applicants with great ielts results.
6. ECA report. People were waiting but than they recived it so they get their points and apply.
7. Don’t forget PNP of Provence Edward island, Northwest territory ( processing time is 3 weeks once you recived invitation for PNP)[/QUOTE]

 

[T80]

I think now the backlog post Feb 20 is fully cleared...leaving only 451 profiles created after Jan 9 (tie break date) this time...who declined the ita on Jan 30 and all the ones added post Jan 30 till now...
I hope that the cutoff now will show some sizable decline...however I think the intake of 451-600 & 600+ ones has been on a rise...must be 200+ on a daily basis so even 451 as cutoff draw isn't looking too promising...
I think increase in number of ITAs or b2b draw are the only way out...

 

[Island_vibes]

If they have a draw next week, it is possible to go 445 too !

I hope April is a good month for all

Hi Dear, do u know someone who submitted their PR after they completed their work anniversary? Did they go through ? Like I said before , I received the ITA 459, that's because I received the extra points for 2 years, still have a month to complete. Kinda worried.

 

[Island_vibes]

This means 1100+ candidates got added into pool after Mar 29 who were above 451+.
As mentioned by @keyur sharma below factors play huge factor in deciding this number. Next draw is mid of the month draw so "Inland applicants adds there experience" won't be there

QUOTE="keyur sharma, post: 7722188, member: 642856"]People are telling my predictions negetive but they are rite. Without any ielts result CRS was 451 and reason for that are

1. Inland applicants adds there experience
2. Computer based IELTS
3. PNP
4. CELPIP Exam
5. There will be some new inland or Outland applicants with great ielts results.
6. ECA report. People were waiting but than they recived it so they get their points and apply.
7. Don’t forget PNP of Provence Edward island, Northwest territory ( processing time is 3 weeks once you recived invitation for PNP)

[/QUOTE]
This is true . The reason for the Jan 09 tie breaker date is candidate receive extra points for 2 years (CEC) at the beginning of the month. This happened to me to.

 

[Agarwalparesh26]

Yes

If your 2nd attempt for Ielts is worth than the 1st one you can still use your 1st Ielts results for express entry, correct?

 

[Agarwalparesh26]

I want to know this too

Yes

 

[skg1988]

Whenever I become too desperate for something, usually I don't get that thing on an average time scale. However, I often achieve them at the lend or when I stop thinking about them. So, now I decided to be least active in this thread.

 

[hakweye]

Hi Dear, do u know someone who submitted their PR after they completed their work anniversary? Did they go through ? Like I said before , I received the ITA 459, that's because I received the extra points for 2 years, still have a month to complete. Kinda worried.

Hey island, don’t worry I have many friends in same scenario and got pr.. just submit your docs after you complete two years

 

[T80]

Whenever I become too desperate for something, usually I don't get that thing on an average time scale. However, I often achieve them at the lend or when I stop thinking about them. So, now I decided to be least active in this thread.

Also tell me how are you planning to do that...need to do the same...

 

[Island_vibes]

Hey island, don’t worry I have many friends in same scenario and got pr.. just submit your docs after you complete two years

Thanks Hakweye

 

[a16107]

Hi Dear, do u know someone who submitted their PR after they completed their work anniversary? Did they go through ? Like I said before , I received the ITA 459, that's because I received the extra points for 2 years, still have a month to complete. Kinda worried.

I asked my agency and they said we are okay with it.

I had the exact same question back to few months ago on this forum, some senior members also confirmed it and few people claimed they got their PR too

It is actually good for us because we have one month to gather all the documents and body check with our issued ITA

 

[Island_vibes]

I asked my agency and they said we are okay with it.

I had the exact same question back to few months ago on this forum, some senior members also confirmed it and few people claimed they got their PR too

Thanks dear ! It makes sense. Given they prob already know this. But just wanted to be careful! Thanks again

 

[northern sunshine]

Wait, from 451 to 1200 comes up to be 2,207 profiles. What about the remaining 1,143 profiles?
601-1,200 246
451-600 1,961

This is why it's important to also post the date of the data alongside the data itself. The numbers are from March 29, meaning there were several days between the time of the report and the time of the draw. The remaining mystery 1,143 profiles were either created (new) or updated (language exam scores, work experience, etc.) in that time frame.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of March 29, 2019

CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 246
451-600 1,961
401-450 34,249
441-450 3,646
431-440 9,408
421-430 6,655
411-420 6,936
401-410 7,604
351-400 40,029
391-400 7,239
381-390 8,353
371-380 8,354
361-370 8,278
351-360 7,805
301-350 23,038
0-300 3,462
Total 102,985

I'm not sure why they reduced the number of invitations issued per draw this year, but that's definitely been a contributor to the very high scores.

 

[Island_vibes]

I asked my agency and they said we are okay with it.

I had the exact same question back to few months ago on this forum, some senior members also confirmed it and few people claimed they got their PR too

It is actually good for us because we have one month to gather all the documents and body check with our issued ITA

Yes , wish you all the best with your application. They should already know this . Otherwise people will reject ITAs and go back to the pool and will probably have the same problem for a month.

 

[SeniorStakes]

So i wanted to see for myself a broader picture of the draws since 2017, just to see if i notice any trends:

And basically the trend (blue line) is pretty flat since Jan 2017. The high and low spikes are associated with "unusual" invitations, which were either invitations with very low scores or very high ones. Usually they were in the range of less than 500 invitations, so overall they do not play a major role.
Average score since Jan 2017: 438
Average 2017 score: 431
Average 2018 score: 442
Average 2019 score: 449 (clearly misrepresented since we do no have full 2019 data)
Number of draws 2017: 31
Number of draws 2018: 27
Average draws per month: 2.21

This of course does not count in other factors, but based on this alone, those with 440+ points probably have a good chance in 2019.

You should plot the pool strength too which is an important factor