Ray of Hope - 114th Draw

[veritas1994]

1. Backlog freed up in the last draw: 390 (obtained from stats on 28 Feb versus 14 Mar)
2. Number of applications 441 - 500 on 14 Mar: 2823
3. Let's assume number of folks at 451 and 452 to be 300 each
4. Pending backlog : 300 + 300*0.75 (as partial 452 was given ITAs) = 525
5. As we are taking cues from 28 Feb to 14 Mar, and given that IELTS result dates were 27 Feb and 15 Mar, no IELTS result aspect is getting offset.
6. Backlog getting cleared from 14 Mar to 3 April: 390 + 390*6/14 = 557
7. General increase in 450+ application flow : 100

Therefore, as -557 + 525 + 100 = ~50, we can conclude that most of 451+ backlog get through in the coming draw and the CRS cut-off should be 451 itself.

PS: The above analysis is done objectively without considering my own CRS score

Are these values number of people?? I am not sure I understand this

 

[13nitinsharma]

1. Backlog freed up in the last draw: 390 (obtained from stats on 28 Feb versus 14 Mar)
2. Number of applications 441 - 500 on 14 Mar: 2823
3. Let's assume number of folks at 451 and 452 to be 300 each
4. Pending backlog : 300 + 300*0.75 (as partial 452 was given ITAs) = 525
5. As we are taking cues from 28 Feb to 14 Mar, and given that IELTS result dates were 27 Feb and 15 Mar, no IELTS result aspect is getting offset.
6. Backlog getting cleared from 14 Mar to 3 April: 390 + 390*6/14 = 557
7. General increase in 450+ application flow : 100

Therefore, as -557 + 525 + 100 = ~50, we can conclude that most of 451+ backlog get through in the coming draw and the CRS cut-off should be 451 itself.

PS: The above analysis is done objectively without considering my own CRS score

In depth analysis, agreed to some extent.

I hope your weight is not reduced from 72 below so far. Just kidding!

 

[Sara890]

There is a massive hue & cry on the WES threads where people have stated that WES is taking longer than usual and shouting that they have a huge pile of applications to evaluate.

This clearly means the inflow of applications is either going to increase or has already increased. I won't be surprised if the cut-off stays at 452 or increases by 1 or 2.

It may also be the case that the increase of WES applications is only from India which are most difficult for them to evaluate and this is why they are concerned. Indian applications made up only 15 percent of the pool in 2017 so this may not have much impact.

It's true that WES is taking a lot of time to provide ECA report. I'm now at 447 and waiting for spouse WES , but not sure when it's going to come. Sent all documents to WES in December and in Feb they provided an update that PG transcripts are sent for verification to the institute. But the institute haven't received any verification email or mail till date. We are not sure what has to be done now to get his ECA report. We even requested WES to cancel PG credentials from evaluation and provide report with degree. However WES denied that request as well.

 

[13nitinsharma]

Updated (till 12:30 pm IST today) CRS summary of active members in this thread:

• 460+ (Total 3) - maheshmit: 465 | Pakchikpak:463 | dharmmie: 478

• 455-460 (Total 2) - Ram_Pravesh:459 | JNS1214: 456

• 450-454 (Total 15) - 13nitinsharma: 450 | oghosh: 452 | SeniorStakes: 451 | Sanghapreet: 451 | Yiss: 450 | T80: 451 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | matteis:450 | Ruth31:451 | bishcan:452 | siataheri:450 | biquanbi96: 451 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450

• 445-449 (Total 15) - Shaanoh: 449 | Ali1122: 447 | Sara890: 447 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | skg1988: 445 | pursuit: 448 | a16107: 445 | D'trox: 447 | Div_newbie:446 | vmsanthosh.chn:446 | Kk1234:446 | aloobharta01:448 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445

• 441-444 (Total 14) - NikSharma01:444 | ghvijay: 443 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | JamesRodriguez: 440 | LKRYA: 443 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Ram89: 441 | asad_ali_awan: 444 | cdddelhi: 444 | Life79: 441 | Agarwalparesh26: 442 | Ainpeespirant: 443

• 435-440 (Total 6) - Siddharth-BOM: 438 | ppa: 438 | cadiee:438 | krishnapahlajani93:438 | Sara1981:438 | kadeed:436

• Below 435 (Total 2) - moto90: 424 | Day2203: 431

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

 

[13nitinsharma]

Golden Wednesday is on the way, eagerly waiting to see what kind of surprise we've this time from CIC.

I hope we all get our ITAs this Wednesday, fingers crossed!!

 

[oghosh]

There is a massive hue & cry on the WES threads where people have stated that WES is taking longer than usual and shouting that they have a huge pile of applications to evaluate.

This clearly means the inflow of applications is either going to increase or has already increased. I won't be surprised if the cut-off stays at 452 or increases by 1 or 2.

It may also be the case that the increase of WES applications is only from India which are most difficult for them to evaluate and this is why they are concerned. Indian applications made up only 15 percent of the pool in 2017 so this may not have much impact.

I'm at 452, so with this logic, the wait still continues?

 

[veritas1994]

I'm at 452, so with this logic, the wait still continues?

you are getting an ITA this draw.

 

[13nitinsharma]

I'm at 452, so with this logic, the wait still continues?

You're safe this time, and through for sure!!

 

[13nitinsharma]

Applicants above 450 are on the safer side and they don't have to worry about CRS score on Wednesday.

This time, the real suspense is for people with 449/450 score!!

 

[Shishir Chandra Kumar]

Golden Wednesday is on the way, eagerly waiting to see what kind of surprise we've this time from CIC.

I hope we all get our ITAs this Wednesday, fingers crossed!!

I'm pretty confident about you @13nitinsharma , and all the peeps above 450 in this draw. Hope you have your docs ready...All the best !!!

 

[13nitinsharma]

I'm pretty confident about you @13nitinsharma , and all the peeps above 450 in this draw. Hope you have your docs ready...All the best !!!

Thanks my friend. Docs are ready but ITA is not yet ready. Lol!!

 

[veritas1994]

Thanks my friend. Docs are ready but ITA is not yet ready. Lol!!

PCC done too?

 

[13nitinsharma]

PCC done too?

Yes.

 

[veritas1994]

Applicants above 450 are on the safer side and they don't have to worry about CRS score on Wednesday.

This time, the real suspense is for people with 449/450 score!!

I hear you I am hoping for 3900 ITAs and maybe I could sneak in then. With 3350 it seems unlikely

 

[veritas1994]

Yes.

They didnt ask for ITA?