Ray of Hope - 114th Draw

[SeniorStakes]

Ofcourse there is no pattern when it comes to draws and IRCC is unpredictable but I seem to notice that generally back to back draws happen when there is a long 3 week gap before the next draw to make up.

Like the one we had in December and January. Also sometimes 3 weeks gap can happen if they decide to clear backlogs instead. Again this is all just what I have noticed from the last year or so and IRCC is highly unpredictable.

I believe it will be 450. So you do stand a chance. 449 is pretty good score!! You will eventually make it

That's signature. Click on your profile name on the top right corner and go to signature. You will be able add/edit cool things to make a signature.

People say IRCC is unpredictable. I say inflow of applications is unpredictable.

Other than this 1-week / 3-week thing, IRCC doesn't really change anything else. It is the inflow of applications which keeps varying across a wide spectrum.

 

[veritas1994]

Ofcourse there is no pattern when it comes to draws and IRCC is unpredictable but I seem to notice that generally back to back draws happen when there is a long 3 week gap before the next draw to make up.

Like the one we had in December and January. Also sometimes 3 weeks gap can happen if they decide to clear backlogs instead. Again this is all just what I have noticed from the last year or so and IRCC is highly unpredictable.

I believe it will be 450. So you do stand a chance. 449 is pretty good score!! You will eventually make it

That's signature. Click on your profile name on the top right corner and go to signature. You will be able add/edit cool things to make a signature.

Thanks for the tip about the signature

 

[veritas1994]

People say IRCC is unpredictable. I say inflow of applications is unpredictable.

Other than this 1-week / 3-week thing, IRCC doesn't really change anything else. It is the inflow of applications which keeps varying across a wide spectrum.

Yeah I see what you mean. Though, number of ITAs per draw is also another variable that rests within IRCC's control. But I think when people say IRCC is unpredictable they mean the draw is.

 

[Agarwalparesh26]

Updated (till 11:50 am IST today) CRS summary of active members in this thread:

• 460+ (Total 2) - maheshmit: 465 | Pakchikpak:463

• 455-460 (Total 1) - Ram_Pravesh:459

• 450-454 (Total 15) - 13nitinsharma: 450 | oghosh: 452 | SeniorStakes: 451 | Sanghapreet: 451 | Yiss: 450 | T80: 451 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | matteis:450 | Ruth31:451 | bishcan:452 | siataheri:450 | biquanbi96: 451 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450

• 445-449 (Total 15) - Shaanoh: 449 | Ali1122: 447 | Sara890: 447 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | skg1988: 445 | pursuit: 448 | a16107: 445 | D'trox: 447 | Div_newbie:446 | vmsanthosh.chn:446 | Kk1234:446 | aloobharta01:448 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445

• 441-444 (Total 12) - NikSharma01:444 | ghvijay: 443 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | JamesRodriguez: 440 | LKRYA: 443 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Ram89: 441 | asad_ali_awan: 444 | cdddelhi: 444 | Life79: 441

• 435-440 (Total 5) - Siddharth-BOM: 438 | ppa: 438 | cadiee:438 | krishnapahlajani93:438 | Sara1981:438

• Below 435 (Total 2) - moto90: 424 | Day2203: 431

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

Hi,

My CRS is 442, hoping to get ITA by may end.. do I have realistic expectation

 

[skg1988]

For the next draw, I am finding it little hard to predict because it is actually hard to predict.

The 450+ speed increased from 183 in late Feb to 211 in early Mar. If we extrapolate the speed further, it can go up to 240, at which the cut-off will increase further from 452 to may be 453 or will stay 452 itself. On the other hand, if we take two-month average and expect speed to stay around 206, the cut-off can come down to 449/450.

It is largely uncertain as it's difficult to predict the inflow of applications.

100% agreed. However, I don't think 450+ candidates will increase to 240. The pattern was 224, 183 and 211 in the last 3 biweekly gap. I think maximum could be around 215 unless there are two ielts results, and minimum could be anything but 150+.
So maximum cut off would be 451, but i think it is somewhere 449/+-1 with 3350 itas.

 

[veritas1994]

100% agreed. However, I don't think 450+ candidates will increase to 240. The pattern was 224, 183 and 211 in the last 3 biweekly gap. I think maximum would be 215 now onwards there are two ielts results minimum could be anything more but 150+.
So maximum cut off would be 451, but i think it is somewhere 449/+-1 with 3350 itas.

God I am hoping so bad for 3900 ITAs instead of 3350 this time. Could go down another 2 points in that case.

 

[NikSharma01]

Yeah I see what you mean. Though, number of ITAs per draw is also another variable that rests within IRCC's control. But I think when people say IRCC is unpredictable they mean the draw is.

Not only the draw. Each aspect of IRCC is unpredictable. You never know when there will be a 3-week/1-week gap inbetween the draws. You never know when the ITAs will be increased. You never know when there would be a single draw in a month, and few other things.

 

[skg1988]

People say IRCC is unpredictable. I say inflow of applications is unpredictable.

Other than this 1-week / 3-week thing, IRCC doesn't really change anything else. It is the inflow of applications which keeps varying across a wide spectrum.

Exactly thats what i mean. However, one 3-week gap or b2b draw influence 3-5 additional draws and makes calculations more complicated.

 

[skg1988]

God I am hoping so bad for 3900 ITAs instead of 3350 this time. Could go down another 2 points in that case.

I am praying for this since last two draws. Even 3700 or 3500 itas would be better. If, CIC sees a year as 4 quaters, therefore, there is a high chance to have more itas. Otherwise, July onwards they have to increase to reach their target.

 

[SithLord]

People say IRCC is unpredictable. I say inflow of applications is unpredictable.

Other than this 1-week / 3-week thing, IRCC doesn't really change anything else. It is the inflow of applications which keeps varying across a wide spectrum.

More and more people are aware Canada is welcoming immigrants with open arms so not surprised the numbers are increasing. I think they laid the foundation back in 2017 when the CRS score was in 430s and processing times were super fast.

 

[13nitinsharma]

Hi,

My CRS is 442, hoping to get ITA by may end.. do I have realistic expectation

Only if CIC comes with 3900 invites and one back to back draw in between, then you’re through for sure.

 

[SeniorStakes]

100% agreed. However, I don't think 450+ candidates will increase to 240. The pattern was 224, 183 and 211 in the last 3 biweekly gap. I think maximum could be around 215 unless there are two ielts results, and minimum could be anything but 150+.
So maximum cut off would be 451, but i think it is somewhere 449/+-1 with 3350 itas.

@skg1988 where from did you get the data point 224 for the first two weeks of Feb? Did you just divide 3365 with 15? Over here, it is not certain whether CIC took the snapshot in the beginning of the day, middle or end. Therefore, the denominator could be anywhere between 14.75 to 15.75.. do you agree or disagree?

 

[Agarwalparesh26]

Thanks sir..

Only if CIC comes with 3900 invites and one back to back draw in between, then you’re through for sure.

Thanks sir.. struggle was long for me as well after 5th attempt got ielts desired score(still can improve) , wes went for re-verification(struggled alot).
Finally created profile on 13th March, now feeling 442 is less.But I

 

[Agarwalparesh26]

But I am hopeful

 

[13nitinsharma]

Thanks sir..

Thanks sir.. struggle was long for me as well after 5th attempt got ielts desired score(still can improve) , wes went for re-verification(struggled alot).
Finally created profile on 13th March, now feeling 442 is less.But I

I can completely understand your journey so far and i wish you get your ITA soon, good luck buddy!!