I agree and understand that every system becomes stable, in terms of accuracy, after a certain period of time. However, it is unlikely that it becomes stable abruptly, what I mean is that there should be a trend. For example, in 2017, 120.5% ITAs were issued and in 2018, they were119.9 %. It is, therefore, less likely to expect only 4-5 % extra ITAs in 2019.
What I was trying to say is that I have seen people, in the same thread, even with more than 447 points are getting panicked and thinking of another IELTS not because they are losing points soon but they are afraid whether they will get an ITA.
CIC knows the exact position of all the candidates and, even though, they will not let us know our exact rank in the pool. This is all about business and, I think, the key factor which is controlling the borderline score, which makes difference, is language test and candidates always think that they can further increase their score, which is a trap.
These language testing organizations will always be against to display the exact rank of a candidate. Furthermore, many candidates apply through immigration agents who again make money through fabricating things in a complicated manner.
Anyway, that is my opinion.
Cheers,
Suraj
Ok
1. And yes you can see the trend of learning curve and stabilization between 2016 and 2018.
At the end of 2016 they started to gradually increase ITA as they were running out of old paper applications.
However they went a bit overboard with it in the first half of 2017 and they had to slow down in the second half (most likely they went according old statistics data from first 2 years, where the waste rate of ITA might have been rather high.
However from that on you can see more or less stable trend with minor corrections in 2018 (ITAs were more or less spread out all over the year with slow increase close to the end of the year.
2. Influence of PNP.
Also PNP were not increased that significantly in the targets as such, more significant change was happening when it comes to ratio of paper applications and EE PNP.
Just for comparison, first year (2015) only 7% of all PNP went through EE. While in 2017 it was already around 25% with more increase in 2018.
So while the maturity of the system was pushing waste ITA down, EE PNP were pulling total amount of ITA up.
So that is second reason why such trend is still not very visible (at least not for us).
3. CIC Conspiration.
CIC does not really care about current CRS level for ITA. Why? Because regulation of the points as such does not give any targeted results. (you can have one person with just 1 year of work experience and a Bachelor degree, but because he studied and work that year in Canada, he will be on par with somebody who has Master and 3 years of work experience, but none from Canada).
So for what they care are minimum requirements (language, 1 year work experience and a high school). And as long as that is met all is good (of course with 67 points and ITA CRS).
Culprit of the increasing CRS requirement is actually competition. That and general knowledge of the system.
Because the more people compete, the higher statistical probability that they will have CRS of certain level.
And the more people understand how points work, the more of them is able to get more points (hello transferability points).
5. As for panicking. I have seen opposite behavior here. I have seen people with 435 points waiting for CRS to come down in 2018. I have seen some that wasted NOI from Ontario.
So I would not consider booking additional IELTS test as panicking (and no I do not work for British institute or something like that. I even consider that language test perfection as kind of silly, however that is the way to lot of points).
It is more about priorities. For those that immigrating is the most important thing, it is obvious, that they will spend lot of effort to get there. If for others, this is just an option, it is up to them to draw the line how much do they want to invest and see if they make it or not.
