I don't agree with your view that the number of ITAs will not increase in the coming draws. If you analyze a bit more carefully, I think, you will find that in 2018 target was 74900 which could have been achieved with 3000*25 =75000. There was no shortfall with 3000 ITAs until they did not include declined ITAs.
The deadline to submit the application was 90 days which means they could only know the decline rate on 10 April as the first draw was on 10th Jan. Consequently, they increased the number of ITAs to 3500 in 11th April draw.
As the rule to submit the application has been changed from 90 days to 60 days, there, in an ideal case, would have been an increase in ITAs starting from 10th March.
One possible explanation of why the number of ITAs did not increase in 20th March draw----
They had already issued 17850 ITAs in 5 draws on an average of 3570/draw. Or 21200 ITAs in 6 draws, March 20 inclusive, on an average of 3533/draw.
Thus, I hope, there should be an increase in the number of ITAs in the next draw or definitely after 1-2 draws unless there is a drastic change in the rate of ITAs declined compared to previous years.
Cheers,
Suraj
there are certain things that needs to be corrected.
Immigration has rather exact data of all this:
1. Total waste rate in % from all issued ITA (all ITA that will not make it to an approved application and successful landing), is not something that does change because the limits for year are different. However this tends to go down if system is stable (no sudden changes in documents or other requirements) and if system is long enough.
In case of EE, after this long time, whole system is known and lot of immigration consultant have learned to work with it well. Additionally there is plenty info on different website. So as a result this waste rate should have gone down. Of that is not good news for amount of needed ITA.
So this in a long run has unfortunately slightly negative effect. (as less people mess up their applications, so there will be less "spare ITAs" needed).
2. Portion of applicants that were actually using longer application period (application sent within last 30 days). If they want to they can have day to day analysis, or a better looking one for each 7 or 10 days. What they have found out is, that most likely only very small amount of applicants were dragging for the last moment, so more generous application time is not really big advantage. However it will give them a bit better accurancy especially when reaching end of the year when remaining target for that period might be small.
Overall, the change from 90 days to 60 should not have much of negative impact. if anything it will have slightly positive impact in the long run, as those prepared can take spots of those that do not have required documents fast (and yes PCC has an exception, as long as you submit the proof that you have asked for it but you are still waiting for it). And later on effect will be neutral (people will learn to be faster).
By the way the whole learning curve of the system itself is the direct root cause why there are so many EE profiles and why so many people get higher CRS.