Ray of Hope - 112th Draw

[Amansivan]

Hi all,
I am expecting ITA in next draw, the issue i am having is the CRS discrepancy in EE profile, score breakdown looks correct, However the grand total is showing 15 points less than it supposed to be. Any suggestions?
Thanks

Hi all,
Can someone please help me if that is an issue. How can i get it corrected?
Thanks

 

[SeniorStakes]

I am expecting that the worst is yet to come because of these two reasons:

1. Last year, CRS cut off peaked in March, not February.

2. When the score moved back from 456 to 446, it was a 12 day draw, not 14 day.

At this point, there is a backlog of 2000 450+ candidates. Also, a lot of people are suddenly applying for Canada PR.

I don't think the cut-off will go below 455 in near future.

 

[SeniorStakes]

Yes please , 99% chance of getting through before your birthday . Hopefully in the next draw. All the best

I disagree

 

[SeniorStakes]

What are the chances of a draw happening tomorrow (27th Feb)? If there is a draw tomorrow, then what would be the cut-off score?

1. Five percent is the probability of draw happening tomorrow.

2. If there is a draw tomorrow, the cut-off should be 448-449. It is so because there is a backlog of around 1300 450+ people from last draw. In addition, at the rate of 220 450+ people getting in the pool everyday, it would result in additional 1550 450+ folks taking the total to 2850. With additional buffer of 500 (3350 - 2850), the cut-off will be down by additional 1-2 points.

Thus, if a draw occurs tomorrow, the cut-off would be 448 or 449. If a draw occurs next Wednesday, the cut-off would be 452-453.

 

[Walid hus]

Hi everyone,

So, two of my police certificates are in Arabic (Egypt and Yemen). When I translated both them, I was only given the English translation in a letterhead paper with the agency's stamp. They weren't familiar with translation affidavits as notary public can only certify Arabic documents by law. I was able to get the Yemeni PCC stamped from the ministry of exterior as well, but the Egyptian one only has the agency's stamp. Though the agency is licenced by the Ministry of Culture and UNESCO, but the license is in Arabic.
What can I do other than submitting the translations, originals, and LoE?

 

[MzBAH]

Unless something will change (huge increase of quota - unlikely as multiyear quota is approve; big decrease of EE account - well opposite is happening; big changes in points and points calculation - this is uknown, but if they cut down some points, current 413 profiles would go lower on the spot), the history from 2017 will not repeat.
So for those that are on 413, either increase your CRS or forget Canada.

Yes anything can happen really. I know people like to use their historical facts to form future predictions but nobody really knows what's going to happen until after it happens unless they work directly for IRCC. I've noticed that there are people in here quoting facts as if they're 100% sure when they're not and will only seek to justify or find a reason for the anomaly after it occurs because they had no clue it was coming. Nothing wrong with trying to make predictions as it's very helpful to some but I'm sticking with encouragement. If someone has a low score and there's something they can do to improve it, they should definitely tey their best to improve but in the mean time, some hope wouldn't hurt.

 

[abhishek_89]

Thanks for the inputs.

My CRS is 450 and I can bring it up to Max 456 by giving IELTS again.

I will lose 5 points in late April due to age age. Would you recommend me to give IELTS again?

I am expecting the cut off to go back under 450 by March end, assuming they have 2 week gap draws.

 

[Satyanarayana Arnepalli]

I am expecting the cut off will be around 447 if there is a draw tomorrow (Feb 27th) or else around 450 if it is on March 6th with a variance of +-2

 

[abhishek_89]

I am expecting that the worst is yet to come because of these two reasons:

1. Last year, CRS cut off peaked in March, not February.

2. When the score moved back from 456 to 446, it was a 12 day draw, not 14 day.

At this point, there is a backlog of 2000 450+ candidates. Also, a lot of people are suddenly applying for Canada PR.

I don't think the cut-off will go below 455 in near future.

If CIC have to keep the cut off above 455, then they need to do 3 week gap draws continuously with 3350 ITAs which is very improbable.

 

[13nitinsharma]

I'm at 450, what are the chances in next draw?

 

[SeniorStakes]

I'm at 450, what are the chances in next draw?

Same as mine because I am at 450 too

 

[SeniorStakes]

Same as mine because I am at 450 too

Lol! A little humour is good in these frustrating times. Are you 30+?

 

[abhishek_89]

1. Five percent is the probability of draw happening tomorrow.

2. If there is a draw tomorrow, the cut-off should be 448-449. It is so because there is a backlog of around 1300 450+ people from last draw. In addition, at the rate of 220 450+ people getting in the pool everyday, it would result in additional 1550 450+ folks taking the total to 2850. With additional buffer of 500 (3350 - 2850), the cut-off will be down by additional 1-2 points.

Thus, if a draw occurs tomorrow, the cut-off would be 448 or 449. If a draw occurs next Wednesday, the cut-off would be 452-453.

Your calculations are a bit on the higher side. I guess you are trying to jinx it out so the cut off stays low!

If a draw happens tomorrow, cut off would be around CRS 445. Only if the next draw happens on March 6th, the cut off will cross 450.

 

[SeniorStakes]

Your calculations are a bit on the higher side. I guess you are trying to jinx it out so the cut off stays low!

If a draw happens tomorrow, cut off would be around CRS 445. Only if the next draw happens on March 6th, the cut off will cross 450.

I kept the pool rate same. Do you expect it to slow down a bit?

 

[13nitinsharma]

Lol! A little humour is good in these frustrating times. Are you 30+?

Lol! Yes.