September 2018 AOR - join here

[bhu1990]

Logic is flawed. And I'm sorry but saying that it's a fact, defies reasonable due diligence in making such claim.
One of my stats professor used to say "Statistics are like a bikini. They show what seems to matter, but hide the essential".

First, myimmitracker is not a reliable way to come up with the conclusion that September AORs are processed slower, as most applicants have not created a case on myimmitracker, and therefore cannot know the real number of September of AORs that got PPR or not by now. I'm not even mentioning the ones who have never updated their Immitracker ever since they've created them...

Second, your simple analysis completely ignores how accurate and complete September applications are, which may inherently delay the application processing (if there is any delay at all). Indeed, maybe the proportion of applications needing additional reviews is greater for September than for June, and maybe all applications from June were perfectly complete. That doesn't mean that the processing is slower...

Third, the fact that applicants from June for example got their PPR in 3 months, doesn't make it the norm, but on the contrary the exception. The normal processing time frame is 6 months, not 3 months. So, just because more people from June/July/August have it done in 3 months, doesn't make it a new reference for processing all of a sudden, and therefore claim that anything above that is from now on slow.

Maybe the proportion of applicants from September who get PPR within 5 months will be greater than the one from June, July, or August. You can't know until the 6 months period is reached for September AORs.

Look at it from a different perspective.
How about this one: June/July/August AOR was super fast!
Doesn't make September AOR slow. It's normal.

No comment on the logic or the conclusion, but still, I couldn't resist myself form replying seeing the word "Statistics"

Firstly, myimmitracker is one of the reliable source of data. Statistical analysis include analysis of sample data which does not necessarily include or cover all data, and the sample size on myimmitracker is quite enough.

Secondly, analysis completely ignores how accurate and complete September applications are; True, but it also ignores such data of previous months AORs. How can you be sure that there are more incomplete / inaccurate applicants in Sept. when you does not the have any such data. Do not make poor assumptions.

Thirdly, Yes it is not norm that application should be processed in three month but that does but refrains anyone from making any claim, just like you made the claim "the proportion of applications needing additional reviews is greater for September than for June, and maybe all applications from June were perfectly complete"

We all gathered over here are in "waiting phase". Lets be supportive to each other.

 

[halouhalou]

For those of you who think processing of September AORs is slow... It's only been two months...
Some applicants from June or July are still waiting for PPR, and that's normal because it's still within 6 months processing time...

And if you're not seeing any update, do know there might not be any update at all until PPR!
Like I said in many previous posts, the status page is extremely unreliable in determining the stage at which one's application is.
The so-called IP1/IP2/etc hold no bearing whatsoever in determining if your application is currently being processed for eligibility, criminality, or security, or any other stage. It's pure speculation!

Many applicants, including myself, have been in the so-called IP2 status since AOR and has never changed, and they got PPR with no problem. Some others were BGC as "Not Applicable" since AOR, never got an update for 6 months, but still got PPR.
Some have been "stuck" in so-called IP1 forever, but got the nice surprise of receiving PPR one sweet morning, without ever seeing so-called IP2 status.

I urge every single one of you to stop worrying about status not changing, thinking that your application is not moving. Don't forget that if you passed your medicals, R10 is very likely to be passed as well as it's processed before medicals, and application will therefore have moved to the next stages. So it is moving!

Also, it doesn't matter at all which visa office your application is at, as you may be told it's location X today, but gets moved to location Y tomorrow. It was important a long time ago when PR applications were paper based, and was kind of a relevant information because it was likely to stick in one location. But now, with Express Entry, all applications are digital, and can get moved around from office to office for efficiency reasons if a visa office is too busy! You might start in CIO Sydney, then moved to Ottawa, then moved to LVO, etc... They can do so in just one click from their end, so it's not really moving.

For detailed information, I invited you all to read a post by @legalfalcon about this.
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/november-2018-aor-join-here.592753/

All the best to all!

Thank you for the detailed explanation.

 

[Gofilipe]

Immitracker is far from the universe, but it likely has statistical significance. The fact that people voluntarily update it may increase the error margin. With that being said if you say that for august aor there were 66 pprs in the first 3 months, and for Sept aor there were 17 pprs it's quite safe to theorize that the ppr rate has slowed.

 

[arte]

For those of you who think processing of September AORs is slow... It's only been two months...
Some applicants from June or July are still waiting for PPR, and that's normal because it's still within 6 months processing time...

And if you're not seeing any update, do know there might not be any update at all until PPR!
Like I said in many previous posts, the status page is extremely unreliable in determining the stage at which one's application is.
The so-called IP1/IP2/etc hold no bearing whatsoever in determining if your application is currently being processed for eligibility, criminality, or security, or any other stage. It's pure speculation!

Many applicants, including myself, have been in the so-called IP2 status since AOR and has never changed, and they got PPR with no problem. Some others were BGC as "Not Applicable" since AOR, never got an update for 6 months, but still got PPR.
Some have been "stuck" in so-called IP1 forever, but got the nice surprise of receiving PPR one sweet morning, without ever seeing so-called IP2 status.

I urge every single one of you to stop worrying about status not changing, thinking that your application is not moving. Don't forget that if you passed your medicals, R10 is very likely to be passed as well as it's processed before medicals, and application will therefore have moved to the next stages. So it is moving!

Also, it doesn't matter at all which visa office your application is at, as you may be told it's location X today, but gets moved to location Y tomorrow. It was important a long time ago when PR applications were paper based, and was kind of a relevant information because it was likely to stick in one location. But now, with Express Entry, all applications are digital, and can get moved around from office to office for efficiency reasons if a visa office is too busy! You might start in CIO Sydney, then moved to Ottawa, then moved to LVO, etc... They can do so in just one click from their end, so it's not really moving.

For detailed information, I invited you all to read a post by @legalfalcon about this.
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/november-2018-aor-join-here.592753/

All the best to all!

Agree to the points mentioned here.
There a few things which I would like to point out as well. If some of us here are like me; the story is as follows:

I decided to move to Canada after so much thought & procrastination and also based on my friend who moved to Canada who got his PR approved in 60days last year. For many reasons I decided to delay my PR application by one year and I keep kicking myself for doing that. So I had a best case scenario and worst case scenario (back up plan) in mind for planning the next steps after PR approval. Best case scenario was to have the PR approved in 60 days like my friend and worst case scenario being approved in 6 months. (Note-PR refusal is not in my scenarios!!) . I am at ~80 days mark now and getting very anxious that my best case scenario is out of question and I am in the uncertainty phase per my plan. A lot of us are going through that here; hence all this worry, anxiety, frustration and so on and so forth. People who are waiting from June, July, Aug everybody has worries and so are Sep AOR's.

 

[Peacekeeper87]

No comment on the logic or the conclusion, but still, I couldn't resist myself form replying seeing the word "Statistics"

Firstly, myimmitracker is one of the reliable source of data. Statistical analysis include analysis of sample data which does not necessarily include or cover all data, and the sample size on myimmitracker is quite enough.

Secondly, analysis completely ignores how accurate and complete September applications are; True, but it also ignores such data of previous months AORs. How can you be sure that there are more incomplete / inaccurate applicants in Sept. when you does not the have any such data. Do not make poor assumptions.

Thirdly, Yes it is not norm that application should be processed in three month but that does but refrains anyone from making any claim, just like you made the claim "the proportion of applications needing additional reviews is greater for September than for June, and maybe all applications from June were perfectly complete"

We all gathered over here are in "waiting phase". Lets be supportive to each other.

Thank you for your elaborate and constructive response. My thoughts to your reply below.

Firstly, myimmitracker is one of the reliable source of data. Statistical analysis include analysis of sample data which does not necessarily include or cover all data, and the sample size on myimmitracker is quite enough.
Sample size is indeed far larger than needed. Cannot argue with the fact that a survey cannot cover all parameters. But in the face of numerous variables on which not only we do not have control over, but also don't even know how they're managed, so it's very hard to nullify the uncertainty and unknown behind the process itself being fast or slow. Which is why I'm questioning the claim of "slow". I think "slow" should be considered carefully, if processing time is above 6 months, as applications are not treated as FIFO.

Secondly, analysis completely ignores how accurate and complete September applications are; True, but it also ignores such data of previous months AORs. How can you be sure that there are more incomplete / inaccurate applicants in Sept. when you does not the have any such data. Do not make poor assumptions.
Pay attention to what you read. I have never made such assumption or claim, read again. I specifically wrote that because I don't have such data, and cannot claim that September AORs are just as complete/incomplete as previous months AORs. That was my exact point. Each application is different, and the initially suggested analysis ignores how complete (or incomplete) September applications are. My specific point is that we don't have that data, hence hard to compare.

Thirdly, Yes it is not norm that application should be processed in three month but that does but refrains anyone from making any claim, just like you made the claim "the proportion of applications needing additional reviews is greater for September than for June, and maybe all applications from June were perfectly complete"
Again, either you don't read properly, or misunderstand what I say. I never claimed such thing. So I'll just paste my statement here below with re-focusing on wording for your convenience.
"maybe the proportion of applications needing additional reviews is greater for September than for June, and maybe all applications from June were perfectly complete."
I'm bringing possibilities to the table which seem to be ignored often.

You're right we're all in a waiting phase, which is exactly why I'm attempting to encourage people to focus on the generous 6 months time frame, and that everything is fine as long as we don't go beyond this threshold.

Cheers.

 

[Ismaili-Berber]

Does every notes come w this assignment date?

yep and it seems the agent in most of the case touch the file in around those due dates.
so i guess most of us will have an update in december.

 

[Peacekeeper87]

Agree to the points mentioned here.
There a few things which I would like to point out as well. If some of us here are like me; the story is as follows:

I decided to move to Canada after so much thought & procrastination and also based on my friend who moved to Canada who got his PR approved in 60days last year. For many reasons I decided to delay my PR application by one year and I keep kicking myself for doing that. So I had a best case scenario and worst case scenario (back up plan) in mind for planning the next steps after PR approval. Best case scenario was to have the PR approved in 60 days like my friend and worst case scenario being approved in 6 months. (Note-PR refusal is not in my scenarios!!) . I am at ~80 days mark now and getting very anxious that my best case scenario is out of question and I am in the uncertainty phase per my plan. A lot of us are going through that here; hence all this worry, anxiety, frustration and so on and so forth. People who are waiting from June, July, Aug everybody has worries and so are Sep AOR's.

Totally understandable!
Frankly, I don't know how some applicants have their applications processed in 2 months.
But like I said in a previous post, I really think it would help if applicants focus more on the possibility of 6 months rather than 2 months or so.
We all want a best case scenario, but a 4-6 months scenario is kind more likely based on IRCC reports.
My whole point is that I see so many people starting to worry after 2-3 months, but it's really very soon!
Let's try to realise how lucky we are to have the possibility to apply through Express Entry... Paper based applications used to take something like 1.5 years! 6 months will come around before you know it.
All the best!

 

[Archavin89]

yep and it seems the agent in most of the case touch the file in around those due dates.
so i guess most of us will have an update in december.

Oh, I see.... nice!

Thx

 

[sameer91]

Hi Andy, Please add me to the september 2018 AOR whatsapp group.

+1-815-593-8715

 

[bhu1990]

Thank you for your elaborate and constructive response. My thoughts to your reply below.

Firstly, myimmitracker is one of the reliable source of data. Statistical analysis include analysis of sample data which does not necessarily include or cover all data, and the sample size on myimmitracker is quite enough.
Sample size is indeed far larger than needed. Cannot argue with the fact that a survey cannot cover all parameters. But in the face of numerous variables on which not only we do not have control over, but also don't even know how they're managed, so it's very hard to nullify the uncertainty and unknown behind the process itself being fast or slow. Which is why I'm questioning the claim of "slow". I think "slow" should be considered carefully, if processing time is above 6 months, as applications are not treated as FIFO.

Secondly, analysis completely ignores how accurate and complete September applications are; True, but it also ignores such data of previous months AORs. How can you be sure that there are more incomplete / inaccurate applicants in Sept. when you does not the have any such data. Do not make poor assumptions.
Pay attention to what you read. I have never made such assumption or claim, read again. I specifically wrote that because I don't have such data, and cannot claim that September AORs are just as complete/incomplete as previous months AORs. That was my exact point. Each application is different, and the initially suggested analysis ignores how complete (or incomplete) September applications are. My specific point is that we don't have that data, hence hard to compare.

Thirdly, Yes it is not norm that application should be processed in three month but that does but refrains anyone from making any claim, just like you made the claim "the proportion of applications needing additional reviews is greater for September than for June, and maybe all applications from June were perfectly complete"
Again, either you don't read properly, or misunderstand what I say. I never claimed such thing. So I'll just paste my statement here below with re-focusing on wording for your convenience.
"maybe the proportion of applications needing additional reviews is greater for September than for June, and maybe all applications from June were perfectly complete."
I'm bringing possibilities to the table which seem to be ignored often.

You're right we're all in a waiting phase, which is exactly why I'm attempting to encourage people to focus on the generous 6 months time frame, and that everything is fine as long as we don't go beyond this threshold.

Cheers.

I am sorry, my eyes just ignored the word "maybe", coz the following words were eyecatchy. The idea of encouraging us all to focus on 6 months time frame is really good and you did it very well in your previous post. But certainly the response to analysis or application being slow was not appealing.

I agree with you, everything is fine as long as we don't go beyond this threshold. Also, we don't have much options to accelerate the process ever after crossing threshold.

Cheers.

 

[Peacekeeper87]

I am sorry, my eyes just ignored the word "maybe", coz the following words were eyecatchy. The idea of encouraging us all to focus on 6 months time frame is really good and you did it very well in your previous post. But certainly the response to analysis or application being slow was not appealing.

I agree with you, everything is fine as long as we don't go beyond this threshold. Also, we don't have much options to accelerate the process ever after crossing threshold.

Cheers.

No worries, yeah words sometimes trick our reading.
My apologies if it appeared abrupt by insisting on the idea of slow/fast, not my intention.
All the best to all! Hopefully a prompt PPR to everyone.

 

[abhijit404]

Nobody knows that. All we know is it gets recorded in GCMS. It sure makes them angry though so tread carefully. The first 2 times I had friendly agent. The third time I had an agent who didn't have a Canadian accent/french accent unlike the first two times. Man!!! I felt like a suspect of Crime Patrol whom Sanjeev Tyagi or Nissar Khan were grilling. Why are you calling? How many days has it been since you submitted the application? Why are you worried? What's wrong? Dude it had nothing to do with me, thats literally how the call began. I am in IP2 for last 3 weeks with eligibility and criminality Passed Security not initiated file last touched November 6. I had read of approved cases waiting for PPR for weeks... I was calling in the hope that my file is approved cause you know then I can sit back and relax ..... Anyway she did answer my questions but security had still not started... I have decided not to call anymore and order GCMS notes once I hit 120 days mark... Super frustrating

Thank you !

Got a email from vancouver visa office for landing interview . hope no more PPR for me

 

[BA2LAMAZ]

Thank you !

Got a email from vancouver visa office for landing interview . hope no more PPR for me

Congrats! Please share your timeline

 

[abhijit404]

Congrats! Please share your timeline

CEC Inland
AOR-Sep 9th
Medical Pass/ IP2 - Oct 3rd
Landing interview - Nov 29

 

[singhsinghmandeep]

CEC Inland
AOR-Sep 9th
Medical Pass/ IP2 - Oct 3rd
Landing interview - Nov 29

Why they are asking for an interview?