Ray of Hope - 94th Draw

[Reddiered07]

Hi Guys and gals. I have been a silent observer of the forum for the last 1.5 years and its time I contribute something to you people as I have been reading your wonderful and inspirational posts on your struggles, rejoices, pain that you have undergone to make it to Canada

Here is my prediction for my next draw on July 11th.

As on June 20th
>600 - 209
450 to 600 - 1057
441 to 450 - 1731

As on June 8th
>600 - 317
450 to 600 - 2596
441 to 450 - 1092

On Average Incoming Per day
>600 - Calculations - Jun 13th Draw - CRS was 451 so no was leftover Hence 209/7 (209 profiles created in 7 days between June 13 & June 20) =30 profiles per day Approx
450 to 600 - Calculations - Jun 13th Draw - CRS was 451 so very profiles were leftover Hence 1057/7 (1057 profiles created in 7 days between June 13 & June 20) =151 profiles per day Approx
441 to 450 - Calculations (Jun 13th Draw - CRS was 451 so all profiles will be considered. There were 639 profiles created between June 8th and June 20th. Hence, on an average 639/12 = 53 profiles were created per day

Total Above 441 per day: 234

Estimated no of Profiles Above 441 after June 25th Draw: As of June 20 pool data, there were 2997 profiles above 441. Another 936 profiles might be added since June 20th(234 * 4). Total Profiles: 3933 on 25th June. Draw Size: 3750. Left Overs = 3933-3750=183

Points to Note: There was an IELTS result on June 15th (Examination Took Place on June 2nd)

Next Possible Draw Date: July 11th

No of Profiles that will be in above 441:
Scenario-1 - 200 profiles per day above 441 from June 25th to July 11th (16 days)
New Profiles - 200*16 =3200
Existing Profiles - 183
Total Profiles - 3383

Scenario-2 - 180 profiles per day above 441 from June 25th to July 11th (16 days)
New Profiles - 180*16 =2880
Existing Profiles - 183
Total Profiles - 3063

Estimated Profiles in 440: (As on July 11th)
Calculation: There was a draw on May 23rd with a Cut-off 440 with December 30 Tie Breaker rule. Hence, almost all profiles in 2017 at 440 were flushed out. Profiles created between 31st December and 11th July need to be estimated.
Total no of profiles created in the 190 days between 31st dec and 11th july : 380

How did I arrive at 380?
Based on the weighted averages on a daily basis over the last couple of draws there are 29 profiles being created in the range 431 to 440.
Assuming that 50% of the 29 profiles belong to the score 432,435 and 438. There will be 7 scores which will share the remaining 14 profiles per day which makes it 2 profiles per day on an average at 440. I am making such an assumption since the majority of the people fall in the bachelor's degree with 3+ years of experience and any combination of IELTS above CLB 9 can fetch these scores only.

Estimated Profiles in 439: (As on July 11th)
Calculation: The draw that happened on November 15th, 2017 had a CRS of 439 and there were no tie-break rules at that time. Profiles created between 16th November and 11th July need to be estimated.
Total no of profiles created in the 236 days between 31st dec and 11th july : 472

Estimated CRS Score on July 11th Draw
Scenario-1
Total Profiles created
Above 441 : 3383
440 : 380
Total 3763
Estimated Draw Size : 3750
Estimated score for Scenario - 1: 440 with Tie breaker rule applying on profiles created in May or June

Scenario-1
Total Profiles created
Above 441 : 3063
440 : 380
439 : 472
Total 3915
Estimated Draw Size : 3750
Estimated score for Scenario - 2: 439 with Tie breaker rule applying on profiles created in Jan or Feb


Hence, I am predicting 440 with profiles created in either May or June or 439 with profiles created in either Jan or Feb.
I personally want the score to go below 440 for the first time and break the stereotypes of CIC issuing ITA's to only 440 and above profiles
BTW, I am 438. Lets hope for the best

I agree with all of your analysis except that 380 left on 440..in those 190 days..people with score less than 435 might have increased there scores to higher than 435..may be there are around 500 left on 440!

 

[Abhishek.s1990]

See one thing is sure that the cut off for 11th July is 440 unless they cook up NOC wise draws or something . What I am suggesting is that pnp processing takes around 3 months so the ones in March might have been processed and will be reflecting in the July draw . Add to that the IELTS resukts coming out between 11th and 25th .

 

[lavi13]

+/- 2 makes me laugh!! That's not a prediction

With IRCC, you can't really predict things. They always find a way to amaze you

 

[ravishankar21]

I agree with all of your analysis except that 380 left on 440..in those 190 days..people with score less than 435 might have increased there scores to higher than 435..may be there are around 500 left on 440!

I can understand from where your coming and I did think about it while working out this prediction analysis. I would like to propose an alternate hypothesis to your claim that people in the lower range (below 440) would have tried to increase their scores to 440 and thus, there will be more profiles than the estimated no.

Firstly, people with the score 440 would have applied for PNP’s, Got better IELTS results, Cleared their french tests and Got LMIA approved Job offers etc. which would have boosted their scores to more than 440. These profiles were not considered for the estimation of the no’s

Secondly, there will be profiles where the score would have dropped down to below 440 primarily due to the age factor

Hence, I do strongly believe that people would have increased their scores to 440 but I also believe at the same time profiles in the 440 would have moved to a different score in equal proportions. Score will always be balanced.

It might be completely irrelevant to the topic we are discussing but
Energy can neither be created nor destroyed it can only be transferred
In our case the average no of profiles created in a Day will remain the same for the different scores.

 

[vis14ndreamz]

My CRS is 447 and I am anxiously waiting for the July draw. Any possibility for an ITA !

 

[navinball]

My CRS is 447 and I am anxiously waiting for the July draw. Any possibility for an ITA !

nope your score is too low. have you considered immigration to india? it is the worlds 3rd or 4th largest economy and is in need of human capital

 

[vis14ndreamz]

nope your score is too low. have you considered immigration to india? it is the worlds 3rd or 4th largest economy and is in need of human capital

wish I could immigrate to India. but no job prospects for me

 

[navinball]

wish I could immigrate to India. but no job prospects for me

i was just kidding, 447 will get you in the next draw

 

[at4446]

Hi Guys and gals. I have been a silent observer of the forum for the last 1.5 years and its time I contribute something to you people as I have been reading your wonderful and inspirational posts on your struggles, rejoices, pain that you have undergone to make it to Canada

Here is my prediction for my next draw on July 11th.

As on June 20th
>600 - 209
450 to 600 - 1057
441 to 450 - 1731

As on June 8th
>600 - 317
450 to 600 - 2596
441 to 450 - 1092

On Average Incoming Per day
>600 - Calculations - Jun 13th Draw - CRS was 451 so no was leftover Hence 209/7 (209 profiles created in 7 days between June 13 & June 20) =30 profiles per day Approx
450 to 600 - Calculations - Jun 13th Draw - CRS was 451 so very profiles were leftover Hence 1057/7 (1057 profiles created in 7 days between June 13 & June 20) =151 profiles per day Approx
441 to 450 - Calculations (Jun 13th Draw - CRS was 451 so all profiles will be considered. There were 639 profiles created between June 8th and June 20th. Hence, on an average 639/12 = 53 profiles were created per day

Total Above 441 per day: 234

Estimated no of Profiles Above 441 after June 25th Draw: As of June 20 pool data, there were 2997 profiles above 441. Another 936 profiles might be added since June 20th(234 * 4). Total Profiles: 3933 on 25th June. Draw Size: 3750. Left Overs = 3933-3750=183

Points to Note: There was an IELTS result on June 15th (Examination Took Place on June 2nd)

Next Possible Draw Date: July 11th

No of Profiles that will be in above 441:
Scenario-1 - 200 profiles per day above 441 from June 25th to July 11th (16 days)
New Profiles - 200*16 =3200
Existing Profiles - 183
Total Profiles - 3383

Scenario-2 - 180 profiles per day above 441 from June 25th to July 11th (16 days)
New Profiles - 180*16 =2880
Existing Profiles - 183
Total Profiles - 3063

Estimated Profiles in 440: (As on July 11th)
Calculation: There was a draw on May 23rd with a Cut-off 440 with December 30 Tie Breaker rule. Hence, almost all profiles in 2017 at 440 were flushed out. Profiles created between 31st December and 11th July need to be estimated.
Total no of profiles created in the 190 days between 31st dec and 11th july : 380

How did I arrive at 380?
Based on the weighted averages on a daily basis over the last couple of draws there are 29 profiles being created in the range 431 to 440.
Assuming that 50% of the 29 profiles belong to the score 432,435 and 438. There will be 7 scores which will share the remaining 14 profiles per day which makes it 2 profiles per day on an average at 440. I am making such an assumption since the majority of the people fall in the bachelor's degree with 3+ years of experience and any combination of IELTS above CLB 9 can fetch these scores only.

Estimated Profiles in 439: (As on July 11th)
Calculation: The draw that happened on November 15th, 2017 had a CRS of 439 and there were no tie-break rules at that time. Profiles created between 16th November and 11th July need to be estimated.
Total no of profiles created in the 236 days between 31st dec and 11th july : 472

Estimated CRS Score on July 11th Draw
Scenario-1
Total Profiles created
Above 441 : 3383
440 : 380
Total 3763
Estimated Draw Size : 3750
Estimated score for Scenario - 1: 440 with Tie breaker rule applying on profiles created in May or June

Scenario-1
Total Profiles created
Above 441 : 3063
440 : 380
439 : 472
Total 3915
Estimated Draw Size : 3750
Estimated score for Scenario - 2: 439 with Tie breaker rule applying on profiles created in Jan or Feb


Hence, I am predicting 440 with profiles created in either May or June or 439 with profiles created in either Jan or Feb.
I personally want the score to go below 440 for the first time and break the stereotypes of CIC issuing ITA's to only 440 and above profiles
BTW, I am 438. Lets hope for the best

EXPERTS: what do you think of this amazing analysis? realistic ?

 

[hellotipsy]

Prediction for this week's draw will be 439-440 for 3750

 

[vj83]

What will be the expected CRS cutoff in 25 july draw. Any chances of huge variation like 450 types suddenly or it will stick to trend of +/-2

 

[romrumrira]

Good luck guys. We will have draw for this Wednesday

 

[Reddiered07]

Are there many pnps 600 points issued on 5th July? I found a surge in traffic to EE account!

https://www.cicnews.com/2018/07/saskatchewan-express-entry-reaches-its-intake-limit-in-less-than-24-hours-0710883.html#gs.fZp5MXs

I think this caused that spurge..experts of pnp, can you please let us know whether all the 500 candidates got 600 points or will it take time? If they received points already then that is not a good news!

 

[Reddiered07]

I can understand from where your coming and I did think about it while working out this prediction analysis. I would like to propose an alternate hypothesis to your claim that people in the lower range (below 440) would have tried to increase their scores to 440 and thus, there will be more profiles than the estimated no.

Firstly, people with the score 440 would have applied for PNP’s, Got better IELTS results, Cleared their french tests and Got LMIA approved Job offers etc. which would have boosted their scores to more than 440. These profiles were not considered for the estimation of the no’s

Secondly, there will be profiles where the score would have dropped down to below 440 primarily due to the age factor

Hence, I do strongly believe that people would have increased their scores to 440 but I also believe at the same time profiles in the 440 would have moved to a different score in equal proportions. Score will always be balanced.

It might be completely irrelevant to the topic we are discussing but
Energy can neither be created nor destroyed it can only be transferred
In our case the average no of profiles created in a Day will remain the same for the different scores.

I hope you are 100% right!

 

[YPS]

https://www.cicnews.com/2018/07/saskatchewan-express-entry-reaches-its-intake-limit-in-less-than-24-hours-0710883.html#gs.fZp5MXs

I think this caused that spurge..experts of pnp, can you please let us know whether all the 500 candidates got 600 points or will it take time? If they received points already then that is not a good news!

It will take time, as of now they submitted the profile which will be reviewed and then they will be nominated.