Ray of Hope - 94th Draw
- Thread starter hope2018
- Start date
https://www.youtube.com/user/jamiecastleden/videos
Go through all the listening step-by-step guide videos. They will help you immensely as the video is not just about tips, it is real exam taken. The person is a native speaker hence the techniques he uses, you will not find anywhere else. This is a very low profile channel so not many find it or even if they find it, they will not pay much attention. After watching those videos and using same techniques, my listening score never dropped below 8 in 4 attempts without 100% concentration. You can check my signature for that. There are also step-by-step videos for reading but they are only for Academic IELTS. Good luck.
Should be 441 though in the next draw it might jump to 445 + again+/- 2 makes me laugh!! That's not a prediction
there are no results coming out till 11th of july but for the draw after that 24th there us a result coming out .Add to that the pnp nomimations that were sent out in march I beleive the score is bound to go up though it will fall again gradually
So how many new entrants above 440 in 14 days from 11th to 25th you are assuming? With all these factors included? 3000? 3500?
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And you are saying that march pnps most of them got 600 points from June 25th to July 11th?
Hi Guys and gals. I have been a silent observer of the forum for the last 1.5 years and its time I contribute something to you people as I have been reading your wonderful and inspirational posts on your struggles, rejoices, pain that you have undergone to make it to Canada
Here is my prediction for my next draw on July 11th.
As on June 20th
>600 - 209
450 to 600 - 1057
441 to 450 - 1731
As on June 8th
>600 - 317
450 to 600 - 2596
441 to 450 - 1092
On Average Incoming Per day
>600 - Calculations - Jun 13th Draw - CRS was 451 so no was leftover Hence 209/7 (209 profiles created in 7 days between June 13 & June 20) =30 profiles per day Approx
450 to 600 - Calculations - Jun 13th Draw - CRS was 451 so very profiles were leftover Hence 1057/7 (1057 profiles created in 7 days between June 13 & June 20) =151 profiles per day Approx
441 to 450 - Calculations (Jun 13th Draw - CRS was 451 so all profiles will be considered. There were 639 profiles created between June 8th and June 20th. Hence, on an average 639/12 = 53 profiles were created per day
Total Above 441 per day: 234
Estimated no of Profiles Above 441 after June 25th Draw: As of June 20 pool data, there were 2997 profiles above 441. Another 936 profiles might be added since June 20th(234 * 4). Total Profiles: 3933 on 25th June. Draw Size: 3750. Left Overs = 3933-3750=183
Points to Note: There was an IELTS result on June 15th (Examination Took Place on June 2nd)
Next Possible Draw Date: July 11th
No of Profiles that will be in above 441:
Scenario-1 - 200 profiles per day above 441 from June 25th to July 11th (16 days)
New Profiles - 200*16 =3200
Existing Profiles - 183
Total Profiles - 3383
Scenario-2 - 180 profiles per day above 441 from June 25th to July 11th (16 days)
New Profiles - 180*16 =2880
Existing Profiles - 183
Total Profiles - 3063
Estimated Profiles in 440: (As on July 11th)
Calculation: There was a draw on May 23rd with a Cut-off 440 with December 30 Tie Breaker rule. Hence, almost all profiles in 2017 at 440 were flushed out. Profiles created between 31st December and 11th July need to be estimated.
Total no of profiles created in the 190 days between 31st dec and 11th july : 380
How did I arrive at 380?
Based on the weighted averages on a daily basis over the last couple of draws there are 29 profiles being created in the range 431 to 440.
Assuming that 50% of the 29 profiles belong to the score 432,435 and 438. There will be 7 scores which will share the remaining 14 profiles per day which makes it 2 profiles per day on an average at 440. I am making such an assumption since the majority of the people fall in the bachelor's degree with 3+ years of experience and any combination of IELTS above CLB 9 can fetch these scores only.
Estimated Profiles in 439: (As on July 11th)
Calculation: The draw that happened on November 15th, 2017 had a CRS of 439 and there were no tie-break rules at that time. Profiles created between 16th November and 11th July need to be estimated.
Total no of profiles created in the 236 days between 31st dec and 11th july : 472
Estimated CRS Score on July 11th Draw
Scenario-1
Total Profiles created
Above 441 : 3383
440 : 380
Total 3763
Estimated Draw Size : 3750
Estimated score for Scenario - 1: 440 with Tie breaker rule applying on profiles created in May or June
Scenario-1
Total Profiles created
Above 441 : 3063
440 : 380
439 : 472
Total 3915
Estimated Draw Size : 3750
Estimated score for Scenario - 2: 439 with Tie breaker rule applying on profiles created in Jan or Feb
Hence, I am predicting 440 with profiles created in either May or June or 439 with profiles created in either Jan or Feb.
I personally want the score to go below 440 for the first time and break the stereotypes of CIC issuing ITA's to only 440 and above profiles
BTW, I am 438. Lets hope for the best
Here is my prediction for my next draw on July 11th.
As on June 20th
>600 - 209
450 to 600 - 1057
441 to 450 - 1731
As on June 8th
>600 - 317
450 to 600 - 2596
441 to 450 - 1092
On Average Incoming Per day
>600 - Calculations - Jun 13th Draw - CRS was 451 so no was leftover Hence 209/7 (209 profiles created in 7 days between June 13 & June 20) =30 profiles per day Approx
450 to 600 - Calculations - Jun 13th Draw - CRS was 451 so very profiles were leftover Hence 1057/7 (1057 profiles created in 7 days between June 13 & June 20) =151 profiles per day Approx
441 to 450 - Calculations (Jun 13th Draw - CRS was 451 so all profiles will be considered. There were 639 profiles created between June 8th and June 20th. Hence, on an average 639/12 = 53 profiles were created per day
Total Above 441 per day: 234
Estimated no of Profiles Above 441 after June 25th Draw: As of June 20 pool data, there were 2997 profiles above 441. Another 936 profiles might be added since June 20th(234 * 4). Total Profiles: 3933 on 25th June. Draw Size: 3750. Left Overs = 3933-3750=183
Points to Note: There was an IELTS result on June 15th (Examination Took Place on June 2nd)
Next Possible Draw Date: July 11th
No of Profiles that will be in above 441:
Scenario-1 - 200 profiles per day above 441 from June 25th to July 11th (16 days)
New Profiles - 200*16 =3200
Existing Profiles - 183
Total Profiles - 3383
Scenario-2 - 180 profiles per day above 441 from June 25th to July 11th (16 days)
New Profiles - 180*16 =2880
Existing Profiles - 183
Total Profiles - 3063
Estimated Profiles in 440: (As on July 11th)
Calculation: There was a draw on May 23rd with a Cut-off 440 with December 30 Tie Breaker rule. Hence, almost all profiles in 2017 at 440 were flushed out. Profiles created between 31st December and 11th July need to be estimated.
Total no of profiles created in the 190 days between 31st dec and 11th july : 380
How did I arrive at 380?
Based on the weighted averages on a daily basis over the last couple of draws there are 29 profiles being created in the range 431 to 440.
Assuming that 50% of the 29 profiles belong to the score 432,435 and 438. There will be 7 scores which will share the remaining 14 profiles per day which makes it 2 profiles per day on an average at 440. I am making such an assumption since the majority of the people fall in the bachelor's degree with 3+ years of experience and any combination of IELTS above CLB 9 can fetch these scores only.
Estimated Profiles in 439: (As on July 11th)
Calculation: The draw that happened on November 15th, 2017 had a CRS of 439 and there were no tie-break rules at that time. Profiles created between 16th November and 11th July need to be estimated.
Total no of profiles created in the 236 days between 31st dec and 11th july : 472
Estimated CRS Score on July 11th Draw
Scenario-1
Total Profiles created
Above 441 : 3383
440 : 380
Total 3763
Estimated Draw Size : 3750
Estimated score for Scenario - 1: 440 with Tie breaker rule applying on profiles created in May or June
Scenario-1
Total Profiles created
Above 441 : 3063
440 : 380
439 : 472
Total 3915
Estimated Draw Size : 3750
Estimated score for Scenario - 2: 439 with Tie breaker rule applying on profiles created in Jan or Feb
Hence, I am predicting 440 with profiles created in either May or June or 439 with profiles created in either Jan or Feb.
I personally want the score to go below 440 for the first time and break the stereotypes of CIC issuing ITA's to only 440 and above profiles
BTW, I am 438. Lets hope for the best
Waoh! Why have you being silent all this while? I like you very meticulous analysis. Please keep it up.
