Ray of Hope - 94th Draw

[abhishek_89]

What's ur prediction for the next draw?

If the draw happens on July 11th, the cut off could be 440.

 

[canadajay]

If the draw happens on July 11th, the cut off could be 440.

That feels very optimistic

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

If the draw happens on July 11th, the cut off could be 440.

Okay!!! Why won't/can't it drop with as much as the same margin it did for the last draw,considering no ielts result and its a 2week gap?
I don't quite understand. There was a 3week gap, it rose to 451. Then after a 2week gap it droped to 442 which no one was expecting. Shouldn't we witness wider drop subsequently?

 

[Diptinaik7]

Okay!!! Why won't/can't it drop with as much as the same margin it did for the last draw,considering no ielts result and its a 2week gap?
I don't quite understand. There was a 3week gap, it rose to 451. Then after a 2week gap it droped to 442 which no one was expecting. Shouldn't we witness wider drop subsequently?[/QUOT
Even I feel the same.provided they keep ITA on higher side

 

[Diptinaik7]

Okay!!! Why won't/can't it drop with as much as the same margin it did for the last draw,considering no ielts result and its a 2week gap?
I don't quite understand. There was a 3week gap, it rose to 451. Then after a 2week gap it droped to 442 which no one was expecting. Shouldn't we witness wider drop subsequently?

Even I feel the same.provided they keep the ITAs on higher side

 

[at4446]

If the draw happens on July 11th, the cut off could be 440.

I am at 440 and I hope it comes to 440 but I highly think it is gonno go down to 441 only! we need some sort of calculation to be done!

 

[canadajay]

I am at 440 and I hope it comes to 440 but I highly think it is gonno go down to 441 only! we need some sort of calculation to be done!

No calculation can predict these guys

 

[at4446]

No calculation can predict these guys

in past draws calculations were sort of accurate except the last draw! I personally thought it would be 446 or 445!
doing ielts on Saturday and I need very high score to improve my scores! FML

 

[Reddiered07]

in past draws calculations were sort of accurate except the last draw! I personally thought it would be 446 or 445!
doing ielts on Saturday and I need very high score to improve my scores! FML

Last draw cut-off would have been 446/445 if the draw had happened on Wednesday instead of Monday!! So nothing strange happened in the last draw so that we need to be as excited as people were seeing 442! Because if it had happened on Wednesday there would be an addition 450 people in the pool above 440!

 

[monkeyspanner]

Last draw cut-off would have been 446/445 if the draw had happened on Wednesday instead of Monday!! So nothing strange happened in the last draw so that we need to be as excited as people were seeing 442! Because if it had happened on Wednesday there would be an addition 450 people in the pool above 440!

If it reverts to wednesday it will be a 16day interval and that will be reflected in the points for the draw. A lot of the predictions here are pretty good apart from those who think it will be low 430s any time soon.

 

[samikdg]

Okay!!! Why won't/can't it drop with as much as the same margin it did for the last draw,considering no ielts result and its a 2week gap?
I don't quite understand. There was a 3week gap, it rose to 451. Then after a 2week gap it droped to 442 which no one was expecting. Shouldn't we witness wider drop subsequently?

The main reason for that is last draw was at an interval of 12 days, whereas this draw will be at an interval of 16 days (assuming 11th July draw).

 

[monkeyspanner]

The main reason for that is last draw was at an interval of 12 days, whereas this draw will be at an interval of 16 days (assuming 11th July draw).

Additionally there have been no draws under 440 since November so there is a large accumulation of profiles sub 440.

 

[samikdg]

Yes, I took a break, was busy with IELTS prep! Moreover, I found this thread with less posts on analysis and predictions!

Good to hear about your IELTS! Have you taken it already? On the number of entrants per day, 260/day was for the May 24-June 8 period, not sure if you can/should extrapolate it till June 13th. But I also hope your analysis is correct and the number is again coming down towards 200/day
I don't know how to upload a picture here, is it possible to create a table in Excel and then copy-paste it here, the formatting may get jumbled up but that's alright. Interested to see your analysis

 

[Jaywalker]

Last draw cut-off would have been 446/445 if the draw had happened on Wednesday instead of Monday!! So nothing strange happened in the last draw so that we need to be as excited as people were seeing 442! Because if it had happened on Wednesday there would be an addition 450 people in the pool above 440!

Yes there would have been additional 400 odd people in 2 days. The 441-450 bracket AFAIK is skewed heavily towards the lower side and therefore the CRS would not have crossed 443 or max 444 even on Wednesday.

 

[ain88]

I'm at crs 435 again gosh....could be 443 if I was able to score 1 more point from my English test, keep being this way all this year, I think I maxed scoring in English test. so tired of trying this