Ray of Hope - 93rd Draw

[monkeyspanner]

Jan 10-2750 ita-446
jan 24-2750 ita-444
feb 7-3000 ita-442
feb 21-3000 ita-442
march 14-3000 ita-456
march 26-3000 ita-446
april 11 -3500 ita-444
april 25-3500 ita-441
may 9-3500 ita-441
may 23- 3500 ita-440
June 13-3750- 451
Let us look at the statistics- when the draw took place on March 14 i.e after 21 days approx the score increased to 456 hence increase by 14 points. This points further dropped by 10 in the next draw and a drop of 1 or 2 points was seen in the following draws until June 13 again after 21 days the points increased to 451. A total of 35250 itas has been issued. Canada is targeting approximately 80-81k applicants so that comes to approx 45k ita which is still to be issued. The candidates in 431-440 are 7800 approx and above 440 approx 2500. so I believe that the score would definitely drop in the coming draws. I hope it falls down to 430s at least.

Just a few additional thoughts.
-When you calculate another 45K ITAs. Some ITAs are declined or expire. So should we expect rising ITAs or are IRCC filling the PR targets by reducing PR application backlogs or possibly a higher proportion of PR applications are successful.
-Yes the CRS points dropped by 10 between March 14th & 26th but that was a 12 day interval.
-Yes the CRS points dropped by 2 between March 26th & April 11th a 16 day interval but this may have been fueled by an increase in ITAs by 500.
-The following 3 draws were virtually stable although it looks like 3500 ITAs were reducing points very slightly.
-As the ITAs increased by 250 on the last draw the points would likely have been higher than 451 if ITAs had not been increased.
- Assuming 3750 ITAs and 2 week intervals we should see a reduction in points above 440 but impacting the sub 440 range which has a backlog of around 700-800 profiles per CRS point will be slow without a significant increases in ITAs issued.
Good luck all.

 

[Diptinaik7]

There's also a backlog created as a result of the delay in the last draw. Who knows how long it would take for that backlog to be cleared before another delay in draws.

You guys are only seeing the number of candidates being added..The stats also include number of candidates falling out as a result of expired ielts,age,other reasoms

 

[Diptinaik7]

There's also a backlog created as a result of the delay in the last draw. Who knows how long it would take for that backlog to be cleared before another delay in draws.

You guys are only seeing the number of candidates being added..The stats also include number of candidates falling out as a result of expired ielts,age etc

 

[Metalhead_666]

Could you please guide on the course type and university you chose? Is it necessary to have this PG- diploma in sync with work experience?

Try for a one year course eg: International Business Management from a College and not a University. Universities are kind of expensive here! It will not only give you points for the education, but also give you a Post Grad work permit for a year that will help you to boost the points.

 

[Metalhead_666]

Has anyone noticed the alarming influx of newcomers with 450+ between 24th May and 8th June? Around 4000 had 441+ on 8th June. Disappointing for us, to say the least. Let's say if there were around 5250 candidates above 441 on 13th June, and 3750 got ITA, 1500 still remained in the pool after the draw Even a bi-weekly draw of 3750 ITAs will fail to bring ithe cut-off down if high-scorers kept entering the pool at this rate. I really hope this was just the IELTS effect that we have been discussing.

I think this is primarily due to International Students who graduated last summer and have gained one year full time work experience. You will see a similar spike in August as well as January!

 

[phoenixsong]

Any guesses to what the cut-off will be and when the draw might happen?

 

[aspirantEE]

You case is almost exactly the same as mine but birthday is December. We feel that 437 is a bit of a pipe dream so we are looking at work visa and then hopefully a year of Canadian work experience or may be an LMIA while there to increase points.

Thanks for the response.

How shall we apply for the Work Visa? I too am feeling the heat and don't think my scores will improve any further now. I already have 133/ 136 possible points out of the IELTS. Only way is to find a job (which itself looks a distant thought).

I tried applying via LinkedIn, Indeed, Dice etc. but, have not received any call despite providing a local Canada no. I have been applying since almost 3+ weeks now? Are there any consultants of whose services we can avail - that aids in securing a job. When I fill the applications, one of the imp questions there is "if I am legally eligible to work in Canada now" and this is where my application nose-dives.

 

[Diptinaik7]

Any guesses to what the cut-off will be and when the draw might happen?

Probably 27th june..I hoping for the cut off to fall

 

[phoenixsong]

Probably 27th june..I hoping for the cut off to fall

Thanks! Me too. We are at 443 and hoping we will get the ITA. Fingers-crossed.

 

[Diptinaik7]

I

Thanks! Me too. We are at 443 and hoping we will get the ITA. Fingers-crossed.

I am 438.Desp waiting for it to fall

 

[Archavin89]

Does anybody believe in a back to back draw this wed?

 

[lightning_crashes]

Does anybody believe in a back to back draw this wed?

Nice one...won’t happen most likely...but hoping it will...secretly...

 

[DS895]

Does anybody believe in a back to back draw this wed?

Yes i think that there might be back to back draw, and then 2 weeks gap and again there might be Trade skill or PNP draw.

 

[FMT]

Does anybody believe in a back to back draw this wed?

Don't think that will happen since the number of ITA issued has been increased to 3750. I see draw happening next week

 

[indpnv]

Does anybody believe in a back to back draw this wed?

Nope, I'll go back to being religious, if that happens.