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Ray of Hope - 92nd Draw

vensak

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Although the stats are pretty clear but still it doesn't make any sense to me. From the plain stat for the year 2017, it seems they approved more PR than they had to. Around 20-305k more PR were approved in 2017 than their target. However, there is a catch, as they dont have any PR target but instead have admission target so it is safe to assume that they PR issued in 2017 also had 2018 in mind. Similarly ITA and PR approval in 2018 also will have 2019 in mind. I think majority of the ITA issued in the last 5 months will result in admission in 2019 and not in 2018.

I am saying this because I think CIC knows what they are doing and there is very little probability that they would end up issuing so much more than their target. Moreover, CIC has been very methodical in their approach this year so far, which makes me believe it is all part of their calculation. If it wasn't the case then I think there would have been much less ITA up until now. Already we have 31500 ITA issued in 5 months and It is most likely going as planned.
Except that they did not knew that much what they were doing (specially first half of 2017). Why? Because 1 ITA does not equal 2 immigrants. There is the uncertainty about the family size, unique ITA (and not just those to the same person but also to the same family), then the cancellation and rejection rate and decline rate as well.
All they had were data from 2015 and 2016. and those data were distorted (too small sample from the beginning of EE where people were less informed and made more mistakes in their application, and also that big chunk of LMIA ITA which were most of the time trades).
Once they begun with increasing amount (second half of 2016 and first half of 2017), they thought to make a buffer (where they can slow down PPR release if needed). But they overdid it with that buffer a bit. So with a buffer there, there is no need for 2017 madness.
And with these numbers there might be even additional call for an ease down (as that buffer might be too big and they also have goal of 80% within 6 months).
The only good news is that there is bigger stability of the system, so it shall be easier to estimate required CRS.
The bad news is, that requred CRS will still go slightly up (because the pool of active EE profiles is still growing in a decent pace).
 

special3220

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Except that they did not knew that much what they were doing (specially first half of 2017). Why? Because 1 ITA does not equal 2 immigrants. There is the uncertainty about the family size, unique ITA (and not just those to the same person but also to the same family), then the cancellation and rejection rate and decline rate as well.
All they had were data from 2015 and 2016. and those data were distorted (too small sample from the beginning of EE where people were less informed and made more mistakes in their application, and also that big chunk of LMIA ITA which were most of the time trades).
Once they begun with increasing amount (second half of 2016 and first half of 2017), they thought to make a buffer (where they can slow down PPR release if needed). But they overdid it with that buffer a bit. So with a buffer there, there is no need for 2017 madness.
And with these numbers there might be even additional call for an ease down (as that buffer might be too big and they also have goal of 80% within 6 months).
The only good news is that there is bigger stability of the system, so it shall be easier to estimate required CRS.
The bad news is, that requred CRS will still go slightly up (because the pool of active EE profiles is still growing in a decent pace).
Really appreciate your analysis, even though they are really hard to accept but I think they are pretty accurate. In your honest opinion what do you think will be the lowest CRS this year? Ir we have already seen the lowest (440)?
 

vensak

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Agreed with @vensak moreover instead of coming up with theories that this will change that will change, I would say why not focus your energy on ensuring you do everything to increase your score notch higher.
There can be small windows of opportunities in some cases, but if then it will be rare (for example if they will be approaching holiday period and they wanted to get the double intake one week before, that that they can have nice 3 weeks of after that.)
Any major change would have to be bound with point system change (like then they introduced bonus points for certain things and lowered for others).
 
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bimale4bipeople

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There can be small windows of opportunities in some cases, but if then it will be rare (for example if they will be approaching holiday period and they wanted to get the double intake one week before, that that they can have nice 3 weeks of after that.)
Any major change would have to be bound with point system change (like then they introduced bonus points for certain things and lowered for others).
e.g. Draw# 84 on Feb 21 cut off was 442 we thought next draw will be either +/- round about the same mark.
Fast forward Draw# 85 on Mar 14 cut off ended up at 456.
And that’s why I was quoting above that the theories about the next cut off points in the next round is on such a vague imagination that these are pretty much impossible to predict.
 

vensak

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Really appreciate your analysis, even though they are really hard to accept but I think they are pretty accurate. In your honest opinion what do you think will be the lowest CRS this year? Ir we have already seen the lowest (440)?
I would say, that it is safe to predict that it will not go below 430. It can still go a bit lower (this will really depend on the pool dynamics). Also not that much.

What is happening last couple of draws is that people understood new requirement. You can see a slow down in profiles between 400 and 430. The reason is that many of those in this range are going for more points (new IELTS, French, push your sibling, get ECA and IELTS for your spouse). And of course there are also some long term arrangement for some (studying in Canada, or going after Working holiday for those who can).
Thing is, that it is achievable for a foreign Master degree holder under 30 to get 460 points (for CBL9 + age + transferable points + education), without any Canada involvement what so ever.
So then it is also manageable for many to get to 450 range (to get a second diploma, to learn French and to push your spouse in order to get there).
And of course you can do other steps (those that do benefit Canada directly), like to go for studies in Canada (after which you can get PGWP).

With that even somebody who is penalized by age (35+), can still go for more points (French and studies). Of course that approach is harsh to older folks (40+). But hard reality is, that Canada wants active tax payers in the first place.
 

lightning_crashes

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If you see the number of 441+ people in the pool from March till last draw, the number of people has been steadily decreasing with no exception!

This is the only good sign that things are moving in the right direction. Slowly! But in the right direction...

So there is hope! Good hope for the OINP HCP in the 430s and below and also good hope for 434+ to get ITA
 
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Reddiered07

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With reference to all the gloomy and scary posts regarding ITAs and PR quota etc on ROH, I just want to say that the ITAs issued in the last quarter of 2018 will not contribute to this year's PR quota. They will also get processed in 2019. So this year should be no different than the last one, however, 2019 can be a bit tighter. IRCC will try to meet it's goals by third or fourth quarter of 2019, so that most of successful applicants receive their PRs, and land in time.
This looks comfortable to me :) So I agree with you! No need to stress out and wait for every second Wednesday with hopes :)
 

abnzyr18

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Apr 11, 2018
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If you see the number of 441+ people in the pool from March till last draw, the number of people has been steadily decreasing with no exception!

This is the only good sign that things are moving in the right direction. Slowly! But in the right direction...

So there is hope! Good hope for the OINP HCP in the 430s and below and also good hope for 434+ to get ITA
Do you think the 438s will be cleared this year ?? The score is just not going below 440.
 

NOMAD2017

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Although the stats are pretty clear but still it doesn't make any sense to me. From the plain stat for the year 2017, it seems they approved more PR than they had to. Around 20-305k more PR were approved in 2017 than their target. However, there is a catch, as they dont have any PR target but instead have admission target so it is safe to assume that they PR issued in 2017 also had 2018 in mind. Similarly ITA and PR approval in 2018 also will have 2019 in mind. I think majority of the ITA issued in the last 5 months will result in admission in 2019 and not in 2018.

I am saying this because I think CIC knows what they are doing and there is very little probability that they would end up issuing so much more than their target. Moreover, CIC has been very methodical in their approach this year so far, which makes me believe it is all part of their calculation. If it wasn't the case then I think there would have been much less ITA up until now. Already we have 31500 ITA issued in 5 months and It is most likely going as planned.
EXACTLY my point. This year will not be any different than 2017 in terms of numbers of ITA issued. We should expect around 80k ITAs till year end. Not letting the cut-off score go below a certain level is, however, a new strategy that IRCC has mastered with time. But the good things is, that so far the score has been coming down gradually. If the same happens in the next draw as well, we will have a stronger ray of hope for the upcoming draws.
 

NOMAD2017

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Mar 9, 2017
726
441
Mississauga, Toronto
Category........
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Paris
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AOR Received.
13-12-2018
Med's Done....
03-11-2019
Passport Req..
20-11-2019
VISA ISSUED...
07-12-2019
LANDED..........
01-10-2020
This looks comfortable to me :) So I agree with you! No need to stress out and wait for every second Wednesday with hopes :)
finally we are on the same page ;)
 

joelfernandes

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Feb 22, 2018
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Hi Guys

A tad lengthy one. Apologies for the same

Need some advise and guidance on my POF situation

I’m an overseas worker that sends intermittent remittances to my account in India.

The funds in the account are more than sufficient to meet the funds requirement.

However I’ve read on a couple of places and on forums that internment high value transactions in the account may be an issue and the source of the amounts may be queried.


The funds in question have all been sent across by myself from overseas and I have the bank transfer slips.


My concern is if wether such remittances would be queried ?

If I have to show local account details in the country I work it might be a problem as I haven’t Managed this account well and have loan and credit payments going out from this account.

Very concerned as a few members have already declined an ITA
Would appreciate any guidance on how I could sort this