Except that they did not knew that much what they were doing (specially first half of 2017). Why? Because 1 ITA does not equal 2 immigrants. There is the uncertainty about the family size, unique ITA (and not just those to the same person but also to the same family), then the cancellation and rejection rate and decline rate as well.Although the stats are pretty clear but still it doesn't make any sense to me. From the plain stat for the year 2017, it seems they approved more PR than they had to. Around 20-305k more PR were approved in 2017 than their target. However, there is a catch, as they dont have any PR target but instead have admission target so it is safe to assume that they PR issued in 2017 also had 2018 in mind. Similarly ITA and PR approval in 2018 also will have 2019 in mind. I think majority of the ITA issued in the last 5 months will result in admission in 2019 and not in 2018.
I am saying this because I think CIC knows what they are doing and there is very little probability that they would end up issuing so much more than their target. Moreover, CIC has been very methodical in their approach this year so far, which makes me believe it is all part of their calculation. If it wasn't the case then I think there would have been much less ITA up until now. Already we have 31500 ITA issued in 5 months and It is most likely going as planned.
All they had were data from 2015 and 2016. and those data were distorted (too small sample from the beginning of EE where people were less informed and made more mistakes in their application, and also that big chunk of LMIA ITA which were most of the time trades).
Once they begun with increasing amount (second half of 2016 and first half of 2017), they thought to make a buffer (where they can slow down PPR release if needed). But they overdid it with that buffer a bit. So with a buffer there, there is no need for 2017 madness.
And with these numbers there might be even additional call for an ease down (as that buffer might be too big and they also have goal of 80% within 6 months).
The only good news is that there is bigger stability of the system, so it shall be easier to estimate required CRS.
The bad news is, that requred CRS will still go slightly up (because the pool of active EE profiles is still growing in a decent pace).