Ray of Hope - 92nd Draw

[nc100]

Yes..effectively you have required balance+loan...which effectively is not the required balance..hence you require gift deed! Logic says so..experts of POF plz help!

Ok thanks

 

[lightning_crashes]

5 days more, fingers crossd n hoping 4 a good suprise

Good positive surprise pls!

 

[northern sunshine]

I got my FBI PCC for USA in March and got my ITA today. However I moved to a new apartment in the same state . DO I have to get a new PCC again or can I use the one I got 3 month back ? ANy suggestions please help

No. You can use the one from 3 months ago.

 

[SumH12]

What is the validity of Reference Letter from current employer, 6 months or more?

Hi, I would suggest no more than 1 month old... because it is your current job. That would be my advice, in the site I haven´t found a clarification regarding that.

 

[Ayogb]

With every draw, the conversation on this forum grows leaner. I hope it's our turn someday, someday soon.

All the best to everyone.

 

[special3220]

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/express-entry-year-end-report-2017.html

Early reading shows from 86k ITA sent in 2017, 109k PR application was received and 93k of them were approved and 65k Admission happened. So my early observation on this matter is the 30k more approved PR guys already landed in 2018. So a big chunk of 2018 admission target is already filled up by the applicant from 2017.

However, keep in mind that these fugues includes PNP candidates as well and Express Entry on the other hand manages 3 programs (Federal Skilled Worker Program, Canadian Experience Class, and Federal Skilled Trades Program). So in 2017 Admission through EE was only 51.8 (out of 65k, 13k were PNP.) This is well below the admission target of 69-73k for 2017. Now the report acknowledges this

Preliminary admissions data show that in 2017, Canada admitted more than 286,600 permanent residents, which is within the approved levels range of 280,000 to 320,000 for all immigration categories (Economic, Family, Refugees and Protected Persons, and Humanitarian and Other). While total admissions were within the approved range, admissions for the Federal High Skilled category fell below the low end of the approved 69,600 to 73,700 range. Express Entry manages 3 programs (Federal Skilled Worker Program, Canadian Experience Class, and Federal Skilled Trades Program) that fall under Federal High Skilled category.

Now even though the target was not filled in 2017 they did issue more their allotted no of PR Card. My rough calculation is

From 109K total Application for PR, 93k approved rest pending. Another 12-13k will get approved eventually, rest will get rejected. So in total 105k approved. Of that 105k, 20% is PNP, so we have 85k approved PR for Express Entry against the target of 69-73k.

I am not sure if this is a good sign or Not. This year their Target for EE is 74k. Now Since they didnt fulfill their target in 2017 (they are short by 18-20k), can we maybe consider 2018s target to be 93-95k?

Hope to see some other analysis on the report from experts.

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/express-entry-year-end-report-2017.html

Early reading shows from 86k ITA sent in 2017, 109k PR application was received and 93k of them were processed and 65k Admission happened. This figure of 65k was lower than their set target for 2017. However, many of the applicant had already received PR and they decided to land in a later date, so if they land in 2018 they will count as admission in 2018. Similarly Application received in the last 4 month of this year, most probably will land in 2019 so they will not take out from the 2018 target.

So my early observation on this matter is that around 65k were admitted out of 109k application. 30k more were approved but didnt land and they probably landed in 2018 already. The rest of them probably got approved already and will land in 2018 also. So a big chunk of 2018 admission target is already filled up by the applicant from 2017. I don't think this is a good sign for us.


Hope to see some good analysis on the report from experts.

i think your observation is off. For one i don't think admission for 2017 ITA can count for quotas for 2018 simply because they landed in 2018. The report does not say so hence i do not understand how you came to that conclusion.

 

[special3220]

i think your observation is off. For one i don't think admission for 2017 ITA can count for quotas for 2018 simply because they landed in 2018. The report does not say so hence i do not understand how you came to that conclusion.

Well I think it is quite simple actually, their targets are always admission target and not ITA Target. They issue ITA just to fill their admission target. Applications received at the end of a year usually get finalized in the following year and as such they are considered part of the admission target for that particular year when the actually landed despite the original application processing in a different year. Read the following line quoted from the report

The number of applications received are related to the changes in the number of invitations sent to candidates throughout 2017. During the first half of 2017, the volume of invitations issued rose to create a working inventory of applications. In the second quarter of 2017, IRCC had received 33,520 applications, which is about 2,000 applications less than the total applications received in 2015. As these applications were processed and final decisions were made, applications approved also increased to 33,953 by the third quarter of 2017. Visas issued in the third and fourth quarter of 2017 will have a major impact on admissions in 2018.

 

[Thay]

Well I think it is quite simple actually, their targets are always admission target and not ITA Target. They issue ITA just to fill their admission target. Applications received at the end of a year usually get finalized in the following year and as such they are considered part of the admission target for that particular year when the actually landed despite the original application processing in a different year. Read the following line quoted from the report

The number of applications received are related to the changes in the number of invitations sent to candidates throughout 2017. During the first half of 2017, the volume of invitations issued rose to create a working inventory of applications. In the second quarter of 2017, IRCC had received 33,520 applications, which is about 2,000 applications less than the total applications received in 2015. As these applications were processed and final decisions were made, applications approved also increased to 33,953 by the third quarter of 2017. Visas issued in the third and fourth quarter of 2017 will have a major impact on admissions in 2018.

BUT, following this logic third & fourth quarter of 2018 will not count towards this year and they are aware of it that's why they presented 3 years plan. Isn't that right?

 

[Thay]

Anyone here received FST stream ITA recently? I would like to track the timeline together!

 

[special3220]

BUT, following this logic third & fourth quarter of 2018 will not count towards this year and they are aware of it that's why they presented 3 years plan. Isn't that right?

Yes, since Majority of the application are now processed within 4 months, I think it is safe to assume that ITA issued in the last 5 months will result in admission in 2019 and not in 2018. But even then the fact that around 85k (For the 3 categories under express entry) applications were approved for admission when the target was only 69-73k makes me worried that the no of ITAs this year might be lot less compared to last year.

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

Well I think it is quite simple actually, their targets are always admission target and not ITA Target. They issue ITA just to fill their admission target. Applications received at the end of a year usually get finalized in the following year and as such they are considered part of the admission target for that particular year when the actually landed despite the original application processing in a different year. Read the following line quoted from the report

The number of applications received are related to the changes in the number of invitations sent to candidates throughout 2017. During the first half of 2017, the volume of invitations issued rose to create a working inventory of applications. In the second quarter of 2017, IRCC had received 33,520 applications, which is about 2,000 applications less than the total applications received in 2015. As these applications were processed and final decisions were made, applications approved also increased to 33,953 by the third quarter of 2017. Visas issued in the third and fourth quarter of 2017 will have a major impact on admissions in 2018.

Hmmm ok i see your point now. But some how i do not think thats fair (at the bolded part). There a 9month time frame from when one recieves ITA to getting PPR i.e 90days to submit documents and 6months for processing. Most time than not there would be a carry over. I should expect that quotas allocated should count for the year it was alloted.

 

[special3220]

Hmmm ok i see your point now. But some how i do not think thats fair (at the bolded part). There a 9month time frame from when one recieves ITA to getting PPR i.e 90days to submit documents and 6months for processing. Most time than not there would be a carry over. I should expect that quotas allocated should count for the year it was alloted.

Yes it may seem that way but it is always like that and if you consider two years together, then they balance themselves out. I know that this year up to February 28, already 19,120 admission took place and all of which were applicants from 2017. Now these 19k will eat out from the allotted quota of 74k for this year. CIC also knows this and since they failed with their admission target last year maybe they will decide to consider this 19k as part of 2017 by factoring it out from 2018. We can only assume at this point of time.

 

[rashpal26]

I got my FBI PCC for USA in March and got my ITA today. However I moved to a new apartment in the same state . DO I have to get a new PCC again or can I use the one I got 3 month back ? ANy suggestions please help

Yes you can, PCC is valid for 6 months for u as you are in same country.

 

[Avengers]

we may see 3 draws in June; since 2017 stats are released n they have clear picture ...moreover all June ITA will land in 2019...
In any way 437 will breach in June or 1st draw of July