Ray of Hope - 89th Draw

[ishq74]

I mysteriously received an ITA in yesterday's draw despite having a CRS score of only 431. Could this be an error? Has this ever happened to anyone before? Should I:

1. Submit my application and hope for the best.
OR
2. Call CIC and let them know the error.

Any advice given would be greatly appreciated. Thanks

Under section A11.2, an officer may not issue a visa to an applicant who did not or does not meet the Express Entry minimum entry criteria (MEC) or did not or does not possess the qualifications for which they received their CRS score at the time when

• the invitation to apply (ITA) was issued; or
• the e-APR was received by IRCC.

When reviewing an application, processing offices must determine if

• the applicant possesses the qualifications that they declared in their e-APR, as corroborated by the applicant’s supporting documentation; and
• when the applicant submits their e-APR, the information provided in their Express Entry profile has not materially changed to the degree that the applicant would not have been issued an ITA in that round of invitations.

Accordingly, officers should refuse an application under section A11.2 if it is determined that

• at the time of the ITA or e-APR, the applicant did not or does not meet the MEC, which includes the requirements of the program to which they were invited to apply; or
• the applicant’s recalculated CRS score has fallen below that of the lowest-ranked candidate invited to apply in that round of invitations.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/operational-bulletins-manuals/permanent-residence/express-entry/assessing-electronic-application-on-section-a11-2.html

 

[Karthick_88]

Your distribution between 431 and 440 is pretty good based on the info we have. However, three draws in three weeks may not happen. If there are back to back draws, let's say on 9th and 16th, then there might be a two week gap until the next one (May 30th) or may be on 9th and then 23rd and 30th. If, somehow, you prediction turns out to be true and we have three in a row, the scores could drop down to 433.

Just gave a picture there whether we can reach 432. With the way IRCC gone about their business post November, I will be satisfied with atleast 2 draws in may.

 

[noname7]

Just gave a picture there whether we can reach 432. With the way IRCC gone about their business post November, I will be satisfied with atleast 2 draws in may.

There will definitely be two draws in May (as there are 5 Wednesdays). I hope there are three draws. I am sitting at 435 and would love three 3500 draws and hopefully that would bring the score down to 435/434.

 

[Karthick_88]

There will definitely be two draws in May (as there are 5 Wednesdays). I hope there are three draws. I am sitting at 435 and would love three 3500 draws and hopefully that would bring the score down to 435/434.

I am hoping too for 3 draws. I just said that because they have a bad practice of having PNP and FST specific draws somewhere in between.
Guess IRCC made me sound like a pessimist

 

[Alex SA2C]

I am at 438 right now with CLB9, missed CLB10 because of .5 less in writing. Do you think it's worth it to give the exam again to improve the score or just wait for the cutoff score to drop?

You can submit for a remark. I think it takes about 6 weeks

 

[Thay]

You can submit for a remark. I think it takes about 6 weeks

I wouldn't do anything before next draw or submit for remark...

 

[SumH12]

I wouldn't do anything before next draw or submit for remark...

I agree. You are too close to the last lowest CRS score from 88th draw... If you sbmit for remark, it made the IELTS on hold so if you get an ITA, you won ´t be able to accept it if you haven´t resolve the issue at that time (ITA date)... that is at least what I undertand.

 

[raj_modi13]

Hey guys, is there a forum/thread where post ITA questions are being answered?
Any help is greatly appreciated!

 

[calky360]

No one could predict this even IRCC at the moment I guess.
But it will be interesting to see once the score reaches 436-438, because on an average approx 3500 ppl are entering with a score of more than 435/436 every two weeks.. so the CRS will become stagnant hence there is a chance of them doing something different. In the process score could go lower or higher. We have to believe it will go southwards.

Where are you getting 3500ppl on average above 435 entering the pool? Based on a previous post by Alexross (see quoted below), there is not this many people entering the pool. From those figures below I calculated that on average approximately 3050ppl entering the pool above 430 and 2550ppl above 440 are entering the pool every 2 weeks (so the number above 435 would be somewhere in the middle of that). Further, the most recent two draws show a downtrend in new applicants, so it could be fewer going forward if that continues. Based on that, it is very possible that scores could fall below 430 this year.

Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th (2017):
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th (2017) to Jan 4th (2018)
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

from Jan 18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day

From Feb 1st to Feb 15th:
above 440:227 per day
above 430:257 per day
above 410:278 per day

From Feb 15th to Mar 8th:
above 440:226 per day
above 430:261 per day
above 410:279 per day

From Mar 8th to Mar 20th:
above 440:181 per day
above 430:226 per day
above 410:252 per day

From Mar 20th to Apr 4th:
above 440:196 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:235 per day

From April 4th to April 19th
above 440:163 per day
above 430:187 per day
above 410:213 per day

 

[SumH12]

Hi all,
Our CRS profile is 434. After the 88th draw, our hope has risen again .
It has been a long ride since we started at 375 last year. But, my husband retook his IELTS and I did the TEF exam instead IELTS, and we manage to improve the score on April to our current 434.

We are hoping for back to back draws so that in the next couple of months the minimum score goes down to low 430s. We are really trying to stay positive.

And, while keeping a positive mind, we started to read attentively all the requirements. There is some docs that we are confused if they are really mandatory or not.

For example: Work contracts.

If we succeed to obtain very detailed employer reference letters, could it be acceptable to not present copies of the contracts? We may have some issues to obtain them. It will be very difficult to receive past contracts from former employers and our current employers may also disagree, alluding to privacy and disclosure issues from the companies. So, could full detailed employer reference letters plus tax stayments be accepted instead of contracts?

Thanks,

 

[Aarti123]

How? MBA add 50 point?

if u have an mba that is assessed by one of the instituitions on the cic website , you will get 50 points. what is your highest education?

 

[Thay]

QUICK QUESTION:

How long does it take to reflect update in submitted EE profile ?

 

[Aarti123]

QUICK QUESTION:

How long does it take to reflect update in submitted EE profile ?

I changed education once and it took a couple of minutes

 

[Thay]

I changed education once and it took a couple of minutes

Thank you! I accidentally cut 1 year of my work exp damn drop down menu!

 

[Aarti123]

Thank you! I accidentally cut 1 year of my work exp damn drop down menu!

Lol that should be a quick fix. No worries