Ray of Hope - 88th Draw

[Thay]

So i looked at above calculations and it looks like on the day of Draw - April 11th we had approx. 1928 Applicants between 441-450 CRS
(
That being said there was 1420 applicants on or above 451 CRS entering the pool between March 27 and April 4th (9 days) Average 158 per day.
There was 7 more days till draw so on the day of draw estimated pool looked like:

451+ - 2524 Applicants (158 applicants entering daily)
441-450 - 1928 Applicants (38 applicants entering daily)
431-440 - 6692 Applicants (20 applicants entering daily)

Now we had draw of 3500 so we come down to:

451+ = 0 Applicants ....After the draw day
441-450 = 952 Applicants .... After the draw day
431-450 = 6692 Applicants ... After the draw day

Lets estimate what the pool will look like on possible draw dates:

7 Days after April 18 (very unlikely)

451 = 1106 Applicants
441-450 = 1218 Applicants
431-440 = 6832 Applicants

In this scenario you can clearly see that CUT OFF would be 440 or lower. Could be anything between 338 to 440, it really depends on where exactly applicants are stuck in 431-440....

14 Days after April 25 (likely the draw day)
451 = 2212 Applicants
441-450 = 1484 Applicants
431-440 = 6972 Applicants

In this scenario we have about 196 applicants left in range of 441-450 after the draw day. That being said CRS CUT-OFF could be 441 with TBRULE or 442.



DRAW ON MAY 2nd (14 Days after April 25, second draw within 14 days gap)
451 = 2212 Applicants (AGAIN)
441 - 450 = 728 Applicants
431 - 440 = 7252 Applicants

In this scenario 560 Applicants from range 431 - 440 will receive ITA's so it most likely going to be 440 CRS CUT-OFF


I will work on more clear estimate.

Looking at this every draw of 3500 ITA's is giving us about 1288 ITA's for people on 450 and under, usually we will see about 532 people entering the pool in range of 441-450. That will give us 756 ITAS for people between 431-440 and we have 280 applicants entering that range.

Conclusion is that after 2 more draws of 3500 ITA's, each draw will take about 500 apllicants from range 431-440 after the 280 entering it (IT'S REALLY GOOD). However it's still about 14 draws after one on May 2nd to clear the pool of 431+

I guess HOPE IS BACK for everyone this year. 431+ Pool should be cleared by October 2018.

My estiamte is that it will happen earlier than Oct 2018 because of at least 2 back to back draws that will completely change the game. CHEERS

 

[Alikazmi]

Hello guyz,
Need help here.
I answered the question and found that my education details part is empty, I entered my education details and submitted. After that I got a message that I am not eligible.
Before that my score was 432 and been in pool sine june 2017.

 

[Alikazmi]

Guys check your EE profile. I hadnt changed anything but still saw ttoday that there were some changes made in my profile. I think they added one question in the language section.

Can ***** communicate in English and/or French?

This appeared in both mine and my spouses Language section. I selected English and then submitted my profile again.

Hello guyz,
Need help here.
I answered the question and found that my education details part is empty, I entered my education details and submitted. After that I got a message that I am not eligible.
Before that my score was 432 and been in pool sine june 2017.

 

[special3220]

Hello guyz,
Need help here.
I answered the question and found that my education details part is empty, I entered my education details and submitted. After that I got a message that I am not eligible.
Before that my score was 432 and been in pool sine june 2017.

Please check if you have entered the information correctly. Uusually when you enter your education details the information is saved near the bottom of education page in the education history section. Next time you login you just have to select that box form education history. you will not see your information if you do not select that box in the bottom.

Maybe you have entered same information twice or accidentally selected wrong options somewhere. I just logged into my account and everything seems normal for me.

 

[hp73901]

Hey Folks,

I'm creating my express entry profile and for the work experience part I need some advice.

1) I'm above 450 CRS with just 2 year work experience that is till end of 2016. I can add 2 more years but want to avoid the hassle of documentation as it won't matter.
Can I do that ? Is it fine ?

2) I will be claiming points for self employed work in a partnership firm. What kind of documents do I need to provide ?
According to what I've read
A) Establishment - Partnership Deed / VAT / GST registration
B) Letters from Suppliers and Customers.
How many letters in all should be provided?
And what should be written in these letters?
C) I know it is very critical to show duties and responsibilities, how can I do that in my case?

3)I can count my work experience from date of completion of my course or the date of my convocation? As there is a gap of around 6 months between these 2 dates.

Thanks in advance guys.

 

[at4446]

This is an absolute gem! It answers so many questions.
Now we can be pretty certain that they are only just starting the new quota. The only concern would be if they decide to distribute it a bit more evenly than last year. However it is definitely a glimmer of hope for all of us sitting under the 440's
Exciting times are ahead!

I would believe this if there is a back to back draw or the next one would be 3500 ITA! it can be an amazing news !!

 

[at4446]

So i looked at above calculations and it looks like on the day of Draw - April 11th we had approx. 1928 Applicants between 441-450 CRS
(
That being said there was 1420 applicants on or above 451 CRS entering the pool between March 27 and April 4th (9 days) Average 158 per day.
There was 7 more days till draw so on the day of draw estimated pool looked like:

451+ - 2524 Applicants (158 applicants entering daily)
441-450 - 1928 Applicants (38 applicants entering daily)
431-440 - 6692 Applicants (20 applicants entering daily)

Now we had draw of 3500 so we come down to:

451+ = 0 Applicants ....After the draw day
441-450 = 952 Applicants .... After the draw day
431-450 = 6692 Applicants ... After the draw day

Lets estimate what the pool will look like on possible draw dates:

7 Days after April 18 (very unlikely)

451 = 1106 Applicants
441-450 = 1218 Applicants
431-440 = 6832 Applicants

In this scenario you can clearly see that CUT OFF would be 440 or lower. Could be anything between 338 to 440, it really depends on where exactly applicants are stuck in 431-440....

14 Days after April 25 (likely the draw day)
451 = 2212 Applicants
441-450 = 1484 Applicants
431-440 = 6972 Applicants

In this scenario we have about 196 applicants left in range of 441-450 after the draw day. That being said CRS CUT-OFF could be 441 with TBRULE or 442.



DRAW ON MAY 9 (14 Days after April 25, second draw within 14 days gap)
451 = 2212 Applicants (AGAIN)
441 - 450 = 728 Applicants
431 - 440 = 7252 Applicants

In this scenario 560 Applicants from range 431 - 440 will receive ITA's so it most likely going to be 440 CRS CUT-OFF


I will work on more clear estimate.

I cannot wait for 440!!! pleasee come soon

 

[Kurco]

So i looked at above calculations and it looks like on the day of Draw - April 11th we had approx. 1928 Applicants between 441-450 CRS
(
That being said there was 1420 applicants on or above 451 CRS entering the pool between March 27 and April 4th (9 days) Average 158 per day.
There was 7 more days till draw so on the day of draw estimated pool looked like:

451+ - 2524 Applicants (158 applicants entering daily)
441-450 - 1928 Applicants (38 applicants entering daily)
431-440 - 6692 Applicants (20 applicants entering daily)

Now we had draw of 3500 so we come down to:

451+ = 0 Applicants ....After the draw day
441-450 = 952 Applicants .... After the draw day
431-450 = 6692 Applicants ... After the draw day

Lets estimate what the pool will look like on possible draw dates:

7 Days after April 18 (very unlikely)

451 = 1106 Applicants
441-450 = 1218 Applicants
431-440 = 6832 Applicants

In this scenario you can clearly see that CUT OFF would be 440 or lower. Could be anything between 338 to 440, it really depends on where exactly applicants are stuck in 431-440....

14 Days after April 25 (likely the draw day)
451 = 2212 Applicants
441-450 = 1484 Applicants
431-440 = 6972 Applicants

In this scenario we have about 196 applicants left in range of 441-450 after the draw day. That being said CRS CUT-OFF could be 441 with TBRULE or 442.



DRAW ON MAY 9 (14 Days after April 25, second draw within 14 days gap)
451 = 2212 Applicants (AGAIN)
441 - 450 = 728 Applicants
431 - 440 = 7252 Applicants

In this scenario 560 Applicants from range 431 - 440 will receive ITA's so it most likely going to be 440 CRS CUT-OFF


I will work on more clear estimate.

Thanks dude. Appreciate the effort here.

 

[Midnight Blessing]

Last October I read some interesting posts from one of the expert-senior members of this forum @BillHyatt on "Ray of Hope 74th Draw" thread. According to him Government of Canada confirmed that Targets runs from January to December, however, plans run from April to March each year. Quotas of Provinces are renewed on 1 Jan each year.
So targets set are from April to March while target count is from Jan-Dec. GoC states that these targets are just a guidance and they will keep going even if PR crosses the Upper Limits, so they are estimates not quotas like Provinces.

I hardly understood him then but now I can see the clear picture! 3500 ITAs are the start of 2018-19 quota implementation from April. Now we should see back to back draws and increase of Invitation number. You can read those posts in links given below-

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw

Hi @ishq74 ,

how are you mate? Thanks for the post, you dont have any idea how much hope did your post spread in us.

BillHayat does have a very interesting news indeed but we have seen comparatively very lower number of itas given in 2016 April-December but starting from January 2017 the ita grew in huge numbers till May, and then again from June it shrunk ed. Its quite hard to find out any consistency and breakdown between plan implementation and targets by seeing the previous values.

Having said that, it is indeed a navigation point for his statement after we had the last draw with 3500 as rarely does CIC rises the quota that much by a whooping 500 within a single draw. I really hope whatever he said is actually the case in this year too and we are able to see rising draw size with back to back draws in the coming months.

 

[VIJAYMAGHNANI]

Hey Folks,

I'm creating my express entry profile and for the work experience part I need some advice.

1) I'm above 450 CRS with just 2 year work experience that is till end of 2016. I can add 2 more years but want to avoid the hassle of documentation as it won't matter.
Can I do that ? Is it fine ?

2) I will be claiming points for self employed work in a partnership firm. What kind of documents do I need to provide ?
According to what I've read
A) Establishment - Partnership Deed / VAT / GST registration
B) Letters from Suppliers and Customers.
How many letters in all should be provided?
And what should be written in these letters?
C) I know it is very critical to show duties and responsibilities, how can I do that in my case?

3)I can count my work experience from date of completion of my course or the date of my convocation? As there is a gap of around 6 months between these 2 dates.

Thanks in advance guys.

My position is exactly same as yours ....

Seniors please advice particularly documents for self employed...

 

[drkular]

T

In my case draw was at around 10:40 AM UTC and I had created my profile 2:30 AM UTC on the same day as the draw. Basically 8 hours before the draw. I got ITA.

Thanks smcan2014 and congratulations on the ITA!

 

[KingKurly]

i am so tired as i have taken ielts 3 times and its so depressing they keep on fluctuating points

I took IELTS 6 times in 2 years time. It was mighty frustrating as I studied and lived in an English speaking country for 7.5 years. Only in my 5th and 6th attempt I cracked the CLB 9, that too after requesting EOR. Keep fighting passionately and stay hungry to achieve! Don't feel frustrated, stay determined and believe in yourself that you can do it!

 

[KingKurly]

Since November 15, 5 draws happened with 2750 ITAs and then 4 with 3000 ITAS, I think it quite safe to assume that we will see few more draws with 3500 ITAs most likely. Well at least I am hoping for that.

Most likely considering the trend of last few months. This is the only consistent thing about IRCC in recent times and I believe it is quite safe to assume that 3500 ITA will continue for next few draws! Let's wait and see.

 

[Swordwater]

Please check if you have entered the information correctly. Uusually when you enter your education details the information is saved near the bottom of education page in the education history section. Next time you login you just have to select that box form education history. you will not see your information if you do not select that box in the bottom.

Maybe you have entered same information twice or accidentally selected wrong options somewhere. I just logged into my account and everything seems normal for me.

The thing is he can't do all these now, no has to recreate the profile.

 

[ShahidWS]

Last October I read some interesting posts from one of the expert-senior members of this forum @BillHyatt on "Ray of Hope 74th Draw" thread. According to him Government of Canada confirmed that Targets runs from January to December, however, plans run from April to March each year. Quotas of Provinces are renewed on 1 Jan each year.
So targets set are from April to March while target count is from Jan-Dec. GoC states that these targets are just a guidance and they will keep going even if PR crosses the Upper Limits, so they are estimates not quotas like Provinces.

I hardly understood him then but now I can see the clear picture! 3500 ITAs are the start of 2018-19 quota implementation from April. Now we should see back to back draws and increase of Invitation number. You can read those posts in links given below-

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw

Thanks for the post. This actually makes a lot of sense now looking at the numbers. Was looking into the April 2017 draws, that's when they went berserk and had 3 back to back draws and the trend of high no of ITA's continued until May end after which they kind of slowed down.
Hoping for the same this year as well, although due to the increased competition this year, it might not go down as low as 413. But lets hope for the best!!