Ray of Hope - 82nd Draw

[tjsecondtry]

Just got back to Toronto after a brief visit with my husband. Lots of snuggles, lol. But it appears no draw. Haven't caught up with the thread yet. Usually I make myself go all the way through, but class will start shortly, so I cheated.

 

[Thay]

I really don't get why they are showing us CRS breakdown from 6 days before draw, it's hard to get any idea based on that.. Would be much better if score distribution details are posted as of day of draw after it happened.

 

[shersingh]

Here are some calculations I have done based on the pool distribution as to the number of people entering the pool per day. There has been a steady decrease since November 9th:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th:

above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:

above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:

above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th to Jan 4th
above 440:161
above 430:195
above 410:211

If the downward trend of declining new pool entry continues, or even if the number of new entrants stay the same, I think a steady state of 2750 ITAs per draw and 2 draws per month has to result in a steady drop in CRS cut off of about 3 to 5 points per month.

Any downward trend in November is probably due to holiday season and things will come back to usual now. The only way the scores would ever reach even 435 is if the intake is increased.

 

[dimp75]

One thing is consistent with CIC they are so....unpredictable

 

[alexross]

I really don't get why they are showing us CRS breakdown from 6 days before draw, it's hard to get any idea based on that.. Would be much better if score distribution details are posted as of day of draw after it happened.

You are right it is a little tricky, but you can still calculate what you need.

For example as per the pool distribution:

all those with CRS points 440 and above on jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
all those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891

we know that the jan 4th value is = dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
so we have net entrants between jan 4th and dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740

 

[prongs13]

ITAs issued are more than intake targets

i misread 75000 as ITA target. well, if target is roughly 75K, that's bad ! if we assume only 70 % of ITAs convert to PR...and per PR...1.6-1.9 landing(person) is represented.....it is really depressing news.

new target is 300K +10 % ? out of which how much will be through express entry ? can anyone speculate ?

 

[alexross]

i misread 75000 as ITA target. well, if target is roughly 75K, that's bad ! if we assume only 70 % of ITAs convert to PR...and per PR...1.6-1.9 landing(person) is represented.....it is really depressing news.

new target is 300K +10 % ? out of which how much will be through express entry ? can anyone speculate ?

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2018.html

as per this link the target 74,900 is for FST, FSW and CEC. As per my understanding this entire number is through express entry. additionally there is another additional 55,000 for PNP out of which roughly 50% maybe through Express entry.

according to the numbers you gave, we can expect ((74900/0.7)/1.9) for FST+FSW+CEC. so that is 56315 ITAs.

additionally we have another 50% of 55000 for PNP, so 27500 landings. So another( 27500/0.7)/1.9) ITAs. This is equal to another 20676.

so the total ITAs we can expect through express entries = 56315 + 20676 = 77000 ITAs approximately for the year 2018.

I would really appreciate if anyone can go through and make any corrections, thank you!

 

[Thay]

You are right it is a little tricky, but you can still calculate what you need.

For example as per the pool distribution:

all those with CRS points 440 and above on jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
all those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891

we know that the jan 4th value is = dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
so we have net entrants between jan 4th and dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740

Looks like this might be IRCC logic, that would explain 2750 ITA's per draw.

 

[Thay]

Would't ITA received trough PNP count as PNP landing? Who Knows....

 

[alexross]

Would't ITA received trough PNP count as PNP landing? Who Knows....

You are correct it definitely would. But ITA through PNP (express entry) is still a part of our 2750 ITA count. that is the part of the CRS distribution 601-1200. So I thought it is appropriate to include that in our ITA count since it will help us trying to figure out how many total ITAs to expect this year.

 

[Thay]

You are correct it definitely would. But ITA through PNP (express entry) is still a part of our 2750 ITA count. that is the part of the CRS distribution 601-1200. So I thought it is appropriate to include that in our ITA count since it will help us trying to figure out how many total ITAs to expect this year.

If this is right then a PNP ITA received trough express entry is not part of 74,900 PR target for 2018. It would be part of 55,000 PNP PR target.

Keep in mind that total economic immigrants target for 2018 is 177,500 not 74,900

75k is a number for Federal Skilled Worker Program, Federal Skilled Trades Program and Canadian Experience Class not people going trough OINP for example.

 

[alexross]

If this is right then a PNP ITA received trough express entry is not part of 74,900 PR target for 2018. It would be part of 55,000 PNP PR target.

Keep in mind that total economic immigrants target for 2018 is 177,500 not 74,900

75k is a number for Federal Skilled Worker Program, Federal Skilled Trades Program and Canadian Experience Class not people going trough OINP for example.

Correct, that is why I calculated total ITAs for federal skilled workers separately and for PNP separately then added them up to get the total ITAs.

Since the other post mentioned an ITA rejection rate of 0.7 and 1.9 immigrants per ITA, 74900 landings require 56315 ITAs.

Similarly 55000 landings from PNP of which I assume 50% through EE. Again I assume rejection at 0.7 and 1.9 immigrants per ITA to arrive at 20676 for PNP ITAs

So that is 56315 ITAs for federal skilled workers and 20676 ITAs for PNP through EE. So together 77000 ITAs.

But again looking at past ITAs it looks like a little less than 300 ITAs per draw is for PNP. If we go with those numbers we will have roughly 6000 to 7000 PNP ITAs this year with 24+ draws. That would mean only about 64000 ITAs for 2018 (56315 fed skilled worker + less than 8000 for PNP). Maybe some one could shed light on how much of the PNPs are expected to go through Express Entry.

 

[shersingh]

I am going to keep watching for the next draw and if it is again 2750 then I don't see there is any ray of hope left for people under 430.

 

[alexross]

I am going to keep watching for the next draw and if it is again 2750 then I don't see there is any ray of hope left for people under 430.

Well, looking at the past data available, it suggests every draw of 2750 with a 3 week gap will keep CRS steady and every draw of 2750 with a 2 week gap will drop the score by 3 to 5 points. Assuming 24 draws or 2 draws per month, only 4 or 5 draws can have three week gap so almost 20 draws will have only 2 week gap. So we should see moderate CRS drops in about 5 out of 6 draws. I think there is a very good chance of CRS steadily going to 425 or below by August. Of course the lower the score the slower the drop in cutoff due to accumalation of candidates at the level. There are also lot of factors that may affect such as increased number of candidates entering the pool so we cannot be over confident, but I think chances look good.

 

[Aypn]

Guys check out last years post during Jan 2017. Similar mood and pessimism were present with people even whose CRS were 440 and above.
Hold on tight - definitely, they will increase the count or the number

There is a tough resistance around 430 and that will be breached in few draws unless there is a surprise